Odaily星球日报讯 美联储点阵图显示，2025 年预计将降息两次。（9 月预计为四次）（金十）

美联储点阵图显示2025年预计将降息两次

Odaily Odaily News: The Fed&#39;s dot plot shows that interest rates are expected to be cut twice in 2025. (Four times are expected in September) (Jinshi)

Fed's dot plot shows two rate cuts expected in 2025

Odaily reports that according to a CNBC survey in December, respondents are confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, but they are not sure whether it should. 93% of people believe the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, only 63% believe this is what the Fed should do. Respondents expect two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by 2025, lower than the three cuts expected in the previous survey. By this time next year, the federal funds rate will have fallen to 3.8%, and by the end of 2026, it will have fallen to 3.4%, slightly higher than the average neutral rate. A huge unknown is the fiscal policy of the new administration. The survey shows that the prospect of President-elect Trump's tariffs and potential deportation of immigrants has dampened some people's upside forecasts for the economy. Economist Robert Fry said he has never been so uncertain about the inflation outlook. Trump has provided us with a combination of factors that could raise inflation (tariffs, tax cuts) and lower inflation (deregulation, spending cuts). Who knows what we'll end up with?

CNBC survey: 93% of respondents believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

According to the news from Mars Finance, AJ Bell's investment director Russ Mould: He agrees with the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this meeting. However, the Federal Reserve's economic outlook may show that there will only be two rate cuts next year. After a little over a week of Trump's inauguration next month, the Federal Reserve will hold another meeting, and whether the possibility of a rate cut in January has been completely ruled out? I wouldn't say so. The Federal Reserve is known for being "data-dependent" and is committed to its dual mandate of inflation and employment. But behind Powell, the huge federal deficit means $1 trillion in annual interest payments, which is putting pressure on U.S. economic growth. If interest rates can be lowered to reduce interest payments, this would be beneficial for the United States, as well as the president-elect Trump.

Analysts: Given the huge federal deficit, the possibility of a January rate cut has not been completely ruled out

Odaily Odaily News reports that the 2-year and 5-year US Treasury yields fell to daily lows, with the yield curve steepening. (<金十>)