Odaily星球日报讯 美联储青睐的通胀指标 11 月表现温和，这是政策制定者在寻求 2025 年进一步降息的正确方向上迈出的一步。这些数据应有助于缓解美联储官员对通胀前景的担忧。美联储官员本周公布了最新预测，显示 2025 年物价和利率将较高。这些新的预测引发了美股抛售，因为投资者已经消化了政策收紧的预期。有关物价的细节显示出普遍的通胀放缓。核心服务价格（一个受到密切关注的类别，不包括住房和能源）环比上涨 0.2%，为 8 月以来的最低水平。核心商品价格（不包括食品和能源）三个月来首次下降。（金十）

美联储青睐指标显示物价压力放缓，2025年降息预期升温

Odaily Odaily: The Federal Reserve&#39;s preferred inflation measure was mild in November, a step in the right direction for policymakers to seek further interest rate cuts in 2025. The data should help ease Federal Reserve officials&#39; concerns about the inflation outlook. Federal Reserve officials released updated forecasts this week showing higher prices and interest rates in 2025. These new forecasts triggered a sell-off in U.S. stocks as investors have digested expectations of tighter policy. Details on prices show a broad slowdown in inflation. Core service prices (a closely watched category that excludes housing and energy) rose 0.2% month-on-month, the lowest level since August. Core commodity prices (excluding food and energy) fell for the first time in three months. (Jinshi)

Fed's preferred indicator shows slowing price pressures, expectations of a rate cut in 2025 rise

Bitunix analysts pointed out that there was a significant correction in the cryptocurrency market after the Federal Reserve’s December 2024 interest rate decision. The Fed has signaled that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow in 2025, with only two rate cuts possible throughout the year. Chairman Powell emphasized after the meeting that inflation is still above the 2% target and the Fed will prudently adjust policies based on economic data. It may take one to two years to achieve the target.
On the same day, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of US$671.9M, causing the price of Bitcoin to plummet nearly 10% in a single day. Although President-elect Trump proposed to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin and may use confiscated Bitcoin as a reserve asset, Fed Powell stated that he has no intention of holding Bitcoin and that relevant policies should be decided by Congress. This comment cooled the market's expectations for the policy, and the cryptocurrency market immediately experienced fluctuations.
In addition, the U.S. stock market and bond market fell simultaneously after the interest rate decision. Investors are worried that in a high inflation environment, the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates, which will put pressure on economic growth. U.S. economic forecasts for 2025 show that GDP growth may slow to 2.1%, core PCE inflation may be 2.5%, while the labor market remains solid.
Bitunix analysts suggest that against the backdrop of increased policy and market uncertainty, investors need to pay close attention to regulatory developments and economic data and adopt flexible strategies to respond to market fluctuations.

Bitunix analyst opinion: Investors need to pay close attention to regulatory developments and economic data, and adopt flexible strategies to respond to market fluctuations

According to SoSoValue, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but hawkish expectations caused market panic, with the VIX index rising to the highest level since the Bank of Japan's rate hike in August. The FOMC meeting on December 18 lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%-4.50%, and reduced the expected number of rate cuts next year from four to two, while raising the core PCE inflation rate and GDP growth rate forecasts. Analysts pointed out that the market overreacted to the Federal Reserve's signals, the US dollar strengthened significantly, and risk assets generally retreated, but the fundamentals of the US economy remained strong...

SoSoValue: The market overreacted to the Fed's signals, and risk assets generally pulled back, but the fundamentals remained unchanged

Odaily reports that the Fed's dot plot shows that among the 19 officials, 1 official believes there should be no rate cut in 2025, 3 officials believe there should be a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, 10 officials believe there should be a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, 3 officials believe there should be a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut in 2025, 1 official believes there should be a cumulative 100 basis point rate cut in 2025, and 1 official believes there should be a cumulative 125 basis point rate cut in 2025. (<金十>)