GM, the December outlook is here.
Dino coins are not my forte, and it's also difficult to grasp these ancient old coins. This outlook mainly wants to talk to you about some directions I'm looking at.
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1/ AI Agent
After a series of hype around AI Memecoins, AI Agent applications, and infrastructure, it's time to shift our focus to the longer term.
Let me share my personal perceptions⬇️
1. It's unlikely that new pure AI MEME will emerge, with only $GOAT and $ACT, which are on Binance, remaining after the market shakeout (I don't have much opinion on $TURBO). However, $GOAT and $ACT are both market-made by Wintermute, and I believe the people on board are in pain.
2. Market aesthetics upgrade: AI MEME—>AI Agent application—>more sophisticated AI Agent applications & AI Agent infrastructure.
My thoughts on future development⬇️
1. AI Agents with brand-new output forms will be more popular;
For example, the current popular AI Agents in the market are basically tweet bots, and the competition is more about "new and unique content", such as $AIXBT's market analysis. As long as you can produce differentiated high-quality output, the market will buy it.
Differentiated high-quality output covers two levels: one is new content forms, the key of which is "traffic", i.e., the ability to attract enough audience. Now it's text content, and we can see new AI Agents exploring video content and podcast content (including things like $ZEREBRO and $LUNA releasing music singles, and $POD doing podcast-related things); the other is new behavioral patterns, such as launching an Agent that can trade memecoins on its own, and in the future, we should see more exploration of new behavioral patterns (this is also why I was optimistic about $FLOWER and $LOLA before). If the new behavioral patterns produce good results, the market will buy it.
2. The market will show more demand for AI-related infrastructure;
This is easy to understand, and I won't elaborate too much. Building a high-rise on flat ground requires a solid foundation. $VIRTUAL, $AI16Z, and $VVWIFU are representatives of such tokens. In addition to these basic token issuance facilities, you can also pay attention to the infrastructure that integrates these infrastructure, such as Seraph on Virtuals.
3. The future trend is "independent and collaborative Agents";
We can already see this trend, such as what $UBC is currently doing (Agent to Agent), and in the future, the AI Agents on Virtuals may also develop in this direction. $LUM is the beginning of this type of conceptual token, which is a cultural meme without practicality (although there are now teams starting to do some things based on $LUM, but I still haven't fully understood their ideas).
P.S. My $LUM is currently in a loss state, mentioned for reference only, not as financial advice.
2/ Ethereum
I'm personally optimistic that Ethereum will have a major upward wave (referring to the ETH exchange rate), I'm just not sure when this major upward wave will occur, and I still hold the same view as in November⬇️
1. The BTC ETF will have a spillover effect;
2. Big institutions like BlackRock are doing RWA on Ethereum, which means the underlying value of Ethereum cannot be ignored;
3. The rise of the Base AI Agent ecosystem.
Looking at the price performance, tokens like $ONDO, $LINK, $UNI, and $ENS have started to become strong. This means that the market has started to focus on Ethereum-related Beta targets. This is a Bullish signal.
As for the choice of Ethereum Betas, there are basically three directions: 1. ETH staking related ($LDO, $EIGEN, LRT); 2. DeFi & RWA ($AAVE, $UNI, $COW, $MKR, $ONDO, $LINK); 3. Meme ($MOG, $PEPE, $SHRUB). Personally, I prefer DeFi-related ones, and indirectly hold $PENDLE and $EIGEN through $PNP and $EGP.
3/ Blockchain Wars
In my previous article on Stacks, I mentioned that the blockchain wars are about to begin again - in December you can see: 1) Fantom Sonic mainnet will be launched soon; 2) Avalanche9000 mainnet will be launched on December 16; 3) Aptos data growth + institutional adoption + ETP; 4) Stacks will introduce sBTC after the Satoshi upgrade to gain more adoption, etc.
Most of the surviving old public chains are trying to stir things up while the market is good. We should see a new round of Layer1 wars in December and Q1 next year. Don't forget that there is a brand new participant in this public chain war: HyperLiquid. From my perspective, the hype around $HYPE is not as strong as we imagined, with fewer participants/holders in the Chinese community (especially compared to $ACT and $PNUT). $HYPE still has upside potential in the future.
The few I mentioned above are all quite good in my opinion, and their common point is "willing to release expectations to drive prices" (my favorite among the old public chains is Fantom). I'll write a separate article to introduce the updates of Fantom and Avalanche.
In addition to Layer1, in Ethereum Layer2, I will pay attention to $METIS and Base. You can follow this project @ScoreMilk on Metis, which is the reason I'm interested in Metis.
Finally, a word about Base. Base has a very special tone, and when participating, try not to focus too much on whether the concept is good or not, but focus on whether it meets the needs of the Coinbase Cabal. Otherwise, even if the concept is good, it's likely to be a one-wave flow.
4/ Chain Abstraction
Just a simple mention of chain abstraction.
Chain abstraction/intent abstraction is a concept I'm quite optimistic about, as it can lower the entry barrier for blockchains and the complexity of on-chain interactions.
In this track, I only look at the product, not the token price - as long as the product is user-friendly, the token price fluctuation is not that important. Moreover, I believe that chain abstraction/intent abstraction still needs time to mature and develop.
Friends who like this track can take a look at the @ParticleNtwrk project. Particle is a modular & chain abstraction Layer1 (which I've also introduced before), and its core function is "to provide users with a single address and interaction front-end for cross-chain through a universal account". You can also take a look at the chain abstraction framework of @NEARProtocol.
https://x.com/stacy_muur/status/1859920525142941722
5/ What else is worth mentioning in December?
1. $IO will announce something this week (remember the AI trio I was optimistic about? $IO, $GRASS, $TAO);
2. 12.10 $ME TGE (we can see some signs of NFT recovery, which I personally think may be related to Opensea);
3. Coinbase will delist $WBTC;
4. You can pay attention to the AI infrastructure on Solana, $SHDW and $SNS
5. $HNT is a project I'm very optimistic about, and I think $HNT will have a relatively good performance in this round (just look at the Mobile data, although few people mention it, Mobile users have actually maintained a good growth rate)⬇️
December event schedule⬇️
https://x.com/breadnbutter247/status/1863527735093608807
If you are interested in any of the projects mentioned in this article, feel free to leave a message, and I will write a separate article to discuss it.
Thanks for your support🙏
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