Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 在其市场分析中表示，最大的意外是牛市突然达到顶峰，而此时几乎人人都最有信心比特币将在 2025 年上涨+50%至+150%。一些人甚至预测，在特朗普就职典礼之前，比特币将出现精确定时的抛物线走势，但随后会出现大幅回调。10x Research 则持不同观点。 虽然 12 月 23 日的报告建议采取谨慎态度并强调了各种风险因素，但现在有几个关键数据点需要交易者仔细评估和监控，因为其预计比特币波动性将很快增加。

Odaily星球日报讯 10x Research 在其市场分析中表示，最大的意外是牛市突然达到顶峰，而此时几乎人人都最有信心比特币将在 2025 年上涨+50%至+150%。一些人甚至预测，在特朗普就职典礼之前，比特币将出现精确定时的抛物线走势，但随后会出现大幅回调。10x Research 则持不同观点。虽然 12 月 23 日的报告建议采取谨慎态度并强调了各种风险因素，但现在有几个关键数据点需要交易者仔细评估和监控，因为其预计比特币波动性将很快增加。

10x Research：预计比特币波动性将很快增加

Odaily reports that 10x Research's market analysis indicates that the biggest surprise is that the bull market has suddenly reached its peak, and at this time, almost everyone is most confident that Bitcoin will rise by +50% to +150% by 2025. Some even predict that before Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin will experience a precisely timed parabolic trend, but will then experience a significant correction. However, 10x Research holds a different view. Although the December 23 report advised caution and emphasized various risk factors, there are now several key data points that traders need to carefully evaluate and monitor, as Bitcoin volatility is expected to increase rapidly.

Odaily reports that 10x Research's market analysis indicates that the biggest surprise is that the bull market has suddenly reached its peak, and at this time, almost everyone is most confident that Bitcoin will rise +50% to +150% by 2025. Some even predict that before Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin will experience a precisely timed parabolic trend, but will then experience a significant correction. However, 10x Research holds a different view. Although the December 23 report advised caution and emphasized various risk factors, there are now several key data points that traders need to carefully evaluate and monitor, as Bitcoin volatility is expected to increase rapidly.

10x Research: Bitcoin volatility is expected to increase soon

The Bit price has retreated to $94,000 on the eve of Christmas, with a cautious but opportunistic market sentiment. Bitunix Research Institute, combining macroeconomic and crypto policy changes, has conducted an in-depth analysis of the three key influencing factors and development trends of the crypto market in 2025:

1. Global macroeconomic environment: Hedging demand in high inflation
The global economy is facing the challenges of high inflation and high interest rates. The high-interest policy in the US has increased the pressure of government debt, while Europe's economic growth is weak due to energy shortages.
Impact: Against the backdrop of global economic instability, the market's demand for anti-inflation assets (such as Bit) may increase, further consolidating Bit's positioning as "digital gold".

2. Federal Reserve monetary policy: Key to interest rates and market volatility
Although the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, Trump's high tariff policy may exacerbate inflationary pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates in 2025.
Impact: The high-interest rate environment may suppress the performance of traditional risk assets, but the demand for anti-inflationary assets like Bit will rise. Bit's hedging attributes will attract more capital inflows, supporting its long-term value.

3. Crypto policy of the Trump administration: Upgrading strategic positioning
The strategic Bit reserve plan and pro-crypto policy proposed by Trump are expected to reshape the market landscape.
Impact: If the plan is implemented, Bit will transform from an investment tool to a national strategic asset, further enhancing its international status and promoting the legalization of digital assets globally.

4. Technological innovation and application: Leading Layer 2 and Web3
The rapid development of Layer 2 technology and the widespread adoption of Web3 applications will bring new growth momentum to the crypto market.
Impact: The prosperity of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and other Web3 ecosystems will attract more traditional capital and users to enter the market, further driving overall market capitalization growth.

5. The US debt problem: Bit's hedging advantage
Under high interest rates, the pressure on US debt is increasing, and market concerns about the sustainability of debt are gradually rising.
Impact: Bit may become a new choice for the international reserve system, attracting more countries and institutions to include it in their foreign exchange reserves, further boosting its valuation and international recognition.

Bitunix Research Institute believes that the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment and the driving force of policy changes will jointly shape the crypto market landscape in 2025. Policy-friendliness, technological innovation, and changes in global capital flows will bring long-term growth potential to the market. We recommend that investors pay attention to macroeconomic indicators and policy dynamics, and make reasonable investment strategies to seize the golden opportunity of market recovery.

Bitunix Research Institute: Bitcoin retreats to $94,000, macroeconomic and policy changes will dominate the crypto market in 2025

Odaily reported that in the early morning of December 28, Bit suddenly accelerated its decline, and at one point fell to around $93,000, but quickly recovered the decline and is now back above $94,000. Coinglass data shows that in the last 24 hours, 92,500 people globally have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $241 million. According to media reports, on December 27, Bit had an options expiration worth $14.27 billion, with the largest open interest at the $90,000 strike price. Data from Deribit, which accounts for 72% of the Bit options market, shows that the open interest of call options is $8.45 billion, while the open interest of put options is $5.82 billion. The data shows that the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit saw a record $43 billion in open interest expire on Friday, including $13.95 billion in Bit options and $3.77 billion in Ethereum options. Industry insiders said that due to market makers potentially unwinding their hedging positions and short positions on Bit, this made the market unusually volatile on Friday. Meanwhile, Split Capital founder Zaheer Ebtikar previously said that the market seems to be hovering around $100,000, and large funds appear to be satisfied with this level and are preparing to end their trading for the year.

China Fund News: Huge options expiration triggers Bitcoin volatility

Odaily Report: According to a market forecast report by cryptocurrency mining company Blockware, Bitcoin prices could quadruple by 2025, with the worst-case scenario still seeing a 58% increase, depending on Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan and Federal Reserve policy. Blockware believes that if Trump "does not execute" the strategic Bitcoin reserve, a bear market target price of $150,000 is possible, which the industry hopes can be achieved in the early days of his administration. Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers stated that Trump is likely to issue an executive order on his first day in office, designating Bitcoin as a US reserve asset. Meanwhile, Blockware said that even if the Federal Reserve "further reverses" its rate cut direction, long-term holders (addresses holding BTC for more than 155 days) "actively" selling Bitcoin, the bear market target price could still be achieved. Blockware added that if the following three factors converge, Bitcoin prices could reach a "bull market" of $400,000: First, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declining, the Federal Reserve must take a "more moderate stance". Second, companies must accelerate Bitcoin adoption, with one of the "Big Seven" - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla - adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Finally, the US government must not only convert its existing Bitcoin holdings into strategic Bitcoin reserves, but also accumulate more Bitcoin, although Galaxy Digital recently stated that this outcome is unlikely. As a "base case", assuming the US government converts its Bitcoin holdings into strategic Bitcoin reserves, the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, and corporate adoption continues at the "current pace", Blockware sets a BTC target price of $225,000.