Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储到 12 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 22.5%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 77.5%。到明年 1 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 17.2%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 64.5%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 18.2%。

美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至77.5%

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Odaily&quot;, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by December is 22.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 77.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 17.2%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 64.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 18.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 77.5%.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the US economy has performed stronger than it did in September 2019 when the Fed began cutting interest rates, making policymakers potentially more cautious about further rate cuts. Powell said: "We can be a bit more cautious because we're trying to find a neutral stance." Powell's remarks on Wednesday appear to be consistent with more cautious policymakers and largely echo the previous view that the Fed can "carefully" consider rate cuts without the need to act hastily. Powell's remarks on Wednesday did not significantly change the current expectation of a 25BP rate cut again in December. (Gold Ten)

Powell says Fed can be more cautious, largely unchanged rate cut expectations

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by The New York Times on Thursday at 02:45 Beijing time. Analysts at the monetary policy and global macroeconomic research consultancy LHMeyer said that Powell may still be unwilling to discuss his views on the December meeting. Powell is unlikely to have a clear inclination towards the decision in December like Volcker (who supported a rate cut in December). The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, but still believes that the possibility of a wait-and-see attitude is very high. Such an arrangement does not seem to trouble Powell. (Jinshi)

Analyst: Powell may avoid giving clear guidance tonight

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