The US November employment data exceeded expectations, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hit new highs. After experiencing an upswing and downswing the day before, Bitcoin attacked again last night and is currently hovering around $100,000. Ethereum has also returned to $4,000 for the first time in nearly nine months, with a market capitalization of $485 billion, temporarily surpassing Mastercard.
The non-farm payroll report supports the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in December
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday (12/6) showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, slightly higher than expected, and the October non-farm employment figure was revised up to 36,000, indicating that the labor market has rebounded from the previous adverse weather and strikes. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%.
Investors believe the US labor market is gradually slowing, but the economy remains robust, in line with the "Goldilocks" expectations, and leaves room for the Fed to cut rates again.
According to CME FedWatch data, 85% of traders expect the Fed to announce a 50 basis point rate cut at the next rate meeting on 12/18, up from 71% the previous day and 66% the previous week. However, it is likely to remain unchanged in January 2025, and the rate may only be cut by 3 basis points to 3.5% for the full year of 2025.
Bitcoin hovers around $100,000
After experiencing an upswing and downswing the day before, Bitcoin attacked again last night and is currently hovering around $100,000.
The Bitcoin spot ETF currently has total assets of $110.9 billion, accounting for 5.59% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto.
ETH tries to attack $4,000
Ethereum has also returned to $4,000 for the first time in nearly nine months. Its market capitalization has reached $485 billion, temporarily surpassing Mastercard. However, it still has about 20% upside potential to reach the 2021 high of $4,868.
The Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $429 million on 12/5, the highest level since its launch, and the total net assets of the 9 ETFs are now $13.1 billion, accounting for 2.73% of Ethereum's market capitalization.
Stablecoin issuer Tether minted another $200 million USDT on Ethereum yesterday.
ETH broke through $4,000, and the exchange rate broke through and stabilized at 0.04. Another wave of volume increase could accelerate the market trend.
Reduce positions or continue to hold?
Market sentiment and trend: The market sentiment index has risen to 91%, entering the extreme greed zone; although BTC briefly broke through $100,000 on Thursday and then corrected, the overall market resilience remains strong; the strong performance of ETH has driven the rise of the entire cryptocurrency market, showing the market's continued confidence in mainstream currencies.
Capital flow analysis: The market value of stablecoins continued to grow this week, with USDT growing 1.74% to $141 billion and USDC growing 2.03% to $40.2 billion, indicating that new capital is continuing to flow into the cryptocurrency market; on-chain data shows frequent large-scale transfer activities, with obvious signs of institutional capital entering the market; the off-exchange premium remains in a reasonable range, indicating a healthy supply and demand situation in the market.
Hotspot attention: Layer 1 projects have received the highest social media attention, with the PayFi sector achieving a weekly return of 40.04%; AI Agent projects are starting to receive new rounds of market attention, especially on Solana, TRON and Base; high-yield staking products in DeFi projects continue to receive attention; the trading activity of the Non-Fungible Token market has rebounded slightly, but the overall valuation is still in the process of finding a bottom.
Investment advice: It is suggested that investors maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude and focus on the following aspects: 1. Manage risks well, set reasonable stop-loss levels, and avoid excessive leverage; 2. Focus on liquidity staking and AI Agent sectors, and seize the opportunities of capital rotation; 3. Pay attention to the impact of important events, including the Microsoft Bitcoin investment proposal (December 11) and the US CPI data and European Central Bank interest rate decision next week; 4. Maintain sufficient liquidity to cope with possible market volatility, and adopt a phased investment strategy to avoid chasing highs.
