Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Time sometimes passes quickly, and before you know it, the Spring Festival is just around the corner again. I remember that during the last Spring Festival (February 9, 2024), I posted a memo in the group and briefly shared my thoughts on this year's outlook, and also had high personal expectations for this year's bull market. As shown in the image below.
In many of our articles last year, we have actually sorted out and introduced a number of narratives (tracks) and their corresponding projects. For example, in the e-book "Blockchain Thinking Advanced" (released in December 2023) of Talk Li Talk Outside, we listed more than 20 narrative classifications. As shown in the image below.
However, since entering 2024, we have gradually stopped paying attention to too many projects. This trend can also be found in the historical articles of Talk Li Talk Outside. Most of the themes of the articles we output this year are focused on the sorting of methodological level, which is also the main reason why I named the e-book to be released this year "Blockchain Methodology".
Looking back on the past two years, based on the operational level, the advice we have given can be summarized into the following directions:
First, stick to regularly investing in BTC
From the beginning, our advice has always been to allocate at least 50% of your position to BTC and regularly invest in it, and the remaining position can be further divided according to your personal risk preference. In this way, even if your positions in Altcoins and on-chain memes are wiped out or stuck after this bull market ends, the 50% BTC position will most likely make up for it.
For example, in this cycle, we started regularly investing in BTC from May 2022 until officially ending the investment plan in January 2024. The specific investment plan has been shared and mentioned many times in the past articles of Talk Li Talk Outside.
Let me briefly review it again: In this cycle, our investment plan spanned 21 months, and we persisted in investing for 20 months, buying BTC every month. But there was a small twist here. I didn't make the planned purchase in June 2022 because I hesitated at the time, but from the next month (July 2022) I resumed the normal "twenty-month" investment plan without hesitation, because after a brief hesitation, I still chose to believe and stick to my own judgment.
However, considering that some of the participants had just entered this field, I later also gave new suggestions in the articles, that is, BTC and ETH can continue to be accumulated until the third quarter of 2024. The reasons behind this have been discussed and expressed in the historical articles of Talk Li Talk Outside. If you have been following Talk Li Talk Outside for a long time, you should be able to understand the points here. If you don't understand it now, I won't explain it, because those are things of the past. Interested readers are advised to download the past e-books of Talk Li Talk Outside to review.
But if you just entered the market these days, and ask me whether to start accumulating BTC, I won't give you any specific advice. The advice I can give now is that you can read more articles from us or other bloggers, observe the market and keep learning, and first improve yourself. There will be many opportunities in this circle in the future.
Although BTC is currently in an overall upward trend, to be honest, for newcomers (new investors), participating now is more likely to result in not being able to hold on, or more likely to fall into the trap of chasing the rise and selling at the bottom. Moreover, BTC has already risen a lot from $15,000 to the current $97,000 in this cycle, and the risks faced by newcomers will be greater as time goes on.
But for old-timers (veteran investors), the saying still holds true: For the future, BTC is never too expensive to buy at the current price.
In addition, for the recent newcomers who like to ask what coins (Altcoins, memes, on-chain memes) can at least 10x or directly throw a token name and ask me how much it can rise, my answer is still: I don't know.
And as mentioned earlier, since entering 2024, we have gradually stopped paying attention to too many projects. Therefore, the various projects or tokens that you have sent to me in the background messages, I don't understand them myself and don't want to spend time and energy to understand them. Maybe when the next bear market comes, we will consider spending more time and energy to pay attention to and research some interesting projects again.
Second, focus on the leading projects in popular narratives
We have mentioned many times that everyone's time and energy are limited. In addition to accumulating coins, just focus on 1-3 tracks and dive deep into research and explore potential opportunities, or focus on the dynamics of the leading projects in the corresponding tracks.
Also, don't compare this with Talk Li Talk Outside. For example, don't be bothered by why we can pay attention to so many tracks. Remember, Talk Li Talk Outside is currently a self-media IP, and the big dragon is also a blogger. If you are focused on trading, then focusing on 1-3 tracks is enough for most people. If you also want to be a blogger, or like the big dragon, in addition to accumulating coins, you rarely do trading, then you can look at your own interests and pay attention to many aspects. But perhaps, like the big dragon, you will not be able to go too deep in many aspects, and this is something you need to experience for yourself.
And as mentioned earlier, Talk Li Talk Outside has also sorted out a lot of narratives for everyone before. But looking back now, we have both right and wrong judgments in this aspect.
