Master Scribe Discusses Hot Topics:
As expected, the CPI data pulled the market last night, similar to the non-farm situation last Friday. But what Master Scribe wants to mention more is the downtrend rule mentioned in the article yesterday: in most cases, the downtrend will not last more than 72 hours. This is not occult, but the rhythm rule of the market.
Many people say it's hard to see the trend, yes, it's elusive, untouchable, like scratching an itch through a boot. But it's not actually difficult - interest rate cuts, ETFs, elections, unemployment rates, all kinds of clues have left clear trajectories in the history of a century, it's just a matter of whether you can apply this main line. Master Scribe often says "Trend is King", and the "King" here is the causality of trading.
Here's a brain-teaser: Who will be the first president in history to want to build a "Crypto Empire"? He will claim on taking office: "In the initial period, BTC will surge to $150,000!" And the Vice President, SEC Chairman, and CFTC Chairman will all be crypto supporters, the visual impact is mind-blowing, right? This is not a fantasy, but a narrative war behind the capital market, and perhaps we will really see it in the future.
Back to BTC, the turnover rate today is nearly 50% lower than yesterday. What does this mean? It means that the panicked investors have basically left the market, and the market sentiment is cooling down and gradually returning to rationality. Short-term investors still dominate the situation, but the process of washing out the floating stocks has just begun.
After Microsoft voted not to buy BTC, the market fluctuated within a range of 1,000 points, and many friends thought the market had gone to sleep. But that's not the case, the real core of the market is who is the buyer.
Retail investors' pessimistic predictions between $80,000 and $70,000 are understandable, but what they haven't noticed is that the selling pressure in the current market has already weakened, and as long as there is no obvious negative news, no one is willing to easily give up their positions.
The $94,500 support is still relatively firm, and if $MSTR is really included in the Nasdaq 100 index as rumored, it will inevitably further boost market sentiment.
The good news is that a brief frenzy may come on the weekend, but the bad news is whether the FOMO sentiment can continue on Monday, which is really hard to say. After all, what comes fast also leaves faster, the market is like life, with ups and downs, all in a moment.
So don't always complain that Master Scribe's words are too verbose, the logic behind them needs to be savored slowly. Seeing long is simple; sticking to it for a long time is the most difficult. When everyone is bearish, being able to calmly say "it's fine" is the trust in the trend.
Master Scribe Looks at the Trend:
With the CPI data meeting expectations, the market uncertainty has been eliminated, prompting BTC to rebound and break through the $100K range again. Since $100K has been broken through again, this time it needs to consolidate and stabilize in the $100K range before we can see a short-term rebound, in order to maintain the $100K stabilization view.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: $101,500
Second Resistance: $102,300
Support Levels:
First Support: $100,500
Second Support: $99,500
Suggestions for Today:
If BTC can defend the first support level in the short term, it is expected to form an N-shaped uptrend. This is the key area for short-term expected rebound, and it is suggested to take $100K as the psychological support level for short-term operations.
The $100K-$100.5K range is also an important trading range for further upside, if the price does not fall below the low point and consolidates sideways, the rebound view will still continue. It should be noted that since there is a new high point above $100K, it is also a relatively strong resistance area, and it is not suitable to carry out medium and long-term new position operations at this stage.
Intraday can still maintain a rebound view, plan to try to enter the market during the adjustment phase. And expect the successful stabilization of $100K, can try to deploy positions in the pullback area, while closely monitor the changes in trading volume of the maximum support level of $99.5K.
Master Scribe's Wave Forecast on 12.12:
Long Entry: $99,300-$98,800 area, light long position. If it falls back to around $98,200, can directly long. Target: $100,500-$101,500
Short Entry: Around $102,950, light short position. $103,800-$104,100 area can directly short. Target: $101,500-$100,500
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