Jinse Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Jinse Finance. The content covers key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This is the news weekly, which will give you an overview of the major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headline
▌Two former FTX crypto exchange executives receive reduced sentences
According to the Washington Post, the prison sentences of two former FTX crypto exchange executives appear to have been shortened. According to the Federal Bureau of Prisons website, Ryan Salame began serving his 7.5-year sentence in October and is now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison's current projected release date is July 2026, a few months shorter than her initial two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 due to questions about its financial condition and its relationship with its sister trading company Alameda Research, leading to a bank run-like customer withdrawal. Authorities later accused FTX of misusing customer funds to pay off Alameda Research's loans and other projects. This scandal led to the stunning downfall of FTX, once the world's third-largest crypto exchange, and its founder SBF. Salame was the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamas subsidiary, and he admitted to operating an unlicensed money transmission business, violating campaign finance laws. Ellison was the former CEO of Alameda, and she pleaded guilty in December 2022 to charges of wire fraud, securities fraud, commodities fraud, and money laundering.
▌Musk: Federal Reserve is massively overstaffed
Musk wrote on the social media platform X that the Federal Reserve, which is responsible for protecting the world's largest economy, is "massively overstaffed", in response to a post about the Fed's latest policy decision.
▌US media: Some major US banks plan to sue the Federal Reserve over annual stress tests
According to CNBC, a source familiar with the matter said that several major banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress tests. The source said the lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time. The Fed's stress tests are an annual routine that require banks to hold sufficient buffer capital for potential loan losses and set limits on stock buybacks and dividends. On Monday after the market close, the Fed announced in a statement that it plans to adjust the bank stress tests, but did not provide details on the specific changes to the annual stress test framework. However, these adjustments may not be enough to allay banks' concerns about the onerous capital requirements, as the Fed stated that "the proposed changes are not intended to have a material impact on overall capital requirements." Greg Baer, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute representing major banks like JPMorgan, Citi and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed's statement, saying it was "a first step towards transparency and accountability." However, Baer also hinted at further action, saying "we are reviewing this statement and considering other steps to ensure timely, lawful, and policy-compliant reforms."
▌Data: Only 7 out of 25 listed mining companies will achieve positive returns by the end of 2024
As of December 24, Bitcoin is up 113% in 2024. However, according to the Hash Rate Index and Google Finance data, the stock prices of most listed mining companies are in a downward trend by the end of 2024, with a drop of up to 84%. Among the 25 listed mining companies in the index, only 7 achieved positive returns. As of the time of writing, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) is up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) is up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) is down 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) down 69% (just to name a few). Bitcoin miners have accumulated over $71 billion in revenue. According to Blockchain.com data, miner revenue was $42 million on December 22, down from a peak of over $100 million in April.
▌Analyst: Crypto venture capital may exceed $18 billion by 2025
According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le, crypto venture capital funding could exceed $18 billion by 2025, with several quarters seeing investments of $5 billion or more. Crypto venture capital is expected to total around $9 billion in 2023 and reach $11 billion in 2024, with quarterly averages of $20-25 billion. Although investment activity slowed in the summer, it has rebounded post-election, and generalist venture firms are expected to refocus on crypto next year. Le also pointed out that the "crypto and AI" investment theme will continue to heat up, as crypto technology may provide innovative solutions to certain core problems as AI expands, potentially becoming a new growth area.
Policy
▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a report management measure for high-risk transactions such as illegal cross-border financial activities of virtual currencies
On December 27, according to a notice from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the "Measures for the Management of Reporting of Foreign Exchange Risk Transactions by Banks (Trial)" have been issued and will take effect immediately. The Measures are a supporting document to the "Measures for the Administration of Foreign Exchange Business of Banks (Trial)", aimed at strengthening banks' foreign exchange risk management and early identification, early warning and early disposal of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities of virtual currencies. The main contents include: clarifying the reporting responsibilities of banks for foreign exchange risk transactions, requiring the establishment of a monitoring system and submission of reports; stipulating the scope of information reporting, including activities suspected of illegal cross-border capital flows; specifying the reporting content, such as basic situation and proposed measures; and strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and confidential data management.
▌Russian Finance Minister: The use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russian companies have started using Bitcoin and other digital currencies for international payments after legislation was adjusted to allow the use of cryptocurrencies to circumvent Western sanctions. This year, Russia has legalized the use of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, in foreign trade, and has taken steps to legalize cryptocurrency mining. Russia is one of the world's leading Bitcoin mining countries. Siluanov said, "Such transactions are already underway. We believe they should be further expanded and developed. I believe this will be the case next year." He also added that the use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.
▌The US Treasury Department and the IRS have finalized reporting requirements for certain crypto asset brokers
According to market news, the US Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have finalized reporting requirements for certain crypto asset brokers (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021). Due to the crypto industry's resistance to tracking transactions, the Biden administration's progress in developing this regulatory regime has been delayed.
▌The US crypto industry calls on Congress to block new DeFi broker rules
The IRS announced new rules on December 27 that define certain decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers and require them to perform know-your-customer (KYC) obligations, sparking strong opposition from the crypto industry. The regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts have criticized the rule as exceeding authority and potentially infringing on constitutional rights. Paradigm's Vice President Alexander Grieve called on the new "crypto-friendly Congress" to pass the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal this rule. The Blockchain Association said the rule is "a last-ditch