Author: Haotian
It is possible that everyone feels that this round of AI Agent narrative advancement is very similar to the Rune track since 2023, not completely equivalent, but it makes a lot of sense. I think we can at least transplant the historical experience of the Rune track to the AI Agent track, and sort out some potential development and evolution logic and investment opportunities:
-The beginning of the "asset issuance" narrative bubble
Undoubtedly, whether it is the Rune, AI Agent or the previous NFT track, the narrative evolution is driven by the FOMO emotion of "asset issuance", after all, it is too early, no one can figure out what the future use of these rapidly circulating tokens will be, but perhaps because of this, information asymmetry will generate a potential "wealth effect". This will drive the FOMO emotion to spread like a snowball, leading to a "bubble" situation where more and more meaningless tokens are born as more people seek the secret to wealth. This is actually hard to avoid, and is in fact the engine that drives the emergence of bull markets.
For example, the initial hype of the Rune track was BRC20, apart from the novelty and fun, the core selling point was the scarcity hype of the "first is first" attribute, with the logic of competing for the first and second place narrative creators. The AI Agent is no exception, initially hyping the AI interactive dialogue AI Agent, with the same MEME attributes such as Goat, act, and fartcoin, and a similar script, with the MEME war around the competition for the first and second place continuing for a long time, and it is still unknown whether the dust has settled.
Of course, the asset issuance narrative of the AI Agent is much stronger than that of the Rune, at least with some utility application attributes, nothing more than how to enrich the application scenarios such as dialogue interaction, image and text generation, and chain transaction, and whether a single application scenario can support the FDV of hundreds of millions.
But what I want to remind you is that AI Agent has natural application attributes, so the process of application maturity in the track is also a process of constantly stripping away the MEME-ization. If you have to choose MEME, just find the one that best represents the cultural attribution of the AI Agent.
-The "framework standard" competition internal struggle drama
When the MEME-ized pure financial nihilism "asset issuance" narrative evolves to a certain stage, it will be transformed into a technology-empowered landing narrative, and a longer cycle of competition will be launched around the differences in technical standards and framework protocols.
Looking back at the appearance of ARC20, SRC20, DRC20, Runes protocol and other public chain Rune engraving pressure tests, isn't it very similar to the current framework and standard chaos between ELIZA, ARC, Virtual, Vvaifu, zerobro, Griffain, and Swarms?
In this process, the track's hotspots will continue to be refreshed, and the same capital will keep rotating, and communities around technology will also emerge, and even some quarrels and verbal battles will not be lacking.
The existence of the technical chaos is mainly because at this stage, it is difficult for the technology to prove its superiority and inferiority, and the judgment based on information such as the number of Github repo forks, star counts, the background of the initiators, and the mysterious warehouse operators' participation, cannot resist the huge fluctuations of the projects, because you don't know which information is mixed with impurities.
However, since it is an internal struggle of technical superiority standards, technical quality must occupy the "first place". In the process of sorting and analyzing the technical framework, characteristics and advantages of new projects, I am also a kind of "technical screening", although it may not be accurate, but at least it can avoid being misled by some MEME coins disguised as technology. The logic is simple, the threshold for technology projects to fake is not low, the challenge is the aesthetic preferences of the entire developer community, and it is impossible to try to harvest with a fancy website.
In general, the market manifestation of this stage is "hot spot rotation", mixed with various scam projects, but fortunately, the projects that can attract attention by selling technical quality are generally not bad. Of course, don't FOMO because you missed a new project, FUD will definitely exist (the fate of speed reading), and there will definitely be opportunities to get on board in the process of huge fluctuations. Even if you miss it, you have to believe that there will always be a better one than it. In this stage, playing coins with the mentality of a scumbag is definitely not wrong.
There's no help for it, even the most perfect framework standard design is just an idea at the beginning, no different from the ICO era of fundraising through white papers. The best logic is to compete in the ability to digest and understand information, believe that the market is still innovating and iterating, and believe that there will always be better technical frameworks.
As long as you select a project with good quality, continuous iterative progress, and a reasonable MCAP, and then just wait patiently for the gift of time.
-The "chain integration" fusion stage of AI Agent
The Build around the AI Agent technical standard framework is the prerequisite for the "chain integration" of the AI Agent, a key issue is that ELIZA, ARC, Swarms and other framework standards are all for the purpose of quickly deploying AI Agent, building powerful AI Agent performance, and then allowing AI Agent to better serve people. Following this logic, it will be found that the AI Agent in the web3 field cannot just stay at the level of text and image interaction, is it just for entertainment?
If the AI Agent wants to lock in the native characteristics of Crypto, it must embrace the "transaction characteristics". How to fully integrate the AI Agent's automated indexing of knowledge, information processing, and optimal decision-making capabilities with the automation and composable calling features of on-chain smart contracts is the vision that the AI Agent needs to achieve in order to integrate with the blockchain.
Moreover, the AI Agent itself has problems such as memory storage and multi-modal interaction resource optimization and trusted interaction, which also need to rely on the open, transparent, and decentralized characteristics of the blockchain to complete. This does not include the benefits brought by the Tokenomics incentive feature. Therefore, it can be said that the AI Agent will definitely be "chain-integrated".
Recalling that after several waves of Rune asset issuance narratives, the market finally moved to the narrative of VC and developers successively deploying BTC layer2 infra to seek value application landing.
The AI Agent will be the same, after experiencing a long period of asset issuance PVP and framework standard chaos, there will be a large number of old infra chains embracing the AI Agent, and some infra services specifically for the AI Agent will also be born. At that time, decentralized AI will truly become a DeFi Summer-level track.
As a small investor, you must be very anxious, is it going to let the retail investors be cannon fodder in the bubble narrative, and finally let the VC reap the industry's fruits? In fact, this is not the case, because the MEME-first, community-building Build path of the AI Agent and the past logic of VC providing phased investment for the project and then delivering the expected TGE to the market are completely different.
VC will definitely enter the field in a big way, but they may change the way of playing. Perhaps the way of MEME coins taking the lead and then subsequent technology application empowerment will become the new normal of Tokenomics.
