Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储到 12 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 32.9%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 67.1%。

美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为67.1%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Federal Reserve Watch&quot;: The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged by December is 32.9%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 67.1%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.1%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Minsheng Securities said that the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts in the middle of next year has increased. With the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation being hindered from declining, the Federal Reserve may still have 2 to 3 rate cuts next year, and may pause rate cuts in the second half of the year. In a low-probability scenario, if the intensity of tariffs and immigration policies is too strong, it may lead to a decline in the US stock market and a significant slowdown in the US economy, in which case there may be more rate cuts next year. (Gold Ten)

Institution: The probability of the Fed suspending interest rate cuts in the middle of next year increases

PANews November 30 news, due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, the market ended the week with a certain degree of sluggishness, with obvious lack of liquidity on Thursday and Friday, but the US stock market surprisingly closed strongly this week, driven by technology stocks and retail stocks, the S&P index hit a new high and recorded the largest monthly gain since November 2023. Next week, US employment data will be the focus, and the key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
Monday 09:45, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November
Monday 22:45, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for November
Tuesday 04:15, Fed Governor Waller speaks
Tuesday 05:30, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams participates in a dialogue hosted by the Queens Chamber of Commerce
Tuesday 23:00, US JOLTS Job Openings for October
Wednesday 01:35, Fed Governor Koogler speaks on the labor market and monetary policy
Wednesday 21:15, US ADP Employment Change for November
Wednesday 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks
Wednesday 22:45, US S&P Global PMI Final for November
Thursday 02:45, Fed Chair Powell is invited to be interviewed at the New York Times DealBook/Summit conference
Thursday 03:00, Fed releases Beige Book
Thursday 21:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 30, October Trade Balance
Friday 00:30, 2024 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks
Friday 22:15, Fed Governor Bowman speaks
Friday 23:30, 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat
Saturday 01:00, 2024 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on the economic outlook
Saturday 02:00, 2024 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks

Macroeconomic outlook for next week: "Data frenzy" is coming, Powell and non-agricultural data are blowing up the market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be "poured cold water"

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Foreword
In the ever-changing global economic landscape, the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve is closely watched by the global financial markets. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, ushering in a new cycle of rate cuts.

Binance Research recently released a report that delves into the ins and outs of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and its impact on the economy and various asset classes.

The report, starting from the basic economic theory, analyzes the relationship between core economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation, and employment, using the latest data and historical experience. It also examines the impact on stocks, bonds, <AR>, and other asset classes.