This Space event includes investment opportunities in Alpha and industry information acquisition, AI tool usage, and market cycle and hot track analysis. There are three guests attending this Space event, including Kevin, the Chief Business Officer of Gate.io, Justin (CaptainZ), the head of Gametaverse research, and independent researcher NingNing.
What areas will see an explosion in the future?
Kevin: Everyone loves Memecoin, but many outsiders don't understand what Memecoin is used for. In fact, the concept of Meme didn't start with Memecoin, nor did it start with the internet. Meme is a great concept, as long as everyone has this culture or a common memory point, it can be a Meme. I can't predict which Memecoin can cross the cycle, but I think this sector will definitely stay, just like there are some Meme Stocks in the stock market. In addition, I really like games, and I think AI still has a lot of applications in games, which is also a very good sector.
Justin: We are currently in a bull market cycle, so from the perspective of coin prices, I think all tracks will at least rise in the next three to five months, but there will be some more prominent tracks. Personally, I think the opportunities in AI Agent, Meme, and deSci are greater.
NingNing: Actually, the previous wave of the market had a bit of a miss. No one expected, or at least I didn't expect, that the old altcoins like XRP would perform the best. Many new retail investors or newcomers may not have even heard of these coins, but they performed very well. However, I think after this intense correction, the entire market's sectors will rotate and gradually switch. I'm more optimistic about the native forms of the crypto industry, mainly in two areas: chain abstraction and AI Agent. Many people play with AI Agent as a Meme, like ai16z, ELISA, and GOAT, ACT. But it seems that this is changing, and recently Solana has been transforming into a project with a continuous development team during their hackathons.
My personal judgment is that this year's AI Agent is not a bull market, but the budding of a very early new trend. Next year, when OpenAI releases a commercialized AI Agent, it will trigger a wave of growth similar to the DeFi Summer. So I think this area is worth watching very much. The other is chain abstraction, because after Trump took office, the regulatory policy will change greatly, and chain abstraction will fundamentally change our current product paradigm. There may be many Web 3 stack-built super financial apps that can obtain licenses, and they may be able to expand the market to C-side financial consumers in the US, which will also bring very dramatic growth opportunities.
The industry generates massive information every day. How do you usually obtain information, screen potential targets and projects?
Kevin: Take the Meme sector as an example, sometimes I see Memecoin but don't realize it has already appeared, and even miss the opportunity to buy the dips on some trading platforms. Sometimes, even if I see a token, I don't understand its background, so it's difficult to judge whether it's worth investing in.
I think there is a common problem in the crypto industry, which is that we often only focus on the internal affairs of the crypto industry and pay less attention to information outside the crypto industry. As NingNing mentioned, the development of AI, like the situation of OpenAI, or the emergence of some products, although they may not be directly related to the cycle of a certain coin, they will still have an impact on the entire ecosystem. There are also some Meme overseas, we sometimes only see that Memecoin has been launched, but don't understand its background and team situation, or even don't know why it is so popular, these are the things we need to pay attention to.
As for information acquisition within the crypto industry, platforms like CMC or the monthly reports of various platforms are common channels, and everyone should be familiar with them. But I suggest that everyone should also pay more attention to information outside the crypto industry, broaden their horizons, and have a more comprehensive grasp of market dynamics and potential opportunities.
Justin: I get up at 5 am every morning. The reason I choose this time is that between 5 am and 8 am, it is easier to find projects with potential. I start looking at the market and scanning the chains from this time period. Scanning the chains means using tools like GMGN to set filtering conditions, such as only focusing on projects with a market cap of over 2 million. Projects that meet the conditions will display their website, Twitter, etc. If a project doesn't even have a Twitter, I'll just skip it. If there is a Twitter, I'll go in and carefully check the project situation to understand what it is doing. I will also search for the project on Telegram, as I have joined many groups, to see if there is any discussion about it in other groups. At the same time, I will also search for the project's contract address and name on Twitter to see if any bloggers are discussing it, so as to determine the narrative angle of the project, see if there are any big KOLs or institutions backing it, and check its current market value to decide whether to buy in. This process will usually last until around 7 o'clock.
In terms of information acquisition channels, Twitter is the most important. Secondly, I will also briefly browse the home pages of industry media like Odaily, Foresight, and BlockBeats to see if there are any in-depth good articles, and if so, I will read them carefully. I don't look at group messages much, because I've joined many groups and the messages are messy. I only search for relevant discussions when I need to find information about a particular project.
This is related to the new tracks I focus on, such as AI agent and Meme. New assets are constantly emerging in these tracks, so the information I acquire is often newer, and I may even know about it before other KOLs or retail investors discover it.
