On November 22, BTC reached a high of $99,660, just a stone's throw away from the $100,000 mark. This has also pushed the total crypto market cap to a new all-time high of over $3.5 trillion, with Bitcoin's market dominance exceeding 55%. The market sentiment index shows that it is still in the "Greed" phase, with significantly increased market activity and most altcoins seeing substantial gains following the overall market trend.
However, the market has now thrown a wet blanket on the feverish investors, with BTC retracing below $94,000, leading to massive liquidations of long contracts, while the hype around the Meme projects has also cooled down in recent days.
Altcoins have a great opportunity for a catch-up rally
Only when BTC corrects can altcoins have the space to catch up. The mindset of retail investors differs from that of institutions - institutions typically prefer the leading projects in each sector, while retail investors are more keen on finding opportunities to "overtake on the bend". Therefore, in the current market where BTC is dominating, many altcoins have a strong demand for a catch-up rally. Retail investors are seizing this opportunity, channeling funds into the altcoin market, driving up altcoin prices, which in turn lays the foundation for BTC to break through $100,000.
If the market only sees BTC rising independently, retail investors may stagnate as they are unable to keep up with the pace of the "big pie". However, the catch-up rally in altcoins is more likely to attract retail capital, further propelling the rise of BTC. Through this interaction of capital and sentiment, the rotation between BTC and altcoins will form a typical "altcoin bull market".
Can this altcoin rebound herald the arrival of an "altcoin season"?
Unless there are major applications emerging in the altcoin ecosystem, the altcoins are still in a rebound and catch-up rally. BTC consolidating around $100,000, meme coins taking a breather, and capital rotating into the altcoin sector are driving the current market movement.
During this period, many obscure old-school coins have seen significant price surges, as their institutional holdings are concentrated and easily manipulated. From a fundamental perspective, ETH's on-chain activity and demand have not changed, gas fees are still at historical lows, inflationary pressure remains, and altcoins with high FDV still suffer from the drawbacks of continuous unlocking. So the current rally is still a rebound and catch-up.
It's important to note that this altcoin rally is just a rebound, and it's advisable to take profits after a decent gain, unless there are major application innovations in Ethereum, a trend-changing bull market arrives, or new innovative altcoin sectors emerge for the market to speculate on.
How to select quality Meme coins?
First, look at the project's narrative ability. Only Meme coins with a strong community and sustained topicality can stand out in the market. For example, Doge is a typical case, where Musk's promotion has kept it simmering in the market.
Secondly, pay attention to the operational capabilities of the project team and community. Projects that can proactively drive the project narrative and make substantive moves are usually more viable, like the recent Neiro project, which was able to create hotspots in the community and media, attracting capital and traffic.
Finally, see if there are strong market makers. Capital and liquidity support are key to the success of any project.
Grayscale holdings analysis:
Layer1 tracks: APT, TIA, CORE, ATOM, TON, TRX, ICP, KAS, VET, OM, CELO, SEI
Layer2 tracks: OP, ARB, STRK, POL, MNT, IMX, METIS
DeFi sector: JUP, ONDO, ENA, AERO, PENDLE, UMA, INJ
Cross-chain: RUNE, NEON
DePIN tracks: AR, HNT, AKT
AI tracks: FET, WLD
Meme sector: DOGE
Note: Grayscale holdings do not necessarily mean big gains, as exemplified by the performance of FIL.
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