Odaily星球日报讯 潘森宏观经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯和奥利弗·艾伦表示，在本周即将做出的政策决定之前，美联储官员们处于沟通中断状态，但预计他们将一致决定降息 25 个基点。美联储理事沃勒在会议前表示，他倾向于降息 25 个基点，这是委员会成员中最明确的政策评论。经济学家们预计，鉴于通胀顽固地持续高于目标，暂停降息将是美联储在 1 月份会议上的默认选项。（金十）

机构：预计美联储12月将一致同意降息

Odaily Odaily News Panson Macroeconomists Samuel Thomas and Oliver Allen said that Federal Reserve officials are in a communication breakdown before the upcoming policy decision this week, but they are expected to unanimously decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Fed Governor Waller said before the meeting that he was inclined to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was the clearest policy comment among the committee members. Economists expect that given that inflation stubbornly continues to be above the target, pausing interest rate cuts will be the default option of the Fed at its January meeting. (Jinshi)

Institution: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will unanimously agree to cut interest rates in December

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On December 15, Bitcoin extended its rally to seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2021. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.82% cumulatively, the S&P 500 index fell 0.64% ending a three-week winning streak, while the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Next week, as the last important monetary policy week of 2024, will attract investors' attention. The key events are as follows:

Monday 15:30, ECB President Lagarde to deliver a speech;
Tuesday 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor MacLem to deliver a speech;
Thursday 03:00, the Fed to release its interest rate decision and economic projections summary;
Thursday 03:30, Fed Chair Powell to hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday (time to be confirmed), the Bank of Japan to announce its interest rate decision;
Thursday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 21:30, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision, US Q3 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released next Friday. Economists forecast that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) to be published on Friday may rise 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating economic resilience. The US November retail sales data on Tuesday may also point to similar strong momentum.

According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 96%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 4.75%-5.00% is 4%.

Next week's macro outlook: The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision, and PCE data is coming

Odaily reports that analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. While lower interest rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, the comments and economic forecasts the Fed will make at the Wednesday meeting may reduce expectations for further rate cuts amid ongoing inflation concerns. Recent US CPI and PPI data have raised concerns about potential price pressures next year, especially given speculation around the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, while macroeconomic events remain influential, QCP Capital analysts believe Bitcoin's recent rally has been primarily driven by market sentiment. (The Block)

Viewpoint: Inflation risks may limit the Fed’s 2025 policy measures and affect risky assets

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On December 16, according to 4E monitoring, the S&P 500 ended its three-week rally last week, falling 0.64% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% for the week, marking its seventh consecutive trading day of decline; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.34% for the week, reaching a record high of 20,000 points for the first time.

Bitcoin rose above $100,000 last week, setting the longest seven-week winning streak since 2021. The heat in the <Altcoin> market has cooled, with generally large pullbacks. For the week, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $2.115 billion, Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about $712.7 million, and the supply of <USDT> increased by $2.1 billion, indicating a continued positive sentiment. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has suddenly surged, breaking through the historical high to reach $106,648, and the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap have also risen by nearly 1% to 4%.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index performed strongly last week, breaking above 107 on Friday and continuing to hit new two-week highs, rising nearly 1% for the week, the best weekly performance in a month, while non-US currencies fell across the board for the week. International oil prices surged across the board last week, driven by geopolitical tensions, ending a two-week losing streak, with US oil up more than 6% for the week and Brent oil up 4.54% for the week. Benefiting from market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, spot gold rose 0.56% for the week.

The most closely watched economic event this week is the FOMC meeting to be held on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision and quarterly economic forecast will be announced. The market has already fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, and the real focus is on clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The market expects rate cuts next year to be more cautious and gradual, and there may even be a pause in rate cuts as early as January.

In addition, this week is also the last "Super Central Bank Week" of 2024, with as many as 25 central banks, including those of Japan, the UK and Sweden, holding policy meetings in the same week, and the release of some key central bank decisions may trigger market volatility, especially in the 24-hour non-stop foreign exchange and commodity markets.

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4E: The expectation of suspending interest rate cuts next year has caused setbacks in US stocks. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting