Bitcoin, accompanied by the arrival of Christmas, was originally expected by the market that investors would temporarily withdraw, and the liquidity would decrease, resulting in continued low-point fluctuations. However, it may be that institutions or whales took the opportunity to stock up, and Bitcoin once reached $99,968 at 8 o'clock this morning, extremely close to the 100,000 mark. As of the time of writing, it has retreated slightly and is currently reported at $98,945.
Analyst: Bitcoin may reach a new high on January 17
Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, Vetle Lunde, the research director of K33, recently stated that according to the previous bull market cycle, the average duration from the first historical high to the last historical high in each Bitcoin bull market is 318 days. Calculating from the first historical high set by Bitcoin on March 5 this year, Bitcoin may reach the new high of this bull market on January 17 next year:
The average duration between the first historical high and the last historical high in a cycle is 318 days.
If this situation repeats in this bull market, we may officially reach the bull market peak on January 17, which just happens to be the inauguration day of President Trump on January 20.
In addition, regarding the price forecast, Vetle Lunde said that in this cycle, based on the previous bull market peaks, the peak level of Bitcoin may fall at $146,000; and if based on the previous market capitalization as a reference, Bitcoin may reach as high as $212,500 in the cycle.
However, it is worth noting that since the Bitcoin spot ETF was listed and traded in the US this year, and it has broken several records of the gold ETF since its listing in less than a year, coupled with the fact that the US President-elect Trump has repeatedly stated that he will promote the development of the cryptocurrency industry after taking office, some analysts believe that Bitcoin may have broken the rules of the previous bull market, so it is not possible to predict the future market trend rigidly at the moment.
The largest options in history will expire on Friday
The event particularly worth noting this week is that on Friday, $14 billion in Bitcoin options open interest (OI) will expire. Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit exchange, previously stated that the ratio of put options to call options in this expiring contract is 0.69, that is, for every 10 call options, there are 7 put options. This indicates a certain degree of downside concern in the market.
At the same time, the number of contracts expiring this time (146,000) is also not small, which is twice the number of contracts expiring in March 2025 (73,000).
Strijers further explained that the expiring contracts account for 44% of the current total Bitcoin options open interest ($32 billion). Deribit exchange expects that more than $4 billion of these contracts will be executed upon expiration, which will inevitably trigger a lot of trading activity:
All eyes will be on the upcoming options expiration date, as it may set the tone for the market in 2025.
