Over the past week, BTC has seen a roller coaster market. Starting from December 5, BTC surged strongly to a new all-time high of $104,088 and stabilized above $100,000. On December 6, BTC saw a significant correction, with the price plummeting to as low as $90,000 at 6 AM. Subsequently, the BTC price entered a correction phase and repeatedly returned to $100,000. In the early hours of the 10th, the BTC price began to plummet rapidly, reaching a low of $94,800, with a weekly decline of over 13%. The current price is fluctuating around $97,000 (the above data is from Binance spot, 7:00 PM on December 10). With the fluctuation of the BTC price, the upward trend of Altcoins has also been weakened, and most cryptocurrencies have also declined.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire cryptocurrency market has seen $1.574 billion in contract liquidations, with 511,000 people being liquidated, of which $1.388 billion were long positions and $185 million were short positions.
Market Interpretation
US stock prices are approaching the level of the 2000 bubble economy, and the market still expects further upside in US stocks
As of the close of the US stock market yesterday, the three major stock indexes collectively fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.54%, the S&P 500 down 0.61%, and the Nasdaq down 0.62%. From a macroeconomic perspective, the market is waiting for the release of the inflation report this week, trying to gauge the direction of the Fed's subsequent policies. In terms of news, affected by the market regulator's case against Nvidia for alleged "anti-trust" violations, Nvidia fell as much as 4% intraday, and Nvidia's poor performance dragged down the overall technology sector. At the same time, Chinese concept assets have seen a pleasing upward trend.
The market believes that with the inauguration of Trump, the US dollar index may hit new highs again. Strategists at Société Générale believe that Trump's re-inflationary policies could push the S&P 500 index to 6,500 points by April next year, compared to yesterday's close of 6,052.85 points.
Institutions remain bullish on the BTC trend, and MicroStrategy continues to increase its holdings
On December 9, MicroStrategy announced that it has purchased an additional $210 million worth of BTC, bringing its total BTC holdings to over $4.1 billion. The company's fundraising through the issuance of stocks and fixed-income securities to purchase BTC has attracted much market attention, and its stock is among the top ten investment returns of the year. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to accelerate the strategic transformation.
During the same period, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated, "We still firmly believe that $100,000 is not the ultimate milestone for Bitcoin, and we expect Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of $200,000 by the end of 2025."
Russian lawmakers propose establishing a national BTC reserve to counter economic sanctions
According to BlockBeats, Russian lawmaker Anton Tkachev has proposed establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, positioning it as a tool to counter economic sanctions and ensure financial stability. In a formal appeal to the Finance Minister, Tkachev suggested establishing a Bitcoin reserve similar to traditional foreign exchange reserves. He believes that cryptocurrencies have unique advantages in mitigating risks related to sanctions, inflation, and currency volatility.
This proposal is in line with the broader initiative by the Central Bank of Russia to incorporate digital assets into the international payment system.
Macroeconomic Data Analysis
Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, but signs of weakness remain
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 227,000 in November, the largest increase since March 2024. Although the overall non-farm employment data was slightly higher than expected, the weak data from the previous month (only 12,000) was almost unchanged, indicating that there are indeed some signs of weakness in the job market.
Initial jobless claims in the US exceed expectations, indicating a gradual cooling of the job market
US Department of Labor data shows that in the week ending November 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 9,000 to a total of 224,000, exceeding the expected 215,000. The slightly higher unemployment rate indicates that the US job market is gradually cooling, but has not yet deteriorated significantly.
The release of the US core inflation rate is imminent, and the interpretation of the Fed's subsequent path will become the direction of the market
On the 13th, the US core inflation rate will be released. This data is the key information for the market to interpret the Fed's subsequent path. Based on the current non-farm data, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates again in December has increased, and the market currently expects an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and about a 30% chance of another rate hike in January.
