The market is experiencing a retaliatory rebound, and four major positive factors may become boosters for the future market?
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The Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates this month.
Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
After the crypto market saw over $1.7 billion in liquidations in a single day on December 10th, the market's leverage has been largely unwound, and its health has returned to normal. Today, Bitcoin has once again surpassed $100,000, rising nearly 5% in 24 hours, while ETH has reached $3,900, up over 7% in 24 hours. The strong performance of Ethereum has led an altcoin rally, with SOL up over 6%, SUI setting a new all-time high with a gain of over 30%, and SEI up more than 14% in 24 hours. In the AI sector, WLD has risen over 16%, IO over 23%, and ARKM over 12%.
The Ethereum ecosystem, including DeFi, staking, L2, and stablecoins, has also seen a broad-based rally, with EIGEN up over 22% and ENA up over 21% in 24 hours. OP and ARB have also seen gains of around 10% or more.
In terms of contract data, Coinglass data shows that the 24-hour total network liquidation was $228 million, with $154 million in short liquidations.
With the market rally, the sentiment has shifted from skepticism to optimism. What has happened in the market?
**Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF Data Continues to See Significant Net Inflows**
Bitcoin spot ETF data is an important indicator for observing off-exchange capital inflows. While there have been 7 net outflows since November, the amounts have been relatively small.
In contrast, the number of net inflow days has far exceeded the net outflow days. Furthermore, Bitcoin spot ETF data has seen 9 consecutive days of net inflows since November 27th, with capital continuing to pour in. The total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $34.45 billion.
For Ethereum spot ETFs, after an initial cold reception and months of sluggishness, they have now seen continuous large net inflows.
Since November 22nd, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen 12 consecutive days of net inflows, with 3 individual days seeing net inflows exceeding $300 million. To date, the total net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs has reached $1.89 billion, with a daily trading volume exceeding $470 million.
The constant inflow of off-exchange capital has played a significant role in the rise of Ethereum's price.
**CPI Meets Expectations, the Fed Likely to Cut Rates Again This Month**
Last night around 9 PM, the unadjusted November CPI year-over-year rate rebounded further, rising for the second consecutive month to 2.7%, in line with market expectations, reaching a four-month high.
As one of the key data points for the Fed's decision-making, although it has seen a significant increase, it is unlikely to prevent the Fed from cutting rates next week.
In recent months, the process of bringing the inflation rate down to the Fed's 2% target has actually stalled. However, the Fed is now more focused on the labor market. After being severely disrupted by strikes and hurricanes in October, job growth accelerated in November, but the unemployment rate has accelerated to 4.2% after holding steady at 4.1% for two consecutive months.
Goldman Sachs analyst Whitney Watson stated that today's CPI data has cleared the way for a rate cut next week. After the data release, the Fed will enter a "quiet period," and they remain confident in the progress of their anti-inflation efforts, "We believe the Fed will continue to gradually ease monetary policy in the new year."
Yesterday, traders have already increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in December, with the swap market's probability of a rate cut this month rising from 86.1% before the data release to 96.4%.
If the Fed cuts rates again this month, it will undoubtedly increase market liquidity, which will be positive for the crypto market.
**Trump-Linked Crypto Project WLFI Increases Holdings of Ethereum and DeFi Projects**
As the incoming US president, the crypto project WLFI linked to Trump has been closely watched by the market. Not only did Trump's son express belief that "BTC will reach $1 million, it's a better investment than real estate, and those who embrace crypto early will succeed" at a Bitcoin conference in the Middle East and North Africa.
Just a day later, WLFI took "concrete action." Lookonchain monitoring shows that over the past 10 hours, its wallet address has spent $10 million to purchase 2,631 ETH at an average cost of $3,801, $1 million worth of 41,335 LINK at an average cost of $24.2, and $1 million worth of AAVE at an average cost of $297.8.
As of now, LINK is priced at $26.7, up over 20% in 24 hours, and AAVE is priced at $332, up over 22% in 24 hours.
With Trump's immense influence, WLFI's capital dynamics will likely receive even greater attention and impact in the future.
**Crypto Fund Ads Appear on Alipay Fund Homepage**
Today, a crypto fund promotion ad appeared on the homepage of the Alipay fund section, sparking considerable discussion in the community. Some users received ads for a crypto fund on the homepage, with the content stating "Global investment, crypto soaring, 10 RMB to start, get on board now."
After verification, the fund is the Hwabao Overseas Technology C (QDII-FOF-LOF), which is a compliant model for investing in overseas assets, indirectly holding Coinbase stock and the ARK Invest Bitcoin spot ETF. The current daily purchase limit is 1,000 RMB per person.
As is well known, mainland China has always taken a strict regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies, prohibiting any exchange trading and token promotion. The appearance of this crypto fund promotion on the Alipay homepage may lead the market to speculate on the possibility of China opening up certain investment channels for the crypto market in the future.
**Future Market Outlook**
Weiss Crypto analyst Juan M Villaverde stated in an analysis of the recent sharp decline that $100,000 for Bitcoin is a key level. If Bitcoin can break through and stabilize above this level again, the current altcoin rally will not end prematurely. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold above $100,000, the fate of altcoins will likely return to their starting point.
Matrixport has emphasized that Ethereum's price is expected to rise significantly by 2025. The inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs may reflect a reallocation or expansion of investment focus, coinciding with the typical start of a new fiscal year for US mutual funds on December 1st, and also reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for 2025. If this demand continues, Ethereum's price in 2025 may see a significant increase.
Bitwise is quite optimistic and has predicted that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will all reach new all-time highs by 2025, with the following target prices:
- Bitcoin: $200,000
- Ethereum: $7,000
- Solana: $750
The above analyses and predictions are not investment advice. During a bull market cycle, the market can be highly volatile, and investors need to pay attention to "risk control."
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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