Valuation indicators show that Bitcoin still has upside potential. Can it rise to $146,000?

Although prices have recently adjusted, Bitcoin's valuation indicators still indicate that a bull market cycle will occur in the future. Bitcoin's valuation indicators indicate that the bull market is far from over and may lay the foundation for further upside. Analysts currently expect the potential target price for this cycle to be $146,000, as there are no signs of overvaluation typically seen at price peaks. A research firm, CryptoQuant, pointed out in a report on November 27 that the number of new Bitcoin holders is still lagging behind the previous cycle's level. Currently, the holdings of new investors account for only more than 50% of the total cryptocurrency investment, while in the previous market peaks (such as 2017 and 2021), this ratio exceeded 90% and 80% respectively. These levels may be due to the recent slowdown in retail buying of Bitcoin. According to the analysis, an increase in retail activity is a "typical sign of the market cycle reaching its peak." Since October, retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 BTC, while large investors have significantly increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC. "Previous bull market cycles ended when retail investors actively bought in, but the current situation is not the same." This shift indicates that the market dynamics may be changing, with institutions and large participants driving the accumulation phase. ETF investors led the buying of Bitcoin in November, with weekly inflows soaring to a record $3.1 billion in the week ending November 22, when the cryptocurrency's price hit a new high of $99,655.50. On November 26, the Bitcoin price fell to around $91,000, failing to break through the $100,000 resistance level. Some analysts believe that this cryptocurrency may still experience a 30% correction before breaking through the six-digit threshold. CryptoQuant's bull-bear market cycle indicator has been in the bull market zone since early November and has continued to rise since then. However, the indicator is still lagging behind the overheated bull market stage reached in March 2024, when Bitcoin set a new high with a trading price above $70,000. From the perspective of actual price valuation, the current highest target price for Bitcoin is $146,000. The report states that "in previous cycles, such as April to May 2021, this price range has always been the peak of Bitcoin's price." "So far, the profit and loss index of this cycle has not reached an overvalued level, indicating that there is still room for price appreciation."