The prospect of the United States integrating Bit into its financial reserves remains a hotly debated topic.
Many experts believe this possibility is very low, especially in the short term, as uncertainty dominates discussions in the Cryptocurrency community.
Bit reserve ratio declines as US policy analysts predict resistance
Prediction platforms and analysts have divergent views on the likelihood of Bit joining the US reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users only assess a 29% chance that newly elected President Donald Trump will introduce a Bit reserve in his first 100 days in office. This is a sharp decline from the post-election optimism, when the rate reached 60%.
This decline reflects a broader skepticism about Bit's role in US financial policy. Supporters see Bit as a natural complement to the current reserves, such as gold and oil. However, critics argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make this move impractical.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, doubts the feasibility of the US accepting Bit as a reserve asset under Trump's tenure. He suggests that such a change would only occur if the country's global economic power was seriously threatened.
Ju has drawn parallels between today's Bit advocates and past campaigns to return to the gold standard. Both have proposed alternative assets as a solution to economic instability.
However, historical trends show resistance to relying on a single asset. For example, calls to reinstate the gold standard in the late 1990s were rejected, and the US chose to innovate to overcome economic challenges. Ju predicts that Bit may face similar rejection unless the country's economic position weakens.
"If Trump succeeds in demonstrating US economic strength, consolidating the dominance of the USD, and boosting his approval ratings, it is unclear whether he will maintain the strong pro-Bit stance he exhibited in his campaign. He may easily back away from Bit support, citing changing priorities, without alienating his voters," Ju stated.
Despite the skepticism, some experts still defend Bit's potential to reshape global finance. VanEck's Mathew Sigel recently argued that the US could reduce its national debt by up to 36% by 2050 through adopting a Strategic Bit Reserve. Sigel envisions Bit becoming the leading payment currency in global trade, especially for countries seeking to bypass US sanctions.
Meanwhile, some market observers believe this move could be made by 2026. Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market open to US participants, assesses the likelihood of this Bit development occurring before January 2026 at 56%.
