Odaily星球日报讯 汇丰银行表示，仍预计美联储 2025 年将降息 75 个基点。（金十）

汇丰银行：仍预计美联储2025年将降息75个基点

Odaily Odaily News HSBC said it still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025. (Jinshi)

HSBC: Still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 91.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.6%.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 91.4%.

Odaily reported that this week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the "pivot" long expected by the market, with the central bank's statement and updates to economic forecasts having a huge impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, and US Treasury yields have risen in response. Earlier this week, Bitcoin fell from its all-time high, and on Friday, European Bitcoin continued to decline and briefly approached $95,000, after just setting a new high of over $108,000. The current downturn in the crypto market has had a greater impact on Altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. In addition, the US exchange-traded fund (ETF) that directly invests in Bitcoin also ended 15 consecutive days of inflows this week, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the change in market sentiment. Due to the approaching Christmas, the market next week will be relatively calm, but there are still some relatively influential data, but due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become quite large. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are: Monday 23:00, US December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21. For the US dollar, with the overall hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve, the dollar is not expected to easily lose its throne gained this year, although the low trading volume during the holiday period may cause some unnecessary volatility. Overall, if there is any market turmoil during the holiday period, it is more likely to hit US stocks and Treasuries. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve is not welcomed on Wall Street, and as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the selloff may intensify.

Christmas season turmoil may hit US stocks and bonds, and lack of liquidity will amplify market volatility

Author | Dominic Weibel & Denis Oevermann & Wolfgang Vitale & Matteo Sansonetti
Compiled by | Wu Blockchain
Original link:
https://files.bitcoinsuisse.com/assets/pdf/BitcoinSuisse_CryptoOutlook2025.pdf
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