Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a major correction, falling about 15% from its all-time high of $108,300 to around $92,000. Currently, with the gradual stabilization of market sentiment, the Bitcoin price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a volatile phase.
The recent decline has caused severe bleeding in Altcoins, with the prices of many tokens even falling back to pre-October levels, wiping out the "Trump effect" rally after Trump's election as US president. Nevertheless, with the arrival of the Christmas holidays, many believe that the "Christmas massacre" will further exacerbate the market's downward trend.
However, as 2025 approaches, a series of positive factors such as Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin's strategic reserve plan are poised to take effect, and the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to usher in a new "dawn" at that time.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of industry insiders, the status of institutional buying, and some on-chain activities in this article, providing readers with a more comprehensive understanding of the market.
Overview of Industry Insiders' Views: Mostly Bullish, Some Bearish
From the perspective of mainstream industry figures, most believe that the current BTC market correction is temporary, mainly due to the too-fast breakthrough of the $108,000 new high, while Altcoin holders are eager to sell, causing market volatility. As 2024 is about to end and 2025 is about to arrive, BTC is expected to continue to reach new highs.
CZ: Waiting for New Headlines, Bitcoin Continues to Set New Highs
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines, and Bitcoin will continue to set new highs. Previously, CZ had tweeted four years ago that BTC "crashed" from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines.
Cathie Wood: BTC Will Become Scarcer Than Gold Due to Institutional Demand
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin "is becoming scarcer than gold", and she had previously predicted that by 2030, the BTC price will exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC Has Three Unstoppable Demand Sources - ETF, MicroStrategy, and Governments
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, Microstrategy, and governments themselves potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added: "It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Demand is too high, supply is too low, so I think the price will be higher in 2025."
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC May Continue to Rise, with a Near-Term Price Target of $125,000
After BTC fell below the $91,000 level recently, it saw a strong rebound over the weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. In this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish outlook on BTC and stated that it may continue to rise in the future. In addition, other on-chain indicators also suggest a positive outlook for BTC. In a recent analysis, Brandt said BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's Candlestick Analysis
However, he also cited technical charts to warn that BTC prices could retrace to $76,614 in the uptrend, and added that "this is not a forecast", pointing out the risks in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect "possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties". In addition, he recently set a BTC price target of $125,000.
Lark Davis: The Current Correction Is Not the "End of the Bull Market", the Market Still Has Ample Fuel
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed based on historical data that the current crypto market correction is not the "end of the bull market". He stated: "In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 (a 136% increase) in the next 23 days. Something similar is happening now, with Bitcoin correcting 13% after a strong Q4 rally. It doesn't mean this is the bottom, we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the crypto market still have ample fuel."
Analyst: Bitcoin's Correction Is Highly Correlated with Coinbase's Selling Since October 26
The recent BTC price decline signals a dramatic shift in market sentiment, rapidly changing from extreme bullishness to uncertainty and caution. With Altcoins taking a beating, the Bitcoin correction has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment is in line with Coinbase's most severe selling activity since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increase in selling pressure clearly indicates a transition of the market from a bullish to a fearful and hesitant state. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain its upward momentum. Furthermore, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 level to seek support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin Could Reach $200,000 by Mid-2025 and Will Maintain a Moderate Correction Trend
In a recent market report, Bitfinex analysts stated that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downtrend in 2025 will be short-lived, and the best-case scenario is that the Bitcoin price will double by June 2025, with the lowest price estimate reaching "$145,000 by mid-2025, and potentially as high as $200,000 under favorable conditions."
The analysts said: "We believe that any 2025 adjustments will be moderate due to the influx of institutional capital." They noted that while Bitcoin is expected to be volatile in Q1 2025, the "broader trend" indicates its price will continue to rise, driven by the sustained inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased global and institutional adoption.
CryptoQuant CEO: This Is Not a Traditional "Altcoin Season", but Rather the Independent Movements of Certain Tokens
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that Bitcoin's market share has dropped 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has now started to rebound. Currently, only a few Altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the capital rotation from Bitcoin to Altcoins is limited.
He believes that this is not a traditional "Altcoin season", but rather the independent movements of certain well-performing tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot, the market may enter a longer consolidation phase
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the Altcoin market: "Alts have quickly fallen back to these levels in less than 48 hours after forming a low wick, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase, or may plummet rapidly in the short term."
Analyst: Seeing a significant correction in the crypto bull market is "very typical"
Earlier, Bitcoin had just hit a new all-time high of over $108,000, and this round of crypto market decline has had a greater impact on Altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended 15 consecutive days of inflows, setting a record $680 million outflow, highlighting the change in market sentiment.
Strahinja Savic, Head of Data and Analytics at FRNT Financial, said that seeing such a significant correction in the crypto bull market is "very typical", and QCP Capital said in a report that the root cause of the sell-off is the market's "excessive optimistic" positions.
