Odaily星球日报讯 标普表示，预计 FOMC 本周的会议将降息 25 个基点，并对未来的宽松政策持谨慎态度。预计美联储修订后的经济预测认为，到明年年底，联邦基金利率将达到 3.5%-3.75%，高于此前预计的 3%-3.25%。这一调整反映出，经济增长比之前所理解的更具弹性，通胀冲动持续过度，以及新一届政府的政策偏好给通胀预期带来的上行风险。

标普预计美联储明年降息次数将减少

Odaily Odaily News: S&amp;P said it expects the FOMC to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this week&#39;s meeting and is cautious about future easing policies. The Fed&#39;s revised economic forecast is expected to see the federal funds rate reach 3.5%-3.75% by the end of next year, higher than the previous forecast of 3%-3.25%. This adjustment reflects that economic growth is more resilient than previously understood, inflationary impulses continue to be excessive, and the upside risks to inflation expectations posed by the new administration&#39;s policy preferences.

S&P expects Fed to cut interest rates less frequently next year

According to the article by Nick Timiraos, the renowned journalist known as the "Fed whisperer" of The Wall Street Journal, the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans are constantly changing, and investors generally expect a third consecutive rate cut this week. After that, officials are prepared to slow down or even stop cutting rates. Timiraos said Powell is trying to find the right positioning amid signs that the labor market is not as volatile and inflation is slightly more stable than in September. Some officials have expressed doubts about further rate cuts, and those who previously strongly supported the first two rate cuts are no longer as confident. One option this week is to cut rates by 25 basis points and then use the new economic forecasts to strongly suggest that the central bank is prepared to cut rates more slowly.

"Federal Reserve megaphone": After the December rate cut, officials may be ready to slow down or even stop rate cuts

Odaily reports that analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. While lower interest rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, the comments and economic forecasts the Fed will make at the Wednesday meeting may reduce expectations for further rate cuts amid ongoing inflation concerns. Recent US CPI and PPI data have raised concerns about potential price pressures next year, especially given speculation around the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, while macroeconomic events remain influential, QCP Capital analysts believe Bitcoin's recent rally has been primarily driven by market sentiment. (The Block)

Viewpoint: Inflation risks may limit the Fed’s 2025 policy measures and affect risky assets

Here is the English translation:

On December 15, Bitcoin extended its rally to seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest winning streak since 2021. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.82% cumulatively, the S&P 500 index fell 0.64% ending a three-week winning streak, while the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Next week, as the last important monetary policy week of 2024, will attract investors' attention. The key events are as follows:

Monday 15:30, ECB President Lagarde to deliver a speech;
Tuesday 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor MacLem to deliver a speech;
Thursday 03:00, the Fed to release its interest rate decision and economic projections summary;
Thursday 03:30, Fed Chair Powell to hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday (time to be confirmed), the Bank of Japan to announce its interest rate decision;
Thursday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 21:30, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision, US Q3 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released next Friday. Economists forecast that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) to be published on Friday may rise 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating economic resilience. The US November retail sales data on Tuesday may also point to similar strong momentum.

According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is 96%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 4.75%-5.00% is 4%.