In this newsletter:
Market Outlook
Dynamo’s Thoughts
Market Health - as determined by metrics
Category & Chain Trends - which categories and chains are growing?
On-Chain Metrics
On-chain Highlights - Curated charts from the past week showing fast-growing DeFi protocols
On-chain Milestones - Chains and protocols that hit on-chain milestones, such as breaking their ATH in TVL
💡Market Outlook
Dynamo’s Thoughts
Let’s be clear, asymmetric returns in crypto don’t come from buying 10% dips after 2 years of run-up.
And most people that trade crypto, do so for asymmetric returns.
Sure, you can be in it for anonymity, decentralization or sound money. And those are great reasons to be into crypto. But those cases often require a multi-year time frame.
Asymmetry in crypto typically comes from 1 of 2 places:
Buying max fear and mass liquidation events
Finding 0-to-1 moments when they’re just taking off
Mass Fear & Liquidation Events
This sort of opportunity, at least on majors, requires more than a few weeks of stagnating prices. Think, BTC or SOL in December 2022 or ETH in June 2022.
Even June to October 2024 was arguably an asymmetric period as all of the catalysts from early 2024 remained, but price had fallen substantially and many industry participants were starting to question whether the bull run had ended.
Compare that to today. We’re in the middle of a retracement, which, while devastating for many altcoins, is relatively modest for BTC. Open interest has been cleared out and price is back to where it was less than a month ago.
The Crypto Fear and Greed index is also still in greed territory. The market, as a whole, hasn’t begun to feel fear yet.
That isn’t to say that the bull market is over, but that on a short time frame, majors are no longer asymmetric. If we get more serious dip, as looks increasingly likely, this could change.
0-to-1 Moments
The other, arguably more difficult but also more fun, way to find asymmetry in crypto is through breakout categories, which we’ll call 0-to-1 moments. These are categories which are either new, like DeFi in 2020, or that have never experienced significant adoption before, like NFTs in 2021.
