1. Price comparison and market psychology According to the "10 IQ Price Fractal" theory, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 40% from its previous all-time high, while Ethereum (ETH) is still about 30% below its previous all-time high. Although this alone does not mean much, since both assets have launched ETF products, for ordinary investors, ETH appears "cheaper" than BTC, and is therefore seen as having greater upside potential.
2. Trump's pro-crypto policy The pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration is most beneficial to assets with utility and smart contract functionality. We have already seen some decentralized finance (DeFi) assets (such as AAVE and UNI) perform well under this expectation, but the underlying asset that will benefit the most is undoubtedly Ethereum. Trump's World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project has not carried out any activities on Solana, but has continued to choose Ethereum-related assets. I believe this trend will continue.
3. Development of the Base ecosystem Among all the Layer 2 solutions for Ethereum, Base is undoubtedly the star chain this year. Leveraging Coinbase's native distribution channels and the organic development of the AI agent metaverse led by "Virtuals", Base offers a value proposition very similar to Solana and can undoubtedly be seen as a competitor. Since Base itself does not have its own token, this will naturally create demand for ETH as the underlying asset and bring positive capital inflows as the ecosystem activity increases. I expect ETH to break through $4,000 in January and potentially approach its all-time high in the first quarter.
I believe the three areas that will continue to perform well are: AI agents; tokens with utility and able to generate fees; and potential ETF-related tokens. I would not classify these views as "contrarian", but I also don't think now is the time to take a strongly contrarian stance. We will have time for contrarian trades later, but now is not the time. Regarding the view on the cycle top: I suspect most of 2025 will be similar to 2023 or 2024, with some areas experiencing re-rating and rallies, followed by significant PvP (player-versus-player) volatility. Ultimately, one of these rallies will become the top of the global cycle, but I believe we are still far from that point.