The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved great success, with the on-chain total holdings exceeding 1.12 million BTC (about 1.128 million), accounting for 5.7% of the current Bitcoin supply, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto. With Trump about to take office, the expected loose regulatory environment has greatly increased institutional interest in Bitcoin. Parataxis Capital co-founder Edward Chin believes that the imbalance between Bitcoin supply and demand will lead to a rise in BTC prices.
ETF holds over 1.12 million BTC, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto
According to
Dune data, the on-chain total holdings of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF have exceeded 1.128 million BTC, accounting for 5.7% of the current Bitcoin supply, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto.
As the first miner on the Bitcoin network, Satoshi Nakamoto is widely believed to hold about 1 million to 1.1 million BTC, distributed across more than 20,000 wallets, and these Bitcoins have not been moved for decades.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has surged
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitcoin ETF issuer Bitwise, said in an
interview that since early October, 40% of the meetings he has held with registered investment advisors (RIAs) and institutions have resulted in Bitcoin allocations, up from 10% previously.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at Bitcoin ETF issuer VanEck, also said that his phone has been ringing non-stop, and RIAs seem particularly motivated to get rid of their previous 0% crypto asset allocation.
Bitcoin supply-demand imbalance will lead to a rise in BTC prices
With the growth in demand and the wallets of institutional whales getting larger, there are not enough sellers to limit the price, especially for those OG Bitcoin holders who are unwilling to sell. A certain proportion of Bitcoins will also be permanently locked due to forgotten passwords or lost hard drives containing Bitcoin wallets. Especially for Satoshi Nakamoto, it is believed that his wallet contains 1.1 million Bitcoins, and it is widely speculated that he has passed away, with these tokens permanently frozen.
Furthermore, the total supply of Bitcoin is fixed (21 million), and its supply is gradually released through the mining process, with the mining reward halving every four years until all Bitcoins are mined. As the supply of new Bitcoins continues to decrease, there are now only about 164,250 new Bitcoins added per year, which is only half the amount of Bitcoins owned by MicroStrategy.
Parataxis Capital co-founder Edward Chin believes that the large number of ETF buyers, along with other sovereign wealth funds, other non-U.S. retail and other non-U.S. institutional investors, will not have enough Bitcoins to meet the demand unless the Bitcoin price rises significantly to force existing holders to sell.
The risks brought by the new concentrated Bitcoin ownership group are two-way, and some price predictions that once sounded like the daydreams of crypto enthusiasts no longer seem far-fetched.
Chin expects Bitcoin to rise to over $500,000, depending on the specific actions of the U.S. government. Given that BTC will become part of the global currency base like gold today, its price in today's U.S. dollars could approach $1 million.
