Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”数据，当前市场认为美联储今晚（19 日凌晨 3 点）宣布降息 25 个基点的概率为 98.8%，维持利率在 4.5%-4.75%不变的概率仅为 1.2%。

利率决议公布前，市场认为美联储将宣布降息25个基点的概率为98.8%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot; data, the current market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point interest rate cut tonight (3 a.m. on the 19th) is 98.8%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.5%-4.75% is only 1.2%.

Before the interest rate decision was announced, the market believed that the probability that the Fed would announce a 25 basis point rate cut was 98.8%.

The Wall Street strategist and president of research firm Yardeni Research, Ed Yardeni, said that the general expectation is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but this may be a bad idea.

"One of the things we've heard recently from Fed Chairman Powell is that 'the economy is strong, we don't need to rush to cut rates.' If that's the case, then why do something this week?" Yardeni asked on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday morning.

Federal funds futures are forecasting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again...

Wall Street strategist: The Fed should not cut interest rates this week, otherwise there will be a market bubble

Odaily Odaily News reports that SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes said that although market participants generally believe that further rate cuts and strong earnings growth will coexist, these factors are not necessarily interdependent. People generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent trend is still unclear. In any case, the subsequent trend of the US dollar, stock market and bond market largely depends on the guidance to be issued by the Federal Reserve, rather than the rate cut itself on Wednesday. The key question is whether the Federal Reserve will signal a pause in rate hikes at the January 2020 FOMC meeting. My view tends to be affirmative. However, the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will clearly convey this potential shift and confirm a "dovish rate cut". (JinShi)

Analysts: The market is focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes in January next year and how to convey the potential change in attitude of "hawkish interest rate cuts"

Odaily reported that QCP Capital posted on its official Telegram channel stating: "The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2024 will be held tonight. Although the holiday season is in full swing, we see few reasons to celebrate. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in this meeting and release the final dot plot of the year. We expect tonight's statement and dot plot to have a slightly hawkish tone, reflecting US inflation stabilizing above the Fed's 2% target and a strong labor market. The statement is expected to refrain from committing to a path of rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing the difficulty of accelerating rate cuts. Meanwhile, the dot plot is expected to convey three rate cuts in 2025. While we don't believe the Fed meeting will have a major impact, market liquidity has been gradually decreasing across the board. This could lead to price volatility and potentially trigger large-scale liquidations. The technical outlook for <BTC> is also cautious, as <BTC> has formed a bearish evening star pattern on the daily timeframe and is showing a bearish divergence. If a decline occurs, do not be forced to close positions. With 2025 expected to be a potential crypto bull market year, especially under a Trump presidency, maintaining the status quo may be beneficial."