Author: CoinGecko
Translator: Bai Hua Blockchain
As we enter 2025, looking back at 2024, the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant transformation and development. The strong growth of BTC and the rise of Altcoins have led to rapid evolution of the entire industry. Let's delve into the key trends of 2024 and look ahead to the market dynamics of 2025.
1. Key Trends in 2024: BTC and Altcoins
1) BTC Halving Triggering a Bull Market
In 2024, the BTC halving event once again became the catalyst for a bull market, with the BTC price soaring by 146%, delivering an impressive performance. The halving event occurs approximately every four years, halving the rewards miners receive for verifying transactions on the platform. The reduction in new BTC supply often triggers significant market volatility due to this scarcity.
Looking back at history, BTC prices typically experience significant growth after each halving. For example, after the 2016 halving, BTC price surged from $650 to $20,000 in just over a year. Similarly, after the 2020 halving, BTC rose from around $8,000 to a peak of $69,000 in 2021.
2) Approval of BTC and ETH ETFs
In 2024, the approval of BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs became a milestone event for the cryptocurrency market, significantly driving institutional participation. The long-awaited approval of spot BTC ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally became a reality, allowing traditional investors to access BTC within a regulated and convenient framework. This approval led to a significant influx of institutional capital, causing the BTC price to rise significantly after the announcement.
Similarly, the approval of the ETH ETF also elevated the status of ETH as an important investment asset. With the SEC's approval of the spot ETH ETF, traditional financial institutions were able to include ETH in their investment portfolios, further consolidating ETH's market position as the second-largest cryptocurrency globally.
The latest data shows that institutional investors currently hold around 20% of all BTC ETFs traded in the U.S. While the institutional adoption rate of BlackRock's iShares BTC Trust ETF (IBIT) is below the average at 18.38%, it leads in terms of total BTC holdings, with over 71,000 BTC. Grayscale's GBTC follows closely, with institutions holding 44,707.89 BTC, accounting for 20.25% of its shareholders; Fidelity's FBTC ranks third, with institutions holding 44,623.23 BTC, representing 24.14% of its holdings.
ARK 21Shares' ARKB stands out in terms of institutional adoption, with 32.8% of its shares held by asset managers, equivalent to 17,166 BTC. In contrast, Grayscale's BTC Mini Trust has the lowest institutional participation at 1.52%, while CoinShares Valkyrie ETF (BRRRR) ranks the smallest in terms of institutional BTC holdings, with only 451.26 BTC.
Leaked information suggests that BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is in negotiations to acquire a stake in the "king" of BTC spot ETFs.
These approvals have paved the way for future ETF applications for other cryptocurrencies. Currently, the SEC is reviewing over 10 ETF applications, including assets such as Solana (SOL) and XRP, indicating a growing institutional interest in a wider range of digital assets. These developments may drive further adoption and price momentum across the cryptocurrency market.
3) Trump's Victory in the Presidential Election
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 election proved to be a game-changer for the cryptocurrency market. Trump's pro-crypto stance and his public discussion of using BTC as a potential tool to repay U.S. debt significantly boosted market confidence. This bold vision aligned with his broader policy agenda of supporting business and deregulation, inspiring optimism among traders and institutional investors.
Following his electoral victory, BTC breached the $100,000 mark. Investors expect that the Trump administration will adopt crypto-friendly policies, driving further adoption and fostering innovation in the blockchain space. His victory also sparked discussions about integrating cryptocurrencies into a broader economic framework, creating a favorable environment for the thriving of digital assets.
2. Key Events to Watch in 2025
1) BTC as a Global Economic Policy Tool
One of the most notable developments is the discussion around using BTC as a tool to repay U.S. debt. This bold idea, first proposed during Trump's campaign, has gained traction and attracted global attention. Trump has also expressed support for the creation of a "strategic BTC reserve" similar to the Federal Reserve's current gold reserves. This reserve could serve as an alternative asset to address sovereign debt challenges, demonstrating BTC's potential as a legitimate reserve asset.
The U.S. sovereign debt crisis, driven by record-high borrowing and persistent fiscal imbalances, has prompted policymakers to explore unconventional solutions. Supporters argue that holding BTC as a reserve can hedge against inflation and diversify the nation's financial toolbox, allowing debt repayment without devaluing the U.S. dollar.
