Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Although in recent days we have written a lot about market conditions and opinions on Bit, we can still see some interesting comments in the background. Here I will select two representative types:
- Followin' the public account is just to show face, but the articles even have WeChat Beans?
- I often see news reports, many people have been liquidated in Bit, Bit is just a virtual currency, it's a tulip bubble, are you all gamblers in this circle?
Since these two types of questions seem quite interesting, I will simply respond to them publicly:
First, on the issue of WeChat Beans.
I can only say that regarding face, I don't know you, is your face so important? And to be honest, if you're not strong enough, then no one in this world will care about your so-called face.
Furthermore, Talk Li Talk Outside has already output 519 articles through the public account, and these articles are all open and free. Additionally, we have a WeChat Beans column, which currently only has 5 articles, and based on some special considerations, we have only symbolically set a redemption threshold of 2.1 yuan (21 WeChat Beans). As shown in the image below. If you have successfully freeloaded 519 articles from others, but are now dissatisfied with yourself because of 5 articles, thinking that your face is not hanging, then please take good care of your face, and canceling the subscription might be a good thing for you.
Secondly, on the issue of Bit.
In fact, in any field, there are gamblers, it's just a matter of more or less. Of course, you can think that everyone except yourself is a gambler, and that's your freedom. Regarding Bit, if you think Bit is just a virtual currency, and in your eyes it's just an expensive "WeChat Bean", then I won't oppose your view, because everyone has the right to maintain their own views and opinions. You can also think that Bit is a tulip bubble, and we won't argue with you about these.
For people who still have such ideas or views, our suggestion is:
- Feel free to have your own views, you can share your views within the legal scope, but don't try to find others to argue with your views.
- Block all news or messages related to Bit, and try to keep your eyes off it.
Many times, people often have dissatisfaction with certain things, but at the root of it, it may be more because of their own mistakes or not becoming a beneficiary. For example, if you had spent $1,000 to buy 100 Bit in 2012 and successfully held it until now, I guess you wouldn't be saying that Bit is a tulip scam anymore when you see $10 million in your account.
After discussing these two interesting questions, let's continue to talk about Bit.
If we look at the time dimension, we can clearly see that from January 2023 to the present, Bit has been in an overall upward trend. As shown in the image below.
Or to put it bluntly, during the period from January 2023 to October 2024, as long as you buy Bit with your eyes closed at any time, and as long as you can successfully hold it until November 2024, ignoring the fluctuations in between, you will not lose money in terms of overall returns.
But the actual situation is that over the past two years, we have always been able to see people giving various reasons to buy or sell, and many people always hope that they can buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point, and hope to accumulate wealth in a very short time. In the end, they find that not only have they not made money, but some have even lost some of their principal.
In fact, since the Bit spot ETF was approved earlier this year, although Bit still experiences considerable price volatility, compared to the previous bull market cycle, the current cycle has become relatively lower in terms of risk. We can also consider that Bit will officially enter a "low-risk" asset cycle starting from this cycle.
Furthermore, if we simply compare the historical development of Gold, we can even consider that: Bit ETF is the most successful financial product in history.
As for those who still think that Bit is a tulip bubble or a Ponzi scheme, we can only say that you might as well directly say that the US government is a scam, because the approval of the ETF requires the government's approval. Since the Bit ETF has been approved by the US government, doesn't that mean the US government has allowed a tulip scam or a Ponzi scheme?
Obviously, this view seems to be untenable so far, and it is more of a "retaliatory" rhetoric from those who have missed opportunities. Or we can put it in a simpler way, have you ever seen a tulip bubble that has lasted for more than 15 years (the Bit whitepaper was released on October 31, 2008, and Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first Bit block on January 3, 2009)?
Here's another interesting piece of data: According to the 99bitcoins website, Bit has been declared dead 477 times in the past decade or so. As shown in the image below.
But this so-called "death report" and tulip bubble rhetoric have not prevented Bit's price from rising more than 152,000 times. As shown in the image below.
And don't forget that it's been less than a year since the Bit ETF was officially approved, and with further adoption by institutions (and the possibility of some countries/regions including Bit in their strategic reserves), the development of Bit into a "new stage" has just begun. The 1 Bit you didn't care about before, the 1 Bit you feel you can't afford today, the 1 Bit in the future you can only look up to.
Of course, the future may look promising, but the process is often tortuous, and from a longer time perspective, we may continue to experience a new cycle (bull market, bear market) after another.
