Master Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
I didn't update over the weekend, and many of my fan friends thought I had run away. But the BTC drop last night and today couldn't help me from coming out to talk a bit. Many people are starting to be pessimistic, wondering if the market is cooling down? But I want to say, don't be in a hurry, be patient, this game of the market hasn't reached the time to reveal the bottom yet.
Let's first review the recent trends. After the election, the BTC price has been hovering around 95K, looking like a light wind ruffling the surface of a spring pool. Subsequently, due to the frequent high-level personnel appointments, the market experienced a wave of rise, but this was more supported by verbal positive news.
So the question is, have these positive news been implemented now? No! Instead, it was met with the Fed's slowdown in rate cuts, and the mood was inevitably adjusted.
But will this adjustment last a long time? Not necessarily. The election stage has ended, but the power transfer and inauguration stage has just begun. The shutdown crisis has also been temporarily avoided, and the Republican Party has no intention of tripping up the old Trump. Looking at January 20th when the old Trump takes office, just mentioning cryptocurrency may be enough to excite the market for a while.
Next is the holiday effect: Christmas Eve, Christmas, low liquidity is inevitable, and it is likely to continue to fluctuate. After the New Year's stock market holiday, Q1 as the annual start, the bulls may have a chance to counterattack. The old Trump's inauguration speech on January 20th is also a potential small peak.
Also talking about sentiment, the panic index in the current market has gradually dissipated. Those investors who fled in panic are basically not firm enough. The remaining ones are either short-term players or hardcore investors who dare to gamble. Fluctuations are not a bad thing, it's more like a "purification of the false and preservation of the true" for retail investors.
I still remember that BTC soared from 26K to 73K after 8 months of fluctuations; and after 8 months of fluctuations at 65K, it surged to 100K again. This time? I don't think it will take another 8 months. The reason is simple: the expectation of Trump's support in January is really too strong, let's see what real positive news the old Trump can bring to cryptocurrency.
Let's also talk about Ethereum, this wave has a maximum drop of 25%. Historical data tells us that in the first segment of the bull market's upward trend, there is a big drop. Either it has already bottomed out, or it will usher in a big B-wave rebound.
And Ethereum's historical performance in January is interesting: except for the bear markets in 2019 and 2022, it has risen in January in other years, especially the second year after the halving, its performance is eye-catching.
And starting this week, liquidity may further dry up. Even ETFs may turn from net inflows to net outflows, and short-term prices may fall below the dense chip area. But as long as the key support is not broken, it's not a big problem.
The trend has not changed, this is just another round of market reshuffling, and the determined ones will laugh last when the game is over. I look forward to January 20th, how will the old Trump's "trump card" change the chess game!
Master Ye Looks at the Trend:
BTC was unable to complete the trend reversal on the weekend, although there was a rebound, but it was not a meaningful rebound, and the current downward pressure is increasing. The current judgment has formed a short-term low point of 93.5K, which can be regarded as the interval for short-term rebound, so before the trend reversal, we still need to pay attention to the possibility of further decline.
Resistance Reference:
First Resistance: 97700
Second Resistance: 97000
Support Reference:
First Support: 94700
Second Support: 93500
Suggestion for Today:
Before the trend reversal, the possibility of downward movement cannot be ruled out. The current second support is the short-term low point, if it falls through again, it may open up the downward space of 91~92K.
There has been a large decline at the moment, and it is planned to operate in the technical rebound interval, but the bearish view still needs to be maintained during the rebound. Under the condition of insufficient upward momentum, it is recommended to adopt a high short position for operation.
12.23 Master Ye's Wave Preset:
Long Entry Reference: 92350 area light long, if retraced to 90850-91125 area, directly long, Target: 93500-94700
Short Entry Reference: 96500-97000 area light short, 97500 area directly short, Target: 96000-94700
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