This round of the main line is relatively clear:
1/ Memecoin and AI are absolutely the main line tracks
This year's Memecoin is very different from the past, it has gone beyond the concept of 'on-chain meme', corresponding to the DeFi concept of 2020, which is essentially a brand-new asset issuance method, all infra and services must depend on asset issuance, the left-wing route of asset issuance is Memecoin, and the right-wing route is RWA and VCcoin.
The left-wing route is a global opportunity, while the right-wing route is more of a structural opportunity, such as the revival trend of DeFi, the evil axis of ENA+Sky+Morpho, and the obvious business growth of old protocols like Curve and AAVE; there are also some structural opportunities in BTCfi, CeDefi, and Payfi.
So I still don't have a good outlook on ETH, as it can only carry side narratives at the moment, although Coinbase will benefit greatly from the main narrative, in my view it's more like the eighteen warlords plotting against each other rather than the three heroes fighting Lü Bu in unity. It is very likely that the ETH exchange rate will not outperform BTC upwards, Solana in the middle, and DeFi blue chips downwards.
2/ The impact of the Western policy narrative has only played a small part
In the campaign stage, the narratives of Trump and Musk have already played a huge potential. There are two bigger things to come: ① formal inauguration ② change of SEC chairman. At the same time, ETH and MSTR have already taken over the task of the previous cycle's Grayscale, and there will be more companies and sovereign states starting to allocate, this time it will be even bigger than 2020.
The bull market in the West is on.
With the combination of the above internal and external factors, the importance of the ecosystem has become very clear, and I won't go into details about the ecosystems that already have strong or relatively strong consensus, but I'll talk about two ecosystems with relatively low attention:
3/ Bittensor ecosystem
I recommend Vitlik's recent interview, which has nothing to do with ETH but some of the ideas in it are very interesting, including the authoritarian monopolization of AI and the reflection on the future symbiosis of AI, the big beta of Memecoin is undoubtedly ACT, and the beta answer of the Alts sector is also very clear, Crypto AI can only be deAI or Fair AI, so Bittensor >> Worldcoin.
It's worth mentioning that last week the media reported that the current most likely candidate for the new SEC chairman is Teresa Goody Guillén, a partner and co-head of the blockchain team at the law firm BakerHostetler, and she is also the legal partner of Bittensor's first subnet Masa. After the news came out, in the context of BTC's correction, $MASA has still risen by around 30%.
4 Near ecosystem
As the saying goes, one step ahead is meat, ten steps ahead is shit, and Near belongs to this category. At the beginning of this year, when Solana MEME was just catching fire, Near's MEME also quickly caught up, producing the two targets of Black Dragon and Yilong, and Near's founder @ilblackdragon also attended NVIDIA's AI conference.
But in the following period, MEME and AI were lukewarm. Now the wind of MEME and AI has finally picked up, blowing to Solana, Base, SUI, and BNBChain, but Near players have already had weeds three meters high on their graves.
However, the good news is that there is an occult theorem, from DeFi to X2E, to Non-Fungible Token and Script, Near is always able to catch the last train and eat the last hot bite, but the public chains that are later than Near basically can't catch up with anything. Near belongs to the kind that eats but arrives late, and is also relatively ambitious in causing trouble. Just looked at it, the MEME @dragonisnear with three meters of weeds on the grave and the Script @inscriptionneat with five meters of weeds, now still have $7m and very good exit liquidity.
