Source: cryptoslate
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
According to the latest "Bitfinex Alpha" report, if BTC replicates the price trajectory of the 2017 bull market, it could reach a peak of $290,000 in early 2026.
This forecast is based on historical price patterns, institutional adoption, and key technical indicators in the bull market cycle.
After the bear market low in November 2022, BTC rebounded strongly in 2023, with a gain of 155.5%.
This momentum has continued into 2024, with BTC trading mostly between $55,000 and $70,000 for much of the year, a year-to-date gain of 143%.
The current bull market cycle began in the mid-to-late 2023, driven by anticipation of BTC's 2024 halving event, which historically has occurred in bull market years.
Additionally, the report attributes the strength of this cycle to institutional buying pressure and the launch of a U.S. spot BTC ETF, which have provided stable demand and limited the scale and duration of market corrections.
In the 2017 cycle, BTC's maximum correction was 33.2%, while in the 2020 cycle, it was 27.1%.
In the current cycle, due to increasing institutional interest, BTC's corrections have been more controlled, further enhancing market stability.
The BTC cycle top indicator is an important tool for predicting BTC's price peak, and has historically been very accurate in signaling cycle highs.
The indicator tracks the relationship between the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and twice the 350-day moving average (350DMAx2).
In previous cycles, when the 111DMA has crossed above the 350DMAx2, BTC has typically reached an important price peak.
The report emphasizes that if the 2021 cycle pattern is repeated, this crossover could occur as early as June 29, 2025; if a prolonged 2017-style cycle emerges, it could occur as late as January 28, 2026.
Based on historical performance, BTC's peak values during bull market runs have been significantly higher than its moving averages.
In 2017, BTC's trading value was three times its moving average peak. However, as BTC has matured, returns have been diminishing, indicating more conservative price forecasts.
According to Bitfinex's projections, if BTC follows the 2021 trajectory, its price could be around 40% higher than the moving average, reaching approximately $339,000.
However, considering the lower returns, BTC may peak at 15% to 20% above the moving average, reaching $160,000 to $200,000 by mid-2025.
Meanwhile, if the 2017 cycle is less likely to be repeated, BTC could reach a peak of around $290,000 in early 2026.
The report states that while historical indicators suggest the most likely scenarios are for BTC to reach peaks of $160,000 to $290,000, the path to these heights will depend on market maturity, ETF adoption, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
