The analyst of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex holds an optimistic attitude towards the cryptocurrency market in 2025. They point out that the market has not yet reached its peak based on multiple indicators, and predict that Bitcoin will reach its peak in the third to fourth quarter of next year, with the price possibly ranging from $145,000 to $189,000.
Bitfinex stated in a report released on Monday that the current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and spot accumulation. Historical data shows that "we are in the middle of the cycle", and with the Bitcoin halving occurring in April 2024, the market may reach its peak around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, which is about 450 days after the halving.
The report also analyzes the current market status and future trends based on various indicators, and the analyst wrote:
"Indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and 'Bull/Bear Market Cycle Signals' indicate that we are still in a bull market phase, but far from reaching the peak of frenzy. The Pi Cycle Top and 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle peak between $145,000 and $189,000. From a historical perspective, the gradually decreasing rate of return is moderating the explosive growth we saw in previous Bitcoin cycles."
According to the explanation from CoinGlass, the Pi Cycle Top indicator can be used to indicate when the market is overheated. Based on historical data, when the short-term moving average (the 111-day moving average shown in the image) moves upward and crosses the 350DMA x 2, the Bitcoin price is usually in an overheated stage.
Bitfinex's analysts believe that any price correction in 2025 will be relatively moderate, thanks to the inflow of institutional funds. Furthermore, according to the historical cycle, the year after the halving usually sees the strongest uptrend. The analysts also estimate that Bitcoin will reach a cycle target price of at least $145,000 in the middle of 2025, "with the potential to extend to $200,000 under favorable conditions".
However, the report suggests that Bitcoin may experience volatility in the first quarter of 2025, and advises investors to be wary of overbought signals as Bitcoin approaches the cycle top.
