Odaily星球日报讯 分析师 Anstey 表示，鉴于今天报告中的一些复杂信号，下周的 CPI 通胀报告可能会对美联储 2025 年利率预测产生相当大的影响。鉴于今天发布的工资涨幅超出预期，服务业通胀（不包括住房）将特别值得关注。（金十）

下周CPI报告或对美联储2025年利率预测产生相当大的影响

Odaily Odaily News Analyst Anstey said that given some mixed signals in today&#39;s report, next week&#39;s CPI inflation report may have a considerable impact on the Fed&#39;s 2025 interest rate forecast. Given that the wage increase released today exceeded expectations, service industry inflation (excluding housing) will be particularly worthy of attention. (Jinshi)

Next week's CPI report could have a sizable impact on the Fed's 2025 interest rate forecast

According to Russ Brownback, the global head of fixed income macro strategy at BlackRock, the "quite strong" US employment report released on Friday may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this month, as the Fed's policy rate is still restrictive. Despite evidence of continued economic growth, some stickiness in inflation, and the stock market near historical highs, traders on Thursday morning expected the Fed to likely decide to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points from the current range of 4.5% to 4.75% later this month. Brownback said one reason for the rate cut may be that the Fed's "real" policy rate is currently higher than in July 2023, when the Fed made its last rate hike to curb high inflation. (<Odaily Planet Daily>)

BlackRock: Even if non-farm data is quite strong, it will not stop the Fed from cutting interest rates

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analyst Joseph said that the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, but the Federal Reserve will then skip rate cuts in January, March, and May, and eventually cut rates again in June or July. Given the upcoming economic data, we believe this view is not unrealistic. This is a significant change compared to the forecast of the rate cut magnitude at each meeting in 2025 three months ago. In addition, US bond yields and the US dollar have fallen, as US employment data has not been as surprising as many had expected. These data may still reflect the impact of hurricanes, the Boeing strike, and the US election, making it more difficult to understand how these factors will drive the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December. Inflation data will be released next week. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.171%, and the 2-year Treasury yield is 4.114%. The US dollar index has reversed its trend, falling 0.1% intraday. (Gold Ten)

The market expects the Fed to enter a wait-and-see period after cutting interest rates in December

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