Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
The current atmosphere seems quite interesting. Three days ago, everyone was enthusiastically discussing the bull market, but now, three days later, many people have started to turn bearish! So some friends have started to complain: "If only I had sold a few days ago, if only I hadn't bought a few days ago, if only..."
In fact, from the time we started producing content to now, we have new friends following Talk Li Talk Outside every day, and over a long period of time, we have received many "eternal topic" comments, most of which are basically asking about prices, the most common being when the market top will appear, what the top price will be, when the market bottom will appear, and how high a certain token can rise, and so on - questions with a sense of certainty.
It is precisely because there are a large number of people who always hope to find or inquire about a 100% certain answer that there are various analysts, lead-up teachers and the like on the internet who are being followed and chased by more and more people. But we still hold the same view: the wallet is yours, and you should always be responsible for your own investments, no matter what those lead-up teachers or eternal profit masters say. You need to understand that all their statements are merely probabilistic, and no one can predict the market top or bottom 100% accurately.
As Hui Sister said in the group yesterday: There is no one in this world who can buy the dips and sell at the top, if there were, it would be either God or a pig slaughterhouse. As shown in the following figure.
And when you still decide to base your investment decisions on seeking a 100% certain answer from others, then that may be the beginning of you losing money in the bull market. You may be lucky and do well at the start, but this is more likely just because you happened to catch a stage of the bull market, and most people with this kind of behavior will ultimately end up losing their profits or even their principal.
In addition, for most people, greed also seems to be a rather fatal problem in investing, such as:
- When the market is rising, they often don't consider locking in some profits according to their plan, and even continue to blindly chase the highs until they have consumed all their principal.
- When the market is falling, they often panic and dump (or even take losses on) their positions. At the same time, they are unwilling to accept it, and continue to blindly seek other targets to "buy the dips", hoping to quickly recover their losses or turn the situation around.
In this field, many people always treat speculation as investment, and hope to accumulate wealth in an extremely short period of time, without treating making money as a long-term plan or strategy. There are even people who will leave messages saying: this field is just air and a scam, including BTC, which is also a scam. Didn't I come in for the speculation and dream of getting rich quick? The kind of long-term investment philosophy you talk about is completely unreliable.
Of course, how one sees it, how one thinks, and then how one plans to act, these are the freedom of each individual, so we will not argue with anyone about this, nor will we try to prove anything.
We often hear a saying: history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Especially in the investment market, if you have experienced 2-3 cycles, you should also have a sense of empathy.
At this stage, for many newcomers, the bull market has just begun, but for the old "cabbage" who has been investing for more than two years, they are more concerned about how to reasonably batch out. Of course, there are also some old "cabbages" or analysts whose views are more aggressive, and they still believe that the bull market of this cycle has just begun, and that BTC at $100,000 is just the starting point, and they also believe that there will be more than 100 million new "cabbages" entering the market next year to take over...
The market is often like this, a place of free speech, and also a place full of all kinds of noise. The so-called market money-making opportunities are constantly circulating among various opinions and noises.
In the previous article on the topic of the top, we have helped everyone sort out and summarize the 15 reference indicators for escaping the BTC bull market top from the perspective of data. Today, we will use this topic to do some sorting from the perspective of "intuitive feeling", and see how to "escape the top" in the bull market "by feeling".
1. Discover that your friends are starting to discuss cryptocurrencies
Remember in a previous article of Talk Li Talk Outside, we mentioned that there are several fairly obvious personal experiences in the mid-to-late stage of a bull market, such as people who have never discussed cryptocurrencies before also start talking about cryptocurrencies in their circles, and many celebrities outside the circle also start discussing cryptocurrencies intensively on social platforms.
This is actually quite understandable, because as the market trend develops, after BTC breaks through new historical highs and creates some milestones, many mainstream media will report on it, and with the help of some celebrities, this will make more people outside the circle pay attention to this field again.
Therefore, if you find that people are starting to discuss cryptocurrencies when you are shopping or hanging out in cafes, or if you find that your circle of friends is starting to discuss cryptocurrencies, especially those colleagues, relatives, and old friends who have never discussed cryptocurrencies before, even contacting you to consult about downloading exchanges or what coins to buy, then this may be the time for you to consider partially cashing out.
2. Discover that the vast majority of people are actively bullish
During the last bear market, even if we shouted at the top of our lungs when BTC was around $20,000, it was useless, because in that sentiment, most people still continued to be bearish.
On the contrary, in a bull market, when BTC successfully breaks through new historical highs and reaches the $100,000 mark, even if we start to warn of risks, but the mood is high and many analysts also tell you that it will continue to rise to $200,000 or even $300,000 next year, most people believe it.
Of course, this sentiment not only applies to BTC, but also to all cryptocurrencies. Once you find that everyone on social platforms and various communities is in a high mood, even rushing to enter a certain target, then you should be careful, as this may mean that the stage-wise uptrend is about to come to an end.
3. Discover that traditional mainstream media/programs start to report extensively
Due to the special nature of the crypto market, in many places, those traditional mainstream media rarely do extensive reporting.
If you find that those mainstream media that have never reported on cryptocurrencies before have started to do continuous reporting, or if some traditional TV programs have also started to mention cryptocurrencies, then this may mean that we are approaching the late stage of the cyclical bull market.
Because with the increase in exposure and influence, the market will experience FOMO, and most people will also start to be actively bullish. But this sentiment will have a peak, and once the bullish sentiment stops or can no longer drive the market price to rise, then even if the fundamentals are still there, the market is most likely to experience a stage-wise decline.
Followin' the stage-wise decline, based on past experience, various media and KOLs may continue to generate a large amount of bearish information to maintain traffic, which will lead to a stage-wise slow decline turning into a rapid decline, at which point most people will no longer pay attention to the fundamentals.
4. Discover that the people around you are starting to show off their wealth or want to make you rich
I've experienced this a few times. For example, during the last bull market, a friend who rarely posted on social media started posting about their luxury watch and even their new car. I just casually liked one of the posts, and then the other party actively chatted with me and asked if I understood cryptocurrency. I said I didn't understand it at all, and then they said they could take me to buy coins and get rich, and they said they had already quit their job and planned to go all-in on cryptocurrency. However, I later declined the offer on the grounds that I didn't have money to invest.
5. Discover that various bloggers are becoming more active, and many analysts are also emerging
Recently, I've also spent time searching and observing. For example, many public account holders seem to have just registered and opened this year, and these bloggers are quite active. At the same time, various self-proclaimed analysts have also become highly active on the internet and in various communities, attracting people's attention through various ways of showing off their high-yield trades.
6. Discover that some old projects are extracting liquidity
During a bull market, when the market sentiment reaches a certain level, even those old projects that seem to have little upside space can start to rise and absorb market liquidity. When this happens, we should also pay more attention, because the rise of such projects often also means that we are experiencing the tail end of the bull market stage.
The article source is: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nqrDPpvjkfDMC1p6sNuA8Q