In terms of narrative dimension:
We have focused on recommending AI, RWA, and GameFi tracks, but so far, the performance of some projects under the AI and RWA narratives is generally good, but the overall performance of GameFi has completely failed to meet our expectations. However, the bull market is still ongoing, so GameFi may still have the opportunity to be hyped.
In terms of ecosystem dimension:
We have focused on the Arbitrum, Avalanche, and Solana ecosystems, but in the end we found that Arbitrum, which we were quite optimistic about, seemed to gradually lose its popularity and attention after the airdrop, while Solana became the most eye-catching and attractive ecosystem in this bull market.
However, I did buy a little ARB, AVAX, and SOL last year, and the specific entry time and price, as well as the reasons for the purchase, have also been shared and mentioned in the previous articles of Talk Li Talk Outside. For example, one of the main reasons for buying AVAX last year was that I was optimistic about its new layout in the RWA and GameFi fields.
In terms of time dimension:
As mentioned earlier, in this cycle we started regular investment in May 2022, which means that at that time we believed the bear market of this cycle had already begun, and bear markets usually last 1-2 years, so we formulated a so-called "twenty-month" investment plan.
At the same time, we expected that the bull market is most likely to appear in 2024-2025, and at the latest it may last until before 2025. From the current actual situation, it is basically in line with this expectation, except that the actual bull market seems to have come a little earlier than our initial expectation, and the main reason is the variable of ETF (which we didn't expect to be approved this year). And the current bull market is still ongoing, and there may still be some variables or new black swans next year, which is unpredictable.
As for how others should operate next, we do not make any evaluations or provide any specific trading guidance. But our own operations will continue to be executed according to the original plan. That is, going forward, we will only do sell operations and will not conduct any more buy operations. We will start to sell in batches when BTC reaches $100,000.
Perhaps the market trend may still be upward, but we will continue to strictly execute our trading discipline. The price target is actually just a setting based on the cost-averaging investment plus personal expectations. Our main logic is still based on the consideration of the long-term time dimension. And in the previous article, we had outlined 4 expected results for this cycle:
The first is that BTC reaches above $100,000 before the 2024 low (execute Plan A)
The second is that BTC reaches above $100,000 in the first or second quarter of 2025 (execute Plan A)
The third is that BTC reaches above $100,000 before the 2025 low (execute Plan A)
The fourth is that BTC cannot reach above $100,000 in this cycle (execute Plan B)
We had corresponding plans and execution strategies for these 4 scenarios, which were discussed in detail in the previous article, so I won't repeat them here. Based on the current market situation, we are most likely to execute the second scenario, which means we should conduct batch sell operations in the first-second quarter of next year.
Thirdly, if you have the energy, you can do more research on new concepts
In the past two years, we have also done some basic knowledge sorting and introduction on new narratives such as BRC20, BTC L2, and ERC404. According to the rules of each bull market, new narratives often have the most short-term speculative space, and what people call "speculating on new concepts rather than old ones" is actually expressing this meaning.
But looking back now, some narratives have indeed unleashed sustained speculative potential, such as BRC20 having several rounds of outbreaks in the past two years, while something like ERC404 was just a flash in the pan. Reviewing a longer period of time, there have been many rags-to-riches stories and cases in these new concept areas, and even various "eternal profit masters" have emerged, which have also attracted many retail investors to join and follow. But from my personal experience, most of the retail investors who joined later should have been trapped inside.
New concepts often have greater short-term speculative opportunities and operational space, but this requires a person's ability to filter channels and information, the ability to research the underlying logic of early projects, and the ability to judge the development of market sentiment... In the opportunities for overnight wealth, there are also often more possibilities for overnight losses.
In theory, overweighting in new concepts can produce miracles, but investing is a long-term and comprehensive practice. If you die in the darkness before the dawn, then the sunshine after the dawn will have nothing to do with you.
Many people (especially newcomers) don't know much about the crypto field, and even don't know some basic concepts, but they come in with the sole intention of taking shortcuts and trying to learn from or blindly follow the so-called "eternal profit masters" to get rich overnight. The result can be imagined.
If a person does not have a reasonable understanding of the relationship between the input of their time and energy and the return of the results, the market will ultimately become your best teacher.
Fourthly, try to maintain focus and patience
The introduction of the "Talk Outside the Talk" public account currently states: maintain focus, maintain thinking, and maintain patience.