At the national level, following El Salvador's pioneering initiative, countries like Tonga, Paraguay, and Panama are considering adopting BTC as legal tender. Driven by economic opportunities, financial inclusion, and remittance efficiency, these countries aim to leverage the potential of cryptocurrencies to modernize their financial systems and attract global investment.
Furthermore, CZ, the founder of BN, stated that the creation of a strategic BTC reserve by China is inevitable. He noted that while China's crypto policies are unpredictable, the country is capable of making swift decisions in this domain. CZ emphasized that if other countries start building BTC reserves, China may follow suit to maintain its leading position in the global financial competition.
Large companies like Amazon and Microsoft are also receiving shareholder inquiries about allocating a portion of their corporate reserves to BTC. Although Microsoft's shareholders voted against including BTC on the balance sheet based on the board's recommendation, their engagement in these discussions signals a shift in the approach of major corporations towards exploring potential BTC use cases, laying the groundwork for broader adoption in the coming years.
2) Approval of Other Cryptocurrency ETFs
Building on the success of BTC and ETH ETFs, 2025 may become a turning point for the approval of other cryptocurrency ETFs, including Solana (SOL) and XRP. Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) previously rejected the Solana ETF application, it is still reviewing over 10 applications, indicating a sustained interest in expanding crypto-based investment options.
This ongoing review leaves room for optimism, as market maturity and regulatory clarity may pave the way for approvals, enhancing market liquidity and investor confidence.
3) Widespread Adoption of Real-World Assets (RWA) Tokenization
The trend of tokenizing Real-World Assets (RWA) is expected to accelerate by 2025, fundamentally transforming the interaction between traditional finance and blockchain technology. Real estate, commodities, and even art are being converted into blockchain-based Tokens, enabling fragmented ownership and broader accessibility.
According to CoinGecko data, tokenization has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars in previously illiquid assets, allowing them to be traded within the crypto ecosystem. This transition bridges the gap between traditional and digital finance, providing investors with new diversification channels and driving innovation across industries.
4) The End of the Halving Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin's halving cycles have typically led to prolonged price increases, often lasting around a year (approximately 365 days). This trend suggests that the first quarter of 2025 will be dominated by the residual effects of the 2024 halving event, driving market optimism and price appreciation. The halving reduces miner rewards, creating supply scarcity and increased demand, which is favorable for Bitcoin's growth. This effect is expected to continue until April 2025, providing ample opportunities for investors and traders.
3. 2025 Forecast: The Outlook for the Crypto Market
1) Bitcoin Forecast
Building on the strong momentum in 2024 and considering the key events expected in 2025, the growth trajectory of Bitcoin looks very promising. Logarithmic analysis of Bitcoin's monthly chart shows it moving steadily within an ascending channel. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching a critical pivot point within this channel, similar to past bull market cycles.
The optimistic forecast suggests that Bitcoin could reach the upper boundary of this channel, reflecting a potential 154% increase in value. This trend is consistent with historical post-halving movements, in which case Bitcoin's price could reach $250,000, further solidifying its position as the leader of the crypto market.
2) Total Crypto Market Cap Forecast
The total crypto market capitalization is displaying strong bullish momentum, currently in an ascending wedge pattern. Historically, bull market cycles typically target the upper boundary of this structure. With the current rebound from the downtrend line, the upper boundary is projected to be $3.4 trillion, representing a potential 270% growth.
3) Forecast for Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Cryptocurrencies
Meanwhile, the total market cap excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies has formed a classic "cup and handle" pattern on the monthly chart. This market is currently testing the $370 billion resistance level. If this key level is breached, it could trigger a 317% surge, with a potential target of $1.6 trillion, signaling the start of a strong Altcoin season.
4. Conclusion
The crypto market is poised for significant growth in 2025, driven by key milestones in 2024, such as Bitcoin's halving rebound, ETF approvals, and Trump's pro-crypto policies. With the potential integration of Bitcoin into the economic framework, increased Altcoin adoption, and the tokenization of Real-World Assets, the market is at the forefront of innovation and expansion. Despite regulatory challenges, the outlook remains optimistic, with Bitcoin potentially reaching new highs and the crypto ecosystem reshaping traditional finance.
This article is for reference only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Please note that the crypto market is highly volatile, and thorough research is advised before any investment.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/5598.html
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/learn/crypto-2025-what-lies-ahead-after-2024-milestones