Strong buying power: BTC ETF continues to inflow, countries and companies are all following up
From the perspective of the fundamental buying power in the market, it is still in the "hitting zone" of institutional trading, with funds from US BTC ETFs, El Salvador, US-listed companies, and Japanese-listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the cost basis is not much different from the spot price of BTC. Institutions are relatively optimistic about the future performance of BTC.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, governments and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoins, more than double from last year
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on the Bitcoin holdings pie chart, showing that ETFs, governments and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoins, up from 14% last year.
Bitcoin holdings pie chart information
The 50th week trading volume of the US spot Bitcoin ETF reached $26 billion, with $17.5 billion inflows in Q4 so far
According to monitoring by Trader T the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $463 million in the 50th week, with a trading volume of $26 billion. In addition:
El Salvador increases BTC purchase, with a medium-term target of adding 20,000 BTC
On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, El Salvador's senior Bitcoin advisor Max Keiser revealed that "President Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchase, with a medium-term target of adding 20,000 Bitcoin to its strategic Bitcoin reserve." On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address added about 11 more BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Previously, El Salvador had reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to receive a $1.4 billion credit line, but there was a requirement to "reduce Bitcoin risks"; when asked about Bitcoin's status as legal tender in El Salvador, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said that the use of Bitcoin would be voluntary.
In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of El Salvador's Bitcoin Office, clarified that even after the agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" the purchase of Bitcoin as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several crypto-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin Office reported that the "1 BTC per day" purchase plan will continue.
In addition, the country has made additional purchases, adding 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF holdings reach 272 BTC
As of December 19, the holdings of the Australian Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) reached 272 BTC, with an AUM of about $44.3454 million.
Australia's BTC ETF continues to increase holdings
Statistics: At least 10 companies are implementing or considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy
According to statistics, at least 10 companies are implementing or considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: currently holds 294 BTC;
Pickup solution provider Worksport: the board of directors has approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;
Amazon: a shareholder has proposed that the board of directors evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to the financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin miner MARA previously disclosed data that it had raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and bought 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth about $1.53 billion, and repurchased a total principal amount of about $263 million of its existing convertible notes due 2026, and plans to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 on December 19 surpassed Tesla to become the fourth publicly traded company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet adds 619.7 BTC
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced that it has added another 619.7 BTC, at a total cost of 9.5 billion yen (about $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of around $97,800; its total BTC holdings have increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Announcement of additional BTC purchase
Glassnode: The degree of Bitcoin retracement in the bull market trend has decreased, with most corrections around 25%
Glassnode previously stated that "interestingly, as the market has grown, the severity of Bitcoin's retracements during the bull market uptrend has decreased. The deepest drawdown this cycle was -32% (August 5, 2024), while most corrections have only been around 25% from the previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and the growing institutional interest."
Glassnode tends to have a decreasing retracement degree
On-chain activity: growth in wallet addresses, awakening of dormant addresses, and exit of long-term holders
On-chain activity shows a polarized phenomenon: on the one hand, with a longer time scale, the number of holding addresses for mainstream Altcoins has grown to varying degrees, at least 25% or more; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for more than 10 years have also awakened, and many long-term BTC holders have gradually withdrawn.
The number of non-zero BTC and ETH wallets has grown by 27% and 47% respectively in the past two years
Santiment reported that the number of Altcoin holders has increased significantly in the past two years. The following are the non-zero wallet counts for the top four Altcoins by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.70 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month
On December 20, Altcoin analyst AIi posted that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
Continuous outflow of BTC from exchanges
Since September, long-term BTC holders have sold 1 million BTC
In mid-December, long-term BTC holders have been selling a large amount of BTC, with their total BTC holdings decreasing from about 14.20 million in mid-September to about 13.20 million. BTC's current trading price is 13% lower than the historical high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump's victory in the US election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term BTC holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, which is the fourth largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently, several addresses with over $20 million worth of BTC have been activated after years of dormancy
BTC fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% from the $108,000 high it reached on December 17, 2024.
At the same time, at BTC network block height 875,560, a wallet that has been dormant since July 25, 2015 was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, the first activity since its creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old (P2PKH) addresses to two pay-to-witness-public-key-hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of this, 44.99 BTC came from 2015, when BTC was trading at $290. Then, 43 blocks later, dozens of wallets left over from 2017 became active, transferring a small amount of BTC (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This pattern of sending BTC fragments cleverly obscures larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, worth $9.7 million at the current price. On Saturday, a wallet was activated after 12 years of dormancy, transferring 104.99 BTC, which was worth only $11 at the time, for a total value of $1,200. Now, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old-style P2PKH address to a new-style P2WPKH address.
Continuous outflow of BTC from exchanges: Coinbase's bleeding accelerates
Coinglass data shows that the current BTC balance in the Coinbase Pro wallet is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; it has inflows of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, outflows of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
The BTC balance in the Binance wallet is 571,802.93 BTC, with inflows of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, inflows of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and outflows of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
