Author: Delphi Digital
Compiled | Odaily
Translator | Azuma
Editor's Note: On December 11, the well-known research institution Delphi Digital released a market outlook report for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025. This article is the first part of the report, mainly outlining Delphi Digital's analysis of Bitcoin's trend and upside potential compared to 2015.
Delphi Digital mentioned that if historical trends repeat, Bitcoin's current cycle will rise to around $175,000, and could even surge to $190,000 - $200,000 in the short term.
The following is the original content from Delphi Digital, compiled by Odaily.
At the end of 2022, we outlined the reasons why the bear market had bottomed out.
15 months ago, we began to express our confidence in the upcoming bull market cycle more directly.
In last year's annual report, we also predicted that BTC would break new highs in Q4 2024.
Although from a technical perspective, BTC had already set new highs in late March this year due to ETF speculation, the recent breakout is more in line with our original expectations.
When we released last year's annual report, there were only a little over 3 months left until the next Bitcoin halving. From historical data, we observed that BTC often rises a few weeks before the halving, and then consolidates after the halving, laying the foundation for a larger rally afterwards.
Fast-forwarding to today, BTC's actual performance has basically followed this path.
The recent BTC surge has put the market in a very favorable position to move towards an even larger space.
We reiterate our view that Bitcoin halvings are not the key catalysts for bull markets - they just happen to coincide with BTC's cyclical uptrend timing.
As shown in the following chart, this was the situation at the time.
And the current situation is as follows.
BTC's performance is highly consistent with Delphi Digital's cycle predictions, which is almost a miracle.
Readers who have been following Delphi Digital's research reports for a long time may know why this is the case - it's not a miracle.
The market is driven by momentum, which is clearly reflected in BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Each of BTC's historical new highs has coincided with the "monthly RSI indicator breaking above 70". In previous bull markets, the market often only exhausted its momentum until this indicator broke above 90.
If this historical pattern repeats, BTC must rise to around $175,000 in this cycle to reach the corresponding RSI level (and potentially even $190,000-$200,000 if it starts to go parabolic). This prediction is based on the assumption that the top of the current cycle will see a period of accelerated upside, similar to most previous cycles.
In terms of volatility, BTC's current volatility is far below the "1-2 standard deviations" volatility that typically signals a cyclical top.
In such a rapidly evolving industry, it's hard to see the forest for the trees. We all know that volatility is a double-edged sword, which is why the time horizon is important.
If you need more proof, here's an interesting fact. Even if you bought BTC at the cyclical top in November 2021, if you held on, its performance to date would still outperform all other major asset classes.
Bitcoin breaking new highs is not just an attractive headline, but the ultimate driver of "risk-on" sentiment for the cryptocurrency market.
"Price is the ultimate driver of attention, capital flows, and on-chain activity".
In the previous cycle, it was not until Bitcoin price decisively broke its previous high that retail investors flooded in. This trend can be seen from the surge in Google search volume and Bitcoin-related news coverage, as well as the growth in Coinbase's retail trading revenue. Investor confidence and risk appetite tend to rise when Bitcoin "takes off" and breaks new highs.
Price drives increased attention, which in turn accelerates FOMO and capital inflows.
The flow trends of BTC ETFs this year clearly demonstrate this pattern.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) ranked third in inflows among all ETFs this year, with only the two largest S&P 500 ETFs exceeding it, whose combined assets under management are about 20 times that of IBIT (around $1.1 trillion).
Price is the ultimate driver, and compared to traditional asset classes, Bitcoin has ranked first in asset appreciation for two consecutive years.
BTC has not only set new highs against the US dollar, but also against the NDX (Nasdaq 100 index), which itself has risen nearly 30% this year.
BTC has also set new highs against the SPX (S&P 500 index), which is expected to have its best performance in the past three decades this year.
Compared to gold, BTC has also set new highs.
We've said it before, and the day will come when BTC's stigma will be erased. The day will come when not being exposed to BTC will be the biggest risk investors and institutions face. In our view, that day has arrived.
Mocking Bitcoin is no longer a cool thing to do. This cycle will cement BTC's status as a macro asset that can no longer be ignored.
BTC's current market cap is around $2 trillion.
That's a big number. If Bitcoin were a publicly traded company, BTC would be the sixth most valuable asset in the world.
Not long ago, many still thought a $100,000 BTC was just a pipe dream. Now, social media timelines are filled with expectations like these:
At $91,150, BTC will flip Saudi Aramco;
At $109,650, BTC will flip Amazon;
At $107,280, BTC will flip Google;
At $156,700, BTC will flip Microsoft;
At $170,900, BTC will flip Apple;
At $179,680, BTC will flip Nvidia...
Bitcoin is now large enough to warrant the attention it deserves, but not yet so large that it lacks sufficient room for further growth.
At the time of writing this:
The market capitalization of BTC still only accounts for 11% of the total market capitalization of the MAG 7 (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA);
The market capitalization of BTC is still less than 3% of the total market capitalization of US stocks, and 1.5% of the global stock market;
The total market capitalization of BTC still only accounts for 5% of the total outstanding public debt of the United States, less than 0.7% of the total global debt (public debt + private debt);
The funds held by US money market funds are 3 times the market capitalization of BTC;
The market capitalization of BTC still only accounts for 15% of the total global foreign exchange reserve assets. Assuming that global central banks reallocate 5% of their gold reserves to BTC, this will bring in over $150 billion in additional purchasing power, equivalent to 3 times the net inflow of IBIT this year;
Household net worth is at an all-time high (over $160 trillion) - more than $40 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic peak - driven mainly by rising house prices and a booming stock market. This figure is 80 times the current market capitalization of Bitcoin.
The key is that BTC and the cryptocurrency market still have a large and deep pool of capital to be utilized. When investors are confident in the upward trend of the cryptocurrency market, all of these will become potential demand.
Given that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are driving down the value of their national currencies by 5-7% per year, investors need to achieve a return of 10-15% per year to hedge the loss of real purchasing power.
This is why investors' attention is increasingly turning to high-growth industries, as this is the best place to seek returns above the average.
We believe that as the accumulated positive factors continue to outweigh the potential negative factors, investors will be more willing to take on a certain degree of risk in pursuit of higher returns.
