Author: @mattsolomon
Translation: Blockchain in Plain Language
How did Polymarket turn election predictions into a billion-dollar bet? @animocaresearch's latest report provides some analysis, and here is a concise summary.
1. What is Polymarket?
@Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can trade the outcomes of future events.
Unlike traditional betting, Polymarket allows participants to buy and sell shares of whether an event will occur, with the price of the "YES" shares reflecting the market's consensus on the probability of the event happening.
• Prediction Mechanism: Trades are peer-to-peer, with real-time pricing based on user orders.
• Token Usage: Trades use USDC, with ERC-1155 Tokens representing the predictions.
2. Polymarket's Rapid Rise in Popularity and Impact
Since its founding in 2020, Polymarket has experienced explosive growth, particularly during the US election cycle:
• User Engagement: Over 300,000 new users joined in just October 2024 alone.
• Public Attention: It has been covered by major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, and even figures like Trump have mentioned it.
• Traffic: October's traffic reached 35 million visits, rivaling top betting sites.
Insights into Trading Volume: Polymarket's trading volume has skyrocketed:
• Surging Trading Volume: From $40 million in April 2024 to $2.5 billion in October.
• Open Interest: From $20 million to $400 million, comparable to mainstream decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like SushiSwap.
• Event Focus: While election markets dominate, non-election events like sports have also attracted significant trading activity.
3. The Founder's Story
Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, has an intriguing background:
• Early Beginnings: Started mining Bit at 15 in New York, invested in Ethereum at 16.
• Entrepreneurial Journey: Dropped out of New York University in 2017 to focus on Web3 projects, founded Polymarket in 2020.
• Leadership: Guided the company through regulatory challenges and is now nearing a billion-dollar valuation with recent funding.
4. Is Polymarket a Fleeting Election Phenomenon or Here to Stay?
Despite its growth being closely tied to the US elections:
• Beyond Elections: Significant user participation in non-political event trading suggests broader appeal.
• Regulatory Compliance: Successfully navigating regulatory hurdles may indicate sustainable operations.
• Community and Media: It has become integrated into media consumption habits, hinting at long-term viability.
If you'd like to learn more, check out the report from @animocaresearch: https://bit.ly/4ePxTNw
So, do you think Polymarket will continue to thrive as a general prediction platform, or will it gradually lose influence after the elections? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
Link to this article: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/5566.html
Source: https://x.com/mattsolomon/status/1863093356282425766
