The crypto market is still dominated by the trend of Bitcoin. Recently, Bitcoin has maintained a fluctuating upward trend on the weekend, showing a situation of blood-sucking consolidation at high levels. The performance of most mainstream altcoins is weaker than that of Bitcoin.
The focus for the next step is how BTC will react after the US stock market opens tonight, as it has already broken through new highs. It is hoped that the US stock market can bring about a significant buying of ETFs, avoiding a sharp sell-off, and the sentiment remains good.
Currently, BTC is at the position of 105,000. To predict whether it will first reach 110,000 or pull back to around 100,000, I am more inclined to the latter. However, even after a pullback, BTC still has the possibility of breaking through the previous high again. The current market is like torturing the contract funds, and the party with large funds is often harvested.
The biggest event this week is the FOMC meeting. A 25-basis-point rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, and the key is Powell's speech, which may stimulate market sentiment. Japan is expected not to raise interest rates this month. Therefore, the future market trend, especially the performance around Christmas, is worth watching.
If this new high is seen as the start of a new round of uptrend, there are two possibilities:
1. A small-scale push similar to the previous round.
2. The previous round of uptrend was the first wave, and the uptrend starting from 100,609 is the first round of the third wave.
Further judgment needs to be made based on the performance after the US stock market opens tonight.
However, in any case, the trading principle of "following as the main, predicting as the auxiliary" should be followed. As long as Bitcoin continues to rise strongly, the overall market in the crypto will be relatively good, and opportunities will also appear in the Altcoin market when Bitcoin is strong.
Regarding the risks around Christmas:
Christmas is an important holiday in the West, and the year-end settlement will affect the liquidity of the market. After the US stock market is closed, the liquidity of BTC may be affected. If BTC falls, Altcoins may face greater pressure. Therefore, before and after Christmas, capital outflows may lead to a short-term sluggish market, and this sentiment usually lasts until New Year's Day.
Nevertheless, the long-term upward trend will not change. With Trump's re-inauguration and the appointment of the new SEC chairman, the market's upward momentum is expected to continue, and there may be new opportunities for an uptrend in January-February 2025. At that time, if Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong sentiment, especially with the strength of Ethereum, Altcoins may see a surge similar to the beginning of this year.
Regarding Altcoins:
From a macro perspective, the current market performance is very similar to October last year, and the reference value of historical K-lines is high. The Altcoin market often takes turns to rise with the strength of Bitcoin, especially in a strongly stimulated market environment, such as after the AI craze, there may be a resurgence of strong Altcoins like HBAR, ADA, and RSR.
The meme track may continue to strengthen, and coins like Pepe, Pnut, and Doge still have opportunities. Trump-related coins, such as Ena, Link, Aave, and ENS, are still strong. Other sectors related to the Sui chain have not yet seen a breakthrough, and the overall Altcoin market may have to wait until Ethereum breaks through $4,000 before there is a turning point.
In general, the market is still unstable, and spot trading needs to be cautious. If you want a higher return, you can try to participate in the primary market.