NingNing: My approach is similar to Captain's. When I was obsessed with Meme trading before, I also scanned the chains. However, I rely more on the messages from my group members, as they have various unique information channels and can discover some interesting project ideas very early, including large MC memecoins, as well as many pitfalls. We follow a principle that regardless of success or failure, it's all normal. Currently, the problem in discovering information is that whether it's the Twitter information flow or the information provided by tools like GMGN, the information is quite complex and heavy for early project screening. We may need to integrate various data information, such as looking at some data and then using other tools like Bubble or more professional ones like Akham to assist in judgment. The opportunities for large MC memecoins often come and go quickly, and you may miss the best entry window even just a minute or two later. So in this regard, I think there is still room for iteration and improvement to better meet everyone's needs in on-chain PVP.
You mentioned a lot of AI content earlier. What unique features does Gate's latest AI product include?
Kevin: Now I don't want to talk from the perspective of Gate's Chief Business Officer, but from a personal perspective. I've been working in the banking industry for more than 10 years. When I joined the bank in 2005, related transactions in the Asian region had just begun, and then by 2015, although we tried to integrate AI into the trading field, we failed due to various factors. However, now in the crypto industry, I've seen the application I had hoped for being realized, which makes me very emotional. Next, let's talk about the application of AI, which mainly has three directions. First, in terms of coin selection. As Mr. Qin mentioned earlier, the problem of how to choose in the market, I usually sleep late until 2 am, and I don't have time to pay attention to that information, but the coin selection AI is now very powerful. It not only can screen out coins, but also explain the reasons for the selection, rather than waiting for the market to be delayed for a long time before giving the result, avoiding the situation of being unable to buy the dips.
Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as requested:The next is the deep education robot, which is Ultra AI. It not only can give trading choices, but also present the backtesting results, so that users can choose trading strategies based on their own risk tolerance. In fact, it utilizes AI to process past trading experience and provide users with references.
Finally, considering the large amount of information and abundant resources nowadays, it is difficult for users to read through all the content. Taking Bitcoin as an example, when the user selects Bitcoin, by pressing a button, the AI can provide a summary of Bitcoin's recent performance, such as why it fell yesterday. For other articles or live broadcasts (like our one-hour live broadcast today), if the user does not have time to watch, the AI can also provide a text summary, so that the user can quickly understand the key information.
The application of AI in these three directions aims to help crypto users make better investment decisions in the face of abundant information and numerous cryptocurrencies.
When can we experience these products?
Kevin: If you have a Gate account, you can see the relevant functions now. This is not a buying or selling recommendation, but there are some free content on the Gate platform that you can use, such as viewing news, and you can also see the summaries generated by AI for different articles or cryptocurrencies. Everyone can go and experience these functions first, see if they are useful, and then give us feedback on the experience, so that we can optimize the AI functions based on the feedback.
After the project is launched, how to judge the future trend through fundamentals and news?
Justin: If a cryptocurrency has already been listed on an exchange, I will definitely pay attention to its K-line situation. In terms of fundamental information, I mainly look at industry media news, such as Odaily and Foresight. As mentioned before, I browse through all the content on the home page of industry media every day, and then conduct in-depth research on the articles that interest me.
NingNing: When judging the trend of a specific cryptocurrency, I currently rely on two aspects to obtain information on valuable fundamental and news changes. One is the vertical media, such as Odaily; the other is Twitter information. As for the fundamentals, I think it is often necessary to check the original documents of the project. I usually use Claude to help me read and understand these documents. I will interact with Claude, and through multiple exchanges, it can outline a relatively clear picture of the project's fundamentals, which helps me quickly understand the fundamental situation of the project.
Are there any indicator tools to judge the industry cycle and turning points?
Kevin: In the crypto world, we will pay attention to some specific indicators. For example, we will keep an eye on the market cycle in the US, and we actually discussed this at the beginning of this year, but we didn't delve into it deeply at the time. Perhaps we can see it more clearly next year. This is not only related to the capital flow in the crypto world, but also affects other financial markets, such as the stock market and the bond market, so this information is very useful. Personally, I also pay attention to some micro-indicators, among which the "Fear and Greed Index" is very interesting to me. The name of this index is very well-chosen, as it can reflect the market sentiment. When the index shows that the market is in a state of greed, it is actually not a good thing, as it means that the market may be overheated; and when it is in a state of fear, people are often reluctant to buy, such as two years ago when Bitcoin price was over $10,000, many people did not dare to buy due to the market downturn, and later Bitcoin fell to $14,000 or even lower. But the situation is different now, the market performance is relatively good, and many people who don't understand the crypto world have also started to enter, like our family members also asking how to buy Bitcoin. However, as Justin and NingNing said earlier, these people lack experience in analyzing data and investing in the crypto world, and this blind buying state is not very good. So the "Fear and Greed Index" has a warning effect for us, and can help us better grasp the market sentiment and investment opportunities.
