Bitcoin's surge to $100,000 failed, when will the next assault begin?
On November 23, Bitcoin reached a record high of $99,500, but failed to break the $100,000 milestone, and then began to correct, with the lowest point yesterday at $90,800, a correction of nearly $9,000. In the short term, will Bitcoin continue to assault the $100,000 mark?
What are the views on the upcoming trend of the crypto industry?
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin may consolidate in the range of $85,000 to $88,700, and then resume its upward trend
On November 27, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out that Bitcoin's recent correction was affected by multiple factors, including changes in the US Treasury market and the upcoming monthly options expiration.
Kendrick attributed the recent market volatility (including the decline in Bitcoin and the rebound in long-term US Treasuries) to the decrease in the US Treasury term premium. The term premium is the additional return that investors demand for holding long-term bonds compared to continuously rolling over short-term bonds.
He said that since Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against the instability of traditional financial markets, the increase in confidence in US Treasuries may reduce the appeal of Bitcoin in the short term, leading to a drop in its price.
"This is important for Bitcoin because one of Bitcoin's core uses is to hedge against problems in traditional financial markets, especially those related to banking or government bonds," Kendrick said in a report on Tuesday. "So a lower term premium will weigh on Bitcoin, at least temporarily."
Nevertheless, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Kendrick reiterated his year-end target of $125,000 for Bitcoin and predicted that the Bitcoin price will further grow to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Kendrick pointed out that according to Deribit data, there are 18,000 BTC in outstanding option contracts with strike prices between $85,000 and $100,000, which may limit price volatility before the options expire. "This usually means that as the options expiration approaches, the price will stagnate."
However, he said that despite the correction in Bitcoin, institutional investor demand remains strong. Kendrick noted that since the US election earlier this month, spot Bitcoin ETFs have cumulatively purchased about 77,000 BTC, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) has additionally purchased 134,000 BTC.
"MicroStrategy's purchases show no signs of slowing, and they are unlikely to sell, but the average purchase price for spot ETFs and MicroStrategy since the US election is $88,700. This may become a short-term support level, and Bitcoin may consolidate between $85,000 and $88,700 before resuming its upward trajectory."
Pantera founder: Bitcoin price may reach $740,000 in April 2028
On November 27, Pantera founder Dan Morehead predicted that with the return of Donald Trump, the president-elect who is "supportive of blockchain", to the White House, Bitcoin could soar to $740,000.
Morehead said that Pantera's Bitcoin Fund, which focuses on cryptocurrencies, has generated a historical return of 131,165% since its inception in 2013. "Bitcoin has gone through three orders of magnitude of growth," he said, "and another one seems possible."
According to Morehead's theory, Bitcoin has been on a trend line, and if it continues to grow at the same rate, its price may reach $740,000 by April 2028. Since Pantera started investing, Bitcoin has almost doubled in value every year, with a compound annual growth rate of about 88%.
He added: "Relative to the $500 trillion in financial assets, that number is not unimaginable." At a price of $740,000, Bitcoin's market capitalization would reach $15 trillion.
10x Research founder: Still believes Bitcoin will break through $100,000 in the coming weeks
Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10x Research, told Cointelegraph on November 26 that "Bitcoin is consolidating ahead of the Thanksgiving long weekend as traders expect implied volatility to decline."
He added that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to weaken towards the end of the month, which "helps alleviate its overbought technical condition."
He said that broader macroeconomic factors, such as strong economic growth data, may lead the Fed to keep rates stable in December, surprising the market and impacting high-risk assets, but he remains optimistic about the coming weeks.
"Despite these short-term headwinds, we still believe Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 milestone in the coming weeks, and we remain optimistic about the prospects for 2025."
BTC Markets Head of Analysis: Bitcoin's current decline is a healthy correction
Charlie Sherry, Head of Financial and Crypto Asset Analysis at BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's recent drop to $93,000 "is best understood as part of its historical pattern of a healthy correction after a significant rally."
He said this pullback "indicates a cyclical pattern, allowing the market to consolidate gains and delever before further upside," and predicted that this could be the last assault before Bitcoin reaches six figures. "The drop to $92,600 fits this trend, suggesting this may be the 'last assault' before Bitcoin ultimately breaks through $100,000."
Sherry warned that if the correction intensifies, BTC could test the $88,000 to $90,000 range, which is a key support level based on recent price action.
He added that "however, a deeper correction of 20% to 30% could bring Bitcoin closer to $80,000, a level still consistent with its previous bull market behavior."
ZX Squared Capital co-founder: Expects Bitcoin to break the $100,000 milestone "in the coming months"
CK Zheng, co-founder of ZX Squared Capital, said that $100,000 is a strong resistance level for Bitcoin recently. He told Cointelegraph: "Some long-term holders may choose to reduce their Bitcoin exposure below this psychological barrier, and the market may enter a consolidation phase after the massive volatility following the US election."
"We believe the correction is healthy, but the magnitude of the correction will be quite small. A 20% correction will provide a great entry point for new long-term investors."
Zheng said the company expects Bitcoin to break the $100,000 milestone "in the coming months" as the new Trump administration will push for crypto-friendly rules and regulations in the US.
Is it Ethereum's moment?
Wintermute analyst: Funds are shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and the derivatives market indicates investors expect Ethereum to rise further
On November 26, an analyst at crypto market maker Wintermute said that funds are shifting from BTC to ETH, and the derivatives market indicates that investors expect Ethereum to rise further. Over the weekend, Ether's open interest surged, and implied volatility also rose, with a clear increase in demand for call options, indicating growing confidence among derivatives traders. The analyst said the shift from Bitcoin to Ethereum is characterized by a sharp rise in Ethereum's implied volatility, with the put-call skew reaching its highest level in 12 months, indicating investors' strong preference for upside risk.
According to the Wintermute analyst, traders are actively driving the market higher through bullish buying. The Wintermute analyst noted in their weekly crypto market update: In the past few trading days, funds have flowed into Ethereum, as open interest on weekend trading platforms has surged to record highs.
1confirmation founder: Ethereum is the world's first "triple-attribute asset"
On November 26, the founder of 1confirmation, Nick Tomaino, posted on X stating that "Ethereum is the world's first 'triple-attribute asset':
· Capital asset: represents ownership stake in the developer ecosystem driving crypto innovation (such as DeFi, Non-Fungible Token, prediction markets, decentralized social, etc.);
· Store of value: lower inflation rate than BTC, and is the base asset for decentralized finance;
· Yield asset: with an annualized yield of around 3%."
Where do you think BTC will bottom out this time?
