Macro factor analysis
On the macro front, the FOMC meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve in the early hours of this morning are worth noting:
If inflation rebounds, rate cuts may be paused.
If the unemployment rate rises or the economy slows down, rate cuts may be accelerated.
Most committee members support a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
Overall, the Fed's decision-making is still highly dependent on inflation and employment data, and the probability of a rate cut is currently balanced. After the release of the meeting minutes, CME has lowered the probability of a rate cut in December from the previous 75% to 66%. Tonight, the US will release the October core PCE inflation data, and the forecast value is higher than the previous month, and the market has already expected inflation to rebound. If the data can remain flat with the previous value, the market sentiment may improve as a result.
Market review and hot sectors
Thanks to the rebound in Bitcoin during the day, the performance of many Altcoins has also been quite strong. Among them, the exchange rate of ETH against BTC has continued to rise recently, and last night there was a net inflow of $40 million into the ETH ETF, which has maintained a positive inflow for three consecutive days. The market's expectation for staking-type ETFs is heating up, and if they can be launched, it will further reduce the circulating supply of ETH, thereby increasing its scarcity. In addition, the market is relatively optimistic about Trump's policy expectations, believing that his taking office may accelerate the regulatory relaxation of crypto assets, and increase the possibility of other projects such as SOL, XRP, and Doge to challenge ETFs.
On the other hand, it is worth noting that a US court ruled that the sanctions against Tornado Cash were illegal, and this news caused TORN to soar tenfold in a single day. However, since the project has been delisted by major exchanges, it can only be traded on-chain at present, and for ordinary investors, this type of high-risk target is not recommended to participate blindly.
In terms of sector performance, projects in the public chain, DeFi, and staking/restaking areas have seen the largest gains:
In the public chain sector, XLM has doubled in seven days, and TIA, FTM, and DOT have all risen by more than 50%.
The DeFi leaders AAVE and UNI have both risen by more than 30%.
The staking-related project LDO has risen by about 50% in seven days, which may be related to the news of the ETH staking ETF.
MEME sector and innovative projects
The MEME sector has been relatively flat recently, especially after the launch of the new coin THE on Binance, the market sentiment has been somewhat dispersed. However, there are still some outstanding performances on the chain, such as the AI sector project UBC breaking through a $100 million FDV. In addition, the CLANKER project on the Base chain continues to rise, but some projects like BUG and RIF have experienced relatively large corrections. The DeSci sector is subject to liquidity and verification issues, and the price fluctuations are relatively large, but it still has long-term potential.
Finally, there are actually many other things that haven't been written in, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions, which are often not something that can be summarized in an article.
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