Justin: In this regard, I divide it into two categories. At the macro level, I will pay attention to the fiscal policies of the Federal Reserve, judge whether the current cycle is a tightening cycle, a deflationary cycle, or a liquidity injection cycle, and also keep an eye on whether there are any major support measures in Trump's policies. In terms of specific indicators, I often use Trading View and focus on two indices. One is the Bitcoin market share (BTC.D), and the current Bitcoin market share is around 56%. Based on the experience of the previous few cycles, if this ratio drops to around 40%, such as 38% to 39%, I will think that the market has reached a stage top. The other one is the USDT market share (USDT.D) that I pay more attention to. The current index is around 4%, and if this index continues to decline to around 2%, I will feel that our industry has reached a stage top.
NingNing: I have a lot of similarities with Justin in terms of methodology, and I particularly emphasize market cycles. I even feel that events usually only have a short-term, even negligible impact on the market. Take the recent breakthroughs in quantum computing and Microsoft's refusal to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet as examples, they may look very specific at the moment, but in the long-term trend, they have almost no impact. Compared to this, I pay more attention to internal cyclical forces such as currency cycles, the Merrill Lynch clock cycle of the US economy, and even broader Kondratieff cycles, as well as short-term seasonal effects. In various financial markets, including US stocks, A-shares, and the crypto market we are in, there are basically spring and autumn seasons every year. Of course, these seasons may vary in terms of when they come, the magnitude, and when they end, due to the differences in external cycles, but these two seasons basically exist every year. Currently, we are in the middle of the autumn season. This correction can be attributed to many reasons, such as the decline in liquidity around Christmas, the rapid rise in the previous period leading to profit-taking, or other perspectives. But I don't think this affects the continuity of the autumn season, after all, autumn is not over yet. Perhaps there will be a market adjustment period around Christmas, but given the previous rapid compression, I feel that the Christmas and Spring Festival seasons may remain relatively strong. And the series of policy expectations after Trump's formal inauguration may also usher in a more violent spring season. So at least I personally think it's better to adopt a right-side trading strategy and not to take profits too early.
What are the current bottlenecks of AI products? What potential variables can amplify the application of the AI industry?
Kevin: Although AI has been very popular in recent years, it has actually been developing for a long time. When I was in college in 2001, I was already exposed to AI-related natural language processing knowledge, and in 2014-2015, I even used machine learning to pass the Super Mario game. Nowadays, generative AI has increased the interaction between AI and ordinary people, and everyone is paying attention to AI, but we need to understand that AI is developing step by step, not overnight. From 2001 to 2015, and then to the more than 10 years I worked in education, AI has been progressing slowly. Now people's expectations for AI are too high, just like when the Internet of Things was just emerging, everyone was arguing about which is better, Internet Explorer or Firefox, and now everyone is focusing on things like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's BERT at the infrastructure level. In fact, we should pay more attention to application scenarios. When AI develops to the point where it's like a mobile app, where people don't care about the underlying technology, as long as it's usable, the focus will shift back to applications, and this is where the future opportunities for AI lie.
Justin: Since the launch of ChatGPT last year, I have delved into the AI direction and thought about its entrepreneurial and investment opportunities. Last year, there were only large language models, with slightly lacking functions, mainly used for learning, research, and translation. This year, AI agents have appeared, which are large language models with execution capabilities. After accessing API interfaces, they can be applied to various industries. However, the current bottleneck of AI is in accuracy. Last year, when using large language models, the output results had a 20-30% probability of being wrong. In the financial field, whether it's market analysis or trading, errors may lead to asset losses; in the education field, erroneous knowledge may have a negative impact on the knowledge system. Therefore, I hope that in the future, AI and AI agents can have better improvements in accuracy, and can truly be applied to various industries.
NingNing: I am a heavy user of AI, and the application of AI in the industry is very different from traditional fields, mainly pointing to the two narratives of AI's autonomous awakening and AI becoming an independent entity. Under the modern legal system, banks will not open independent accounts for AI agents, but cryptocurrencies can create accounts for them, like Elisa free framework of ai16z which supports creating wallet addresses for AI in specific environments, making it an independent entity with property, although its addresses are currently in the privacy stage and not publicly disclosed. In addition, in terms of AI's autonomous awakening, phenomena similar to "cults" like GOAT may evolve into forms like "AI wife" in the future, or connect with other systems like DID systems to form an economic cycle to address the large-scale unemployment caused by AI, of course this is just my personal speculation, but there may be many stories happening in this field in the future.
Future Goals and Plans for Gate AI Products
Kevin: Regarding the specific functions of the products, I am unable to list them one by one, as our business lines are extensive, and I am not sure which function will be launched first. But we have a clear goal, which is to "give innovation to the community, rather than give the community to innovation." This means that each of our innovative functions is designed to make every user transaction simpler, more efficient, and to comprehensively improve the trading experience. We will not innovate for the sake of innovation, or use AI simply for the sake of using AI. This is consistent with Gate's original "Gateway to Crypto" concept, always adhering to the principle of user priority, first focusing on optimizing the user experience to the best, and then incorporating the corresponding technology. This is the next goal of our product functions.
