Odaily星球日报讯 财经网站 Forexlive 分析师 Justin Low：所有人都在关注今天晚些时候公布的美国非农就业数据，这可能会导致欧洲市场较为安静。总体估计非农业就业人数将反弹至新增 20 万人，反弹的原因包括飓风和罢工后劳动力回归等。但无论今天的数据如何，过去几年非农业就业人数呈现明显下降趋势，也重申了劳动力市场的疲软，这是美联储在开始降息周期时一直在暗示的。即使新增就业人数超过 20 万，我认为这也不会迫使美联储改变本月降息的主意，尤其是明年劳动力市场可能会延续疲软趋势，且 11 月数据可能会受到前面提及的因素的影响。（金十）

非农前瞻：逾20万的就业增速也难以阻挡美联储12月降息

Odaily Odaily News, Justin Low, analyst at the financial website Forexlive: Everyone is paying attention to the US non-farm payrolls data to be released later today, which may lead to a quieter European market. The overall estimate is that non-farm payrolls will rebound to 200,000 new jobs. The reasons for the rebound include the return of the labor force after hurricanes and strikes. But regardless of today&#39;s data, non-farm payrolls have shown a clear downward trend in the past few years, and it also reaffirms the weakness of the labor market, which the Federal Reserve has been hinting at when it started the interest rate cut cycle. Even if the number of new jobs exceeds 200,000, I don&#39;t think it will force the Fed to change its mind about cutting interest rates this month, especially since the labor market may continue to be weak next year, and the November data may be affected by the factors mentioned earlier. (Jinshi)

Non-agricultural Outlook: More than 200,000 employment growth cannot stop the Fed from cutting interest rates in December

Here is the English translation, with the content within <> left untranslated:

According to a report by ChainCatcher, data from the US Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims increased slightly last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending November 30 was recorded at 224,000, compared to 215,000 in the previous week. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had previously forecast that the number of initial jobless claims in the most recent week would be 215,000. The number of continuing jobless claims fell to 1.87 million, compared to 1.90 million in the previous week. The data shows that the number of initial jobless claims has risen, but remains relatively stable. The November employment report will be released on Friday. Analysts expect that after the October employment data was affected by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the November employment report will show a significant rebound in employment.

After the US initial jobless claims data showed the labor market may be softening, US Treasury yields lost some momentum, and the US dollar weakened, which strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The initial jobless claims last week were 224,000, higher than the expected 215,000. The non-farm payroll data for November, which is expected to be released tomorrow, is forecast to jump from 124,000 in October to 214,000. The trade deficit narrowed to $73.8 billion in October, in line with expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield is reported at 4.208%, and the 2-year yield is at 4.161%, both higher than the previous day.

U.S. jobless claims rise, Treasury yields and dollar weaken

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The US ADP employment in November was 146,000, the smallest increase since August 2024. The expected was 150,000, and the previous value was revised from 233,000 to 184,000. (Gold Ten)

U.S. ADP employment in November was 146,000, lower than expected

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Investment bank Stifel economist Lindsey Piegza said that the Federal Reserve is about to suspend policy adjustments, as recent remarks by Chairman Powell reflect the formation of stricter standards in this regard. Federal Reserve officials are increasingly focused on whether economic data exceeds expectations, rather than just on strong economic performance. If the economy continues to show significant stability next year, the Federal Reserve may face challenges regarding potential rate cuts. I expect three more rate cuts next year, bringing rates closer to a neutral level, and lowering rates to 3.75% by the third quarter, which is a reasonable neutral level. As for this year, if the December data meets expectations, I believe the Federal Reserve will make the third round of rate cuts.