PANews reported on November 30 that due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the market ended the week with a certain degree of sluggishness, with obvious lack of liquidity on Thursday and Friday, but the US stock market surprisingly closed strongly this week, driven by technology stocks and retail stocks, with the S&P index hitting a new high and recording the largest monthly gain since November 2023. US employment data will dominate next week, and the key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Monday 09:45, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November
Monday 22:45, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value for November
Tuesday 04:15, Speech by Fed Governor Waller
Tuesday 05:30, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams participates in a dialogue hosted by the Queens Chamber of Commerce
Tuesday 23:00, US JOLTS job openings for October
Wednesday 01:35, Fed Governor Koogler speaks on the labor market and monetary policy
Wednesday 21:15, US ADP employment for November
Wednesday 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Mester speaks
Wednesday 22:45, US S&P Global PMI final value for November
Thursday 02:45, Fed Chair Powell is invited to be interviewed at the New York Times DealBook/Summit conference
Thursday 03:00, Fed releases Beige Book on economic conditions
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims as of November 30, October trade balance
Friday 00:30, 2024 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks
Friday 22:15, Fed Governor Bowman speaks
Friday 23:30, 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat
Saturday 01:00, 2024 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on the economic outlook
Saturday 02:00, 2024 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks
In the coming week, investors will have a new understanding of the health of the US economy, and the release of a closely watched non-farm employment report may help investors determine the future interest rate trend in the US in the next few months. The October job openings report released earlier on Tuesday and the November ADP employment report released on Wednesday may also provide clues about the performance of the US labor market. The market expects the non-farm data to be released next Friday to increase by 183,000. Last month, non-farm employment increased by only 12,000, far below expectations. Now that the issues caused by Hurricane Milton in Florida have been resolved, non-farm employment this week may be higher, and some analysts even expect employment to reach around 220,000. The unemployment rate is also a key indicator to watch before the Fed's December meeting. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% and employment is unexpectedly weak, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in December will be greater, which could lead to a weakening of the US dollar.
The probability of the Fed standing pat in December is 35%, while the probability of a pause in rate hikes in January has risen to about 58%. It is also interesting to note that the probability of the Fed not raising rates at both meetings is also 27%.
