Author | Furu Ruo, Odaily Planet Daily
As 2025 approaches, in addition to Bitcoin successfully breaking through the 10,000 mark, the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) sector is also facing the final battle of the year.
The NFT blue-chip project Pudgy Penguins announced that it will release its token PENGU within 2024. NFTgo data shows that the floor price of Lil Pudgys has risen by 17.6% in 24 hours, reaching 1.92 ETH; the floor price of Pudgy Penguins has risen by more than 20%, reaching 18.5 ETH. The launch of Pudgy Penguins' token has revived the NFT market, driving a 66% increase in the daily trading volume of the NFT sector.
Odaily Planet Daily combines Pudgy Penguins' recent initiatives to conduct an in-depth analysis of its upcoming token launch and make a preliminary estimate of Pudgy Penguins' market value.
"Chubby Penguins" Token Launch, Estimated Market Value up to $1.5 Billion
Pudgy Penguins is an NFT project characterized by the cute penguin image. Despite experiencing lows such as team changes, under the leadership of the new CEO Luca Netz, through IP incubation, game development, and the launch of toys on Amazon, Pudgy Penguins has successfully positioned itself among the top three in the NFT sector in terms of market value.
During the previous bear market, Pudgy Penguins demonstrated strong market resilience. The project not only maintained a certain level of heat in the NFT market, but also enhanced its commercial value through multiple IP collaborations. For example, the Chubby Penguins exclusively collaborated with Walmart to launch a "celebrity gift box", and partnered with the premium cookie brand Last Crumb to launch a limited-edition Chubby Penguins cookie gift box. These initiatives have effectively expanded the brand's influence, allowing it to stand out in the highly competitive NFT market.
Now, the long-awaited Pudgy Penguins token launch is imminent. The official statement indicates that the PENGU token will first be issued on Solana, and the project plans to adopt a multi-chain strategy, with plans to enable it on Ethereum and Abstract Chain in the future.
PENGU Token Economics
The total supply of the PENGU token is 88,888,888,888, with the specific token allocation as follows:
- Team (1-year lock-up, 3-year vesting): 17.8%
- Expansion: 4%
- FTT holders: 0.35%
- Liquidity: 12.35%
- Public coordination: 4%
- Pudgy community: 25.9%
- Company (1-year lock-up, 3-year vesting): 11.48%
- Other communities: 24.12%
The proportion of the company and team is about 30%, while the community airdrop accounts for the majority at around 51%. The community airdrop has no lock-up period, and NFT holders on social media generally express support for this token economic model and look forward to the potential value of the airdropped tokens.
According to the analysis of the community user @BTCThinker88, the PENGU token airdrop value for Pudgy Penguins is expected to be quite considerable, with each holder potentially receiving $31,000 to $61,000 (approximately 7.9 ETH to 15.8 ETH); if Abstract Chain also provides token allocation for the Penguin community, this could become one of the largest wealth creation events in 2024 after HYPE.
According to the user's analysis, the market value (FDV) of the PENGU token is estimated to be between $1.5 billion and $3 billion, directly benchmarking against ApeCoin's $1.9 billion market value. If the existing NFT market value is used for the total volume calculation, the market value of Lil Pudgys is approximately $160 million, and the market value of Pudgy Penguins is approximately $650 million, with a total market value of approximately $810 million. The market value of the NFT projects under ApeCoin is approximately $1.2 billion. Benchmarking the NFT project market value against the token market value, the market value of the PENGU token is estimated to be around $1.3 billion; considering the potential upside during the initial token launch of NFT projects, the early market value of PENGU may be around $1.5 billion.
Is the Token Launch the Final Destination for the "Chubby Penguins"?
Previously, many well-known NFT projects have viewed token launches as their final destination. The correlation between the token and the NFT is not high, and in subsequent projects, the role of the token is minimal. Therefore, the market has criticized that token launches are the "retirement fund" pre-stored by NFT projects for the team.
For example, projects like BAYC and MEMEland performed well in the initial token launch, but due to the decline in narrative and market enthusiasm, the subsequent market performance has not been optimistic. The APE token of BAYC soared from $1 USDT to $28 USDT upon launch, but as the market enthusiasm waned, the price of APE also fell back.
In contrast, PENGU may not face the same fate after its launch. The Pudgy Penguins project has a unique community participation and a diversified development strategy, enhancing its long-term value through rich brand stories, game development, and collaborations with other brands. The official stated that Pudgy Toys will be relaunched in Walmart stores in 2025.
In addition, Pudgy Penguins has planned a series of follow-up projects, such as the launch of the Web3 game Pudgy Party and the development of new IPs next year, which will provide a wider application scenario for the PENGU token. Through these initiatives, Pudgy Penguins may view the token launch as a new starting point rather than an endpoint, further driving the growth of the brand and the activity of the community.
