Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
The latest data shows that the XRP market cap once exceeded $136.2 billion, surpassing USDT and regaining the "third largest cryptocurrency by market cap", returning to the level before the 2020 SEC/Ripple lawsuit.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily had detailed the analysis of the "US court ruling that Ripple did not violate federal securities law" in August, see 《XRP Surges Over 20%, Another Stage Victory for Ripple in the SEC Lawsuit》. Nearly 4 months later, the XRP price has broken through $2.3, up nearly 4 times, and the market is relatively optimistic about the future performance of XRP.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the latest developments of Ripple and XRP in this article for readers' reference.
The dual superposition of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors has led to a surge in the XRP market cap
According to Infinite Market Cap data, with a market cap of $136.2 billion, XRP's market cap briefly surpassed China Life Insurance and ranked 139th among global assets; currently, its market cap has fallen back to around $132.8 billion. In general, the surge in XRP's market cap is mainly due to a number of positive factors at the macro and micro levels:
Macro level: Trump's election may help resolve the "XRP vs. SEC" dispute
With Trump's successful election as the new US president, the long-standing "whether XRP is a security" dispute between Ripple and the SEC may finally reach a final ruling, as the "crypto-friendly president", Trump is expected to play a positive role in the subsequent development of the crypto industry.
At the same time, as an active participant in the US presidential election campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to a PAC before the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake along with crypto exchange Coinbase, Jump Crypto and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence crypto-political tendencies.
On the other hand, in the crypto advisory council that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of crypto companies including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm are competing for relevant positions, seeking to have a voice in his planned US policy reforms, which also sows the seeds for the recent good market performance of XRP.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also spoken frequently, emphasizing the potential changes in crypto regulation under the leadership of President-elect Trump, where he mentioned: "Ripple and XRP may be at a turning point, as the new crypto-friendly regulatory shift under the new president is expected to bring new hope and may resolve the legal dispute that has lasted for years." He then pointed out: "The SEC has been interfering in the crypto market, picking winners and losers for 6 years... and it has been 4 years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually disappear, we are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, the headwind is turning into a tailwind, and the opportunity is huge for those of us who believe in the future of XRP." Furthermore, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed crypto-related issues.
In November, the progress of the US SEC vs. Ripple case was that "the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's briefing to be submitted by January 15, 2025." Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved the final judgment on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered a stay on the remaining unresolved lawsuits, which shortened the time for the class action lawsuit and paved the way for the trial to begin on January 21, 2025. Additionally, the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may resign before or after Trump takes office, which also contributed to the previous price increase of XRP.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is Trump's first day in office.Thus, it can be said that Trump will play the role of "Mr. Key" in this "battle between crypto institutions and regulatory authorities".
Micro level: 1 billion XRP locked in custody, stablecoin launch imminent
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also "bloom again".
One of the important reasons directly driving the rise in XRP price may be the "locking of 1 billion XRP tokens in custody" early this morning.According to Whale Alert monitoring, starting at 2:21 am this morning, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custody wallet, worth about $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple said it uses a custody account system to provide transparency and certainty for the XRP market. The company locks up most of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not oversupply the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses the XRP in the custody accounts to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. The monthly release of 1 billion XRP tokens from the custody accounts does not mean that all of them will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutions or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a crypto payment company, Ripple plans to expand its footprint into the stablecoin space. In mid-November, according to official news, Ripple announced that it will soon launch the US dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), RLUSD is a stablecoin designed for enterprise use cases (such as payments), focusing on stability, efficiency and transparency, aiming to enhance Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meet the growing demand for US dollar-denominated transactions. There are reports that the stablecoin may be launched on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also been quite active in promoting industry collaboration. In October, digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, with market B2C 2 and Keyrock supporting its liquidity, and according to official news, crypto payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in using MoonPay accounts to buy, store and manage XRP. In late November, Ripple also announced a partnership with Archax and UK asset manager ABRDN PLC, with the two parties planning to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
Under a series of positive news, Ripple and XRP are experiencing a "second spring" in crypto.
In addition, the XRP ETF will also be the next highlight in the crypto market, continuing to attract market attention.