The underlying logic of the market is liquidity. Under the premise of getting the right direction, money flow often slowly flows from the restless to the patient. Yesterday, I saw a friend in the group share a joke about ETH's price range of $2,100-$3,700, which also seems to correspond to an interesting process of the mentality changes of ordinary "cabbage". In contrast, those who have always maintained focus are often able to lay the groundwork and patiently wait.
In the past articles of "Talk Outside the Talk", the words "focus" and "patience" actually appear very frequently. I just did a simple search in the background, and in the past 500+ articles, the word "focus" appeared 111 times and the word "patience" appeared 84 times.
Just like almost everyone knows and agrees that as long as you focus on DCAing BTC during the bear market and patiently wait for the bull market to sell, you can get a relatively good return, but in the end, the proportion of people who can really stick to it doesn't seem to be very large. Perhaps only those old "cabbages" who have experienced at least 1-2 complete cycles can truly achieve focus and patience.
Although everyone is a different individual with different backgrounds, experiences, capital sizes, and knowledge accumulation, and sometimes we always find various reasons for our failures or missed opportunities, there are some things that everyone can strive for:
- Learning opportunities
Now is an era of massive information, and you can easily acquire almost any knowledge you want anytime, anywhere, and there are also tools like Google and ChatGPT to assist you.
Everyone has 24 hours a day, and if someone really wants to learn and accumulate, no one can stop them, the only one who can stop themselves is themselves.
- Earning opportunities
For example, recently a friend heard that the US stock market was doing well, but he couldn't download the trading app, so he left a message in the background complaining, and even mentioned some sensitive political topics. But some people won't choose to complain everywhere when they encounter such problems, because these people are always able to find ways to solve the problems themselves.
Another example, there was a friend who left a message complaining that he knew about BTC a few years ago, but at the time he didn't know how to use a VPN and download the exchange app, so he didn't enter the market until this year, feeling that he had missed many opportunities to get rich.
How to put it? Some opportunities we cannot choose ourselves, like some people are born as second-generation rich, and some are born as second-generation poor. But some can be actively solved by ourselves, as long as the direction is right, then it's just a matter of whether you are willing to spend more time, energy and effort than others. Missing out is not terrible, what's terrible is staying trapped in the past missed opportunities and letting your present self get lost.
And often, our choices or the self-changes we need to make don't have to make us surpass those "chosen ones" or become the TOP1, as long as we can lead the vast majority of our peers, that's enough.
For ordinary people, the process of success is not easy. But "the road, though long, will be reached if you walk; the task, though difficult, will be accomplished if you do it."
This earth itself is round, not flat, and similarly, this society is not "flat" either. Now we can no longer decide our past, and those missed opportunities can only become a past, and as ordinary individuals, we are also powerless to change the world, but we can still decide our future within "an appropriate scope".
Maintaining focus is not just about keeping it simple, but pursuing a deeper commitment.
Maintaining patience is not just about ignoring time and volatility, but pursuing a higher state of mind.
A few days ago, Boss Heng in the group shared some of his earning strategies with me, and after chatting for a while, we also mentioned Ahr999. In investment strategies, perhaps we should all learn from Ahr999, until we can finally do what Ahr999 said: "Holding coins, but without attachment."
Note: The above content is a personal perspective and analysis, and is only for learning and exchange purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. The projects or websites mentioned in the article are not directly related to the author (the author does not accept any advertising from project parties), please evaluate the security of the corresponding projects or websites yourself. Investment always has risks, don't get into what you don't understand, and don't play what you can't afford to lose.
'Altcoin' must be translated into 'Altcoin'. 'BTC' must be translated into 'BTC'. 'on-chain meme' must be translated into 'on-chain meme'. 'Bit' must be translated into 'Bit'. 'MEME' must be translated into 'MEME'. 'Solana' must be translated into 'Solana'. 'TRON' must be translated into 'TRON'. 'Arbitrum' must be translated into 'Arbitrum'. 'AVA' must be translated into 'AVA'. 'BTC' must be translated into 'BTC'. 'ETH' must be translated into 'ETH'. 'SOL' must be translated into 'SOL'. 'AVAX' must be translated into 'AVAX'. 'HT' must be translated into 'HT'. 'OP' must be translated into 'OP'. 'AR' must be translated into 'AR'. 'meme' must be translated into 'meme'. 'ARB' must be translated into 'ARB'. 'PLA' must be translated into 'PLA'. 'RON' must be translated into 'RON'. 'ONG' must be translated into 'ONG'.
