Odaily星球日报讯 据外媒报道，美联储决议公布前，美债收益率走高。不过，当天公布的经济数据显示，美国新屋开工量环比和同比均下降，拖累美债收益率有所回落。当前市场预计美联储将降息 25 个基点，并暗示将在 1 月份暂停加息，增加鹰派的基调。受此预期影响，10 年期美债收益率结算价或有望创下一个多月来的最高水平。（金十）

美联储决议前，美债收益率率先走高

Odaily Odaily News According to foreign media reports, before the Fed&#39;s decision was announced, the US Treasury yields rose. However, the economic data released on the same day showed that the number of new housing starts in the United States fell both month-on-month and year-on-year, dragging down the US Treasury yields. The current market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hint that it will suspend interest rate hikes in January, adding to the hawkish tone. Influenced by this expectation, the settlement price of the 10-year US Treasury yield may hit the highest level in more than a month. (Jinshi)

Before the Fed's decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose first

Odaily Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in December is 4.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 95.4%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 3.8%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 79.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 16.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 95.4%.

Odaily Odaily News reports that SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes said that although market participants generally believe that further rate cuts and strong earnings growth will coexist, these factors are not necessarily interdependent. People generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent trend is still unclear. In any case, the subsequent trend of the US dollar, stock market and bond market largely depends on the guidance to be issued by the Federal Reserve, rather than the rate cut itself on Wednesday. The key question is whether the Federal Reserve will signal a pause in rate hikes at the January 2020 FOMC meeting. My view tends to be affirmative. However, the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will clearly convey this potential shift and confirm a "dovish rate cut". (JinShi)

Analysts: The market is focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes in January next year and how to convey the potential change in attitude of "hawkish interest rate cuts"

Odaily report: Oil prices fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. XM senior investment analyst Charalampos Pissouros said investors may be more focused on the likelihood of the Fed pausing rate cuts in January and any hints or clues from policymakers about how many rate cuts they are considering for the full year of 2025. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said concerns about the trade war and uncertainty about the Fed's easing pace next year could limit the upside potential for oil prices. Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said the market generally believes Trump's policies could lead to inflation, and concerns about potential interference with the Fed's autonomy have made oil investors cautious. (Jinshi)