Odaily星球日报讯 瑞讯银行分析师 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 在一份报告中表示，由于投资者押注美联储本月将进一步降息，美元小幅走低。上周五公布的非农就业数据显示，11 月就业增长有所改善，工资有所上升，但失业率意外上升。Ozkardeskaya 称，这些数据增强了市场对美联储将在 12 月会议上降息 25 个基点的预期。同时，尽管投资者在全球政治动荡之际寻求避险资产，这些预期支持了美元走软的理由。LSEG 的数据显示，市场目前认为 12 月份降息 25 个基点的可能性为 85%。（金十）

瑞讯银行：市场押注美联储再次降息，美元小幅走低

Odaily Odaily News: Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in a report that the dollar fell slightly as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this month. Non-farm payrolls data released last Friday showed that job growth improved in November and wages rose, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose. Ozkardeskaya said the data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting. At the same time, although investors seek safe-haven assets amid global political turmoil, these expectations support the case for a weaker dollar. LSEG data shows that the market currently believes that there is an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. (Jinshi)

Swissquote Bank: The market is betting on another Fed rate cut, and the dollar is slightly lower

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

The Mars Finance news reported that the closely watched US non-farm payroll data for November this week was better than expected, but not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again later this month. The market has raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Fed officials are inclined to be cautious about rate cuts. The US inflation data in the coming week is the only important data that could shake the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in December. After the data showed that the US labor market remains strong but also has signs of slowing, Fed officials seem to be expected to cut rates this month, but the debate on possibly pausing rate cuts next year has already been put on the table. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's silent period generally said they expect interest rates to continue to decline, while taking a cautious approach to the pace of rate cuts. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:
<Monday 9:30, China's November CPI year-on-year>
<Monday 23:00, US October wholesale sales month-on-month>
<Tuesday 0:00, US November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation>
<Wednesday 21:30, US November CPI and core CPI>
<Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7; US November PPI year-on-year, month-on-month>
<Friday 1:00, the Fed releases the flow of funds for the third quarter of 2024>
<Friday 21:30, US November import price index month-on-month>

Next week's macro outlook: The Fed enters its regular silent period, and CPI data may create suspense about interest rate cuts

ChainCatcher reported that the data released last Friday showed that non-farm employment was better than expected, with the unemployment rate rising slightly, strengthening the expectation of a rate cut in December. The market expects the possibility of a rate cut in December to rise to around 85%. According to 4E monitoring, the surge in tech stocks last week pushed the major US stock indices to new highs, with the Nasdaq rising more than 3%, the S&P 500 index rising nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq and S&P both hitting new highs, while the Dow Jones was the only index to fall, down about 0.5%. The cryptocurrency market is thriving, with the Bitcoin spot ETF seeing net inflows for a consecutive week, totaling nearly $2.8 billion, and the stablecoin market cap increasing by $39.653 billion, a growth of 2.56%. The strong inflow of funds has led to the breaching of the $10,000 and $4,000 price levels for Bitcoin and ETH, respectively, and Altcoins have seen a broad-based rally, with several major coins doubling in value. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $10,000 level, providing opportunities for Altcoins. In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar continued to strengthen last week, jumping significantly after the non-farm data release but ultimately turning higher, gaining 0.22% for the week. The US dollar's rise has limited the upside potential of gold prices, but the expectation of a rate cut has provided support, leading to gold prices fluctuating in a narrow range, with the overall market sentiment being cautious. Oil prices fell for three consecutive days last week due to concerns about oversupply, with WTI down 1.17% and Brent down 1% for the week. Recent data suggests that the US's anti-inflation progress may be stalling, and the CPI data to be released this Wednesday will be a key factor in the Fed's interest rate decision this month. The market expects the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on December 18 to be around 85%. However, the expectation of fewer rate cuts next year is continuing to strengthen. Additionally, as the year-end approaches, large investment institutions are facing portfolio rebalancing to accommodate year-end balance sheet and tax issues, which may cause short-term liquidity shocks in the US stock market, potentially being the most significant adverse factor recently, and is expected to put pressure on risk assets. eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, gold, and foreign exchange, and has recently launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: US stocks and crypto markets remain active, and this week's CPI data is key to the Fed's December rate cut

According to the report by Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, the rise in the US unemployment rate should be sufficient reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. The US non-farm payroll in November was 227,000, higher than the 214,000 expected by analysts surveyed by <The Wall Street Journal>, but the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% reported last Friday to 4.2%. If the Fed policymakers are concerned about Trump obstructing the decline in inflation in the early part of his presidency, or potential upside inflation risks, they may skip the rate hike in January.