According to a message from ChainCatcher, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio released his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025:
"It feels like it's been a long time since Trump won the election 2 months ago, and now we're about to enter 2025, with prices already significantly higher than they were not long ago. With the US leading the way in developing crypto-friendly policies and regulations, the industry is full of hope for a new pro-crypto world.
Considering the local highs we experienced in December, I believe the bull market will continue in a similar fashion, with some assets performing exceptionally well and others lagging behind. For the next quarter, I think the biggest beneficiary will be ETH, for the following three reasons:
- 10 IQ price fractal: BTC has rallied 40% from its previous all-time high, while ETH is 30% below its previous all-time high. While this doesn't mean much, both assets have ETF products, and for the public, it's not hard to believe that ETH is cheaper (and therefore has more upside) than BTC;
- Trump's pro-crypto government: This has always been most beneficial for utility/smart contract-related assets. We've already seen some DeFi assets (AAVE/UNI) perform well in anticipation of this, but the underlying asset that will benefit the most is undoubtedly ETH. Trump's WLF hasn't done anything on Solana, but has been continuously acquiring Ethereum-based assets, and I think this will only continue;
- Base ecosystem development: Among all the L2s on Ethereum, Base is the most prominent chain this year. Leveraging Coinbase's native distribution channels and the organic growth of Virtuals-led AI agents, Base's value proposition is very similar to Solana, and can be classified as a competitor. This creates natural demand for ETH as the base asset (since Base itself doesn't have its own token), and provides positive flow as ecosystem activity increases.
I expect ETH to break through $4,000 as early as next January, and it may even set a new all-time high at some point in the first quarter.
Additionally, I believe the three verticals that will continue to perform well are:
- AI agents;
- Utility fee-generating tokens;
- Potential crypto ETFs.
In terms of cycle peaks, I suspect most of 2025 will be similar to 2023 or 2024, with some capital or re-rating, followed by a massive PvP drawdown. Ultimately, one of these rallies will become the global peak, but I don't think we're close to that high yet."
