Odaily星球日报讯 美联储对 2025 年利率的预测中值仅为降息 50 个基点，但加拿大商业经济协会（BCA）预计会有更多降息。BCA 分析师在一份报告中称，通胀很可能低于美联储 2025 年的预测，而失业率可能高于美联储 2025 年的预测。他们表示：“因此，将需要超过 50 个基点的宽松政策。”美联储预测到 2025 年底失业率为 4.3%，“这需要劳动力市场的发展势头有显著改善，而我们认为这种趋势转变不太可能发生。”（金十）

加拿大商业经济协会：美联储明年需要降息超过50个基点

Odaily Odaily News: The median forecast of the Federal Reserve for interest rates in 2025 is only a 50 basis point cut, but the Canadian Business Economics Association (BCA) expects more cuts. Inflation is likely to be lower than the Fed&#39;s 2025 forecast, while unemployment may be higher than the Fed&#39;s 2025 forecast, BCA analysts said in a report. &quot;Therefore, more than 50 basis points of easing will be needed,&quot; they said. The Fed predicts that the unemployment rate will be 4.3% by the end of 2025, &quot;which requires a significant improvement in the momentum of the labor market, and we think this trend change is unlikely to happen.&quot; (Jinshi)

Canadian Association for Business Economics: Fed needs to cut rates by more than 50 basis points next year

Odaily reports that the tone of the Federal Reserve became more hawkish last week. It expects the inflation rate in 2025 to be higher than previously estimated, and has reduced the number of expected rate cuts next year. Reviving Macro analyst Neil Datta wrote that the Federal Reserve may find itself in an unfavorable position in an apparently slowing economic environment, and then return to a more dovish stance. He suspects that the expectations of the Trump administration's policies - which Powell acknowledged that some of the Fed's officials have now taken into account - will lead to changes in next year's forecast, and the Federal Reserve "seems to be taking precautionary measures against potential tariff shocks by slowing the pace of rate cuts". Datta wrote: "Given the potential momentum of the economy seems to have weakened, this (approach) is very dangerous."

Analysts: Fed's hawkish turn is dangerous for the economy

Although the trade and tax policies of President-elect Trump pose an imminent threat to the bond market, Wall Street is still inspired by the Federal Reserve and predicts that the yield on short-term U.S. Treasuries will decline by 2025.

The forecasts of the strategists are largely consistent, believing that the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, will decline. They believe that within 12 months from now, the yield will decline by at least 50 basis points from the current level.

"While investors may be short-sighted in focusing on the pace and magnitude of rate cuts next year, investors should step back and recognize that the Federal Reserve will still be in...

Wall Street: Forecasts that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will fall by 50 basis points next year

The US dollar rose as the market continued to bet on the Federal Reserve taking a cautious rate cut path. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 38 basis points by December 2025.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points the previous week, but hinted that the pace of future rate cuts would slow. In a report, Deutsche Bank analysts said the Federal Reserve is likely to skip a rate cut in January next year, which could turn into a prolonged pause in policy easing by 2025. (<金十>)