Industry insiders actively express their views, will XRP ETF be the first to launch?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse wrote that an XRP ETF is "inevitable". The main basis for this is the growing share of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holdings of US Bitcoin spot ETFs have exceeded 1.12 million BTC (about 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holding value reached $108.9 billion.
At the same time, XRP has also received strong support from crypto industry insiders from different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has been launched: WisdomTree fired the "first shot", followed by Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in the US state of Delaware, and the company has confirmed that the filing is legal. It is reported that WisdomTree's assets under management exceed $100 billion.
Meanwhile, according to The ETF Store president Nate Geraci wrote: "There are currently 3 ETF applications holding the third largest cryptocurrency XRP. Bitwise, Canary and 21Shares have all filed for physical XRP ETFs. It is speculated that other issuers will also join in."
Grayscale's "Selected": XRP has been added to the crypto investment portfolio
In early November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing investment opportunities in XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger, which supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale issued another post stating that it has opened private placement subscriptions for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to qualified investors.
And the results prove that Grayscale's choice was very wise: according to statistics, Grayscale's crypto holdings value grew significantly in November. According to Cryptorank data, its crypto holdings market value grew by more than 85% in the past month, the growth was mainly driven by tokens including XRP (up over 262% during the period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a Ripple partner
In November, Ripple stated that it will invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, but the specific investment amount was not disclosed. It is understood that the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP was previously known as the "European XRP ETP" and is part of Bitwise's suite of crypto asset funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that the decision to invest in the Bitwise fund is very much in line with the trend of growing interest in crypto asset-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) has assets under management exceeding $80 million, with Ripple as one of the investors, and the product is listed and traded on the Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry insiders all express their views: Solana ecosystem, BNB ecosystem, Cardano ecosystem and others have all voiced their support
Just today, Solana co-founder toly wrote: "We need a national XRP reserve." This statement is also seen as echoing former President Trump's previous emphasis on "establishing a national Bitcoin reserve strategy."
At the end of November, CZ retweeted a news article stating that since XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US Securities and Exchange Commission may drop the Ripple case. This information came from an interview with former CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson wrote that he praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, calling him a "great CEO", and described their interaction as "highly collaborative", sparking speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore a strategic partnership.
Data level: market trading is active, multiple data points reach new highs
From the market data perspective, XRP is also one of the top performers.
In the Korean market, the trading volume on Upbit grew by more than 100% in seven days, with cryptocurrencies including XRP being the main contributors. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly broke through $2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
Additionally, in terms of contract data, according to Coinglass data, the global XRP futures contract open interest is 1.739 billion XRP, equivalent to $4.051 billion, reaching a new high, with a 24-hour increase of 20.34%. Among them, the open interest of the Bybit XRP contract is 548 million XRP (about $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24-hour increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, with XRP breaking through $2, its 24-hour trading volume has also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, and the trading volume to market cap ratio has reached 18.4%, indicating relatively high trading activity compared to its market cap.
One more thing, affected by various positive news, the content of XRP-related posts on the X platform has reached 480,000, even far exceeding the content related to the meme-like Doge.
One of the content indicators on the X platform
If everything goes well, the XRP ETF may become the "third crypto ETF" in the US market after the BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: What is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As the market cap of XRP has returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, the "first crypto regulatory case" that originated in 2018 and has lasted for 6 years is about to reach its conclusion, and there are different views on the future of Ripple and XRP in the market.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of Japanese financial services giant SBI Holdings, wrote that once the SEC issue is resolved, Ripple should start preparing for an IPO as soon as possible. (Odaily note: According to reports, SBI Holdings has been cooperating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is a key figure in the Ripple-SBI collaboration and joined Ripple's board of directors in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP can be traced back to 2017, when he predicted that XRP would become the global standard for digital currencies, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs and scalability.) Although similar proposals have previously been shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, it can also be seen as one of the possibilities for Ripple's future direction.
After all, with the further improvement of the crypto regulatory environment, there may be more "crypto concept stocks" listed on the US stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may usher in another wave of development.