Let's talk about next year first:
Many people seem to be full of expectations for the upcoming 2025, expecting Bit to hit new highs in 2025, and expecting a full-scale altcoin season to emerge in 2025... In the previous few articles on market topics in Talk Li Talk Outside, we have discussed more about some macroeconomic factors that may bring positive changes to the market next year. Now let's continue to discuss the potential macroeconomic risks next year, as opportunities and risks always coexist.
1. The pace of interest rate cuts by the Fed may slow down
Regarding the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed next year, we have actually gone through some analysis in the previous articles. Last week (Beijing time December 19), the Fed announced that it will lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and expects the pace of rate cuts to slow to 50 basis points in 2025.
Followin' the release of this message, the market (includin' the US stock market and the crypto market) experienced a rapid decline. Lookin' at the current situation, more and more people have taken the Fed's interest rate cut expectations as one of the important factors in evaluatin' market trends, and the Fed's slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts is certainly not good news for the market.2. There may be a continuation of the trade war after Trump takes office
Recently, we have been able to see some signs through reports from certain media, such as the US possibly imposin' a 100% tariff on the BRICS countries next year. If the trade war resumes, it will certainly have an impact on GDP, and to some extent, impede economic development. As shown in the figure below.
3. NVDA's earnings may be lower than expected
As an important representative of US tech stocks, data shows that last year alone, they contributed a return of 20% to the S&P 500 index. However, after they released their third quarter financial report last month (November 20), the market's reaction was not as strong, despite the fact that the data still exceeded expectations (third quarter revenue was $35.1 Bit, higher than the $33.2 Bit generally expected by market analysts. Net profit was $19.31 Bit, higher than the market expectation of $17.45 Bit).
Lookin' at this trend, the market seems to have higher expectations for NVDA, which undoubtedly adds to the volatility factors in the market next year.
4. Inflation in the US is still a major issue
Accordin' to the current development trend, after Trump officially takes office next year, the US should further increase or stimulate economic development, such as the recovery and growth of the manufacturin' industry, and the boosting of the oil and gas industry. Accordin' to some economists' forecasts, the US GDP growth will remain around 3.0% and may accelerate by 2025.
However, this growth rate will theoretically occur when inflation begins to rebound and monetary policy is relaxed. In other words, the inflation issue is still a major problem the US (and the global economy) will face next year, and this problem seems to be gettin' more and more apparent. At the same time, the inflation issue in turn further affects the interest rate hike/cut policies of the Fed mentioned above.
5. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond continues to rise
By the way, let me mention domestic wealth management products. Have you noticed that the yields of some low-risk wealth management products in China have started to rise recently? Products that used to have an annual yield of around 2% have now risen to 3% or even higher. The long-term wealth management product I bought at a certain bank has even directly soared to over 4%, which I haven't seen in a "low-risk" wealth management product for a long time. As shown in the figure below.
This is mainly because the rise in Treasury bonds has driven the rise in low-risk wealth management products, after all, many low-risk wealth management products are mainly invested in various debt assets. As for the reasons for the rise in Treasury bonds, there are two main ones: first, there is news that the policy interest rate is expected to be adjusted downward by 40-50bp next year; second, given the current situation in the A-share market, it is estimated that a lot of capital will return to the bond market for hedgin', with this dual impact directly drivin' the rise in the bond market. As long as the A-share market does not experience a major bull market like a few months (September) ago (although it was very short), it will naturally be beneficial to the bond market. As shown in the figure below.
As for the relationship between Treasury bond yields and the rise and fall of wealth management products, we actually wrote a separate article on this earlier (in 2022). Interested readers can search for the historical article to review it. However, the performance of Treasury bonds is just one aspect, and another major issue we may face next year is the possibility of deflation. But the domestic topic is relatively sensitive, so we won't discuss it too much here. Let's continue to talk about the US.
Since the Fed's policy shift this month, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has continued to rise, and accordin' to the current trend, it may reach 5% as early as the second quarter of next year, which is bad news for the market. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, the 5 aspects we listed above are more from a macroeconomic perspective. With the accumulation of various other factors and news, 2025 is a year full of opportunities, but also accompanied by greater market volatility risks. In the end, remember the sentence in our previous article: strictly manage your own position, livin' longer is more important than livin' well in the short term, and investment is a long-term, comprehensive cultivation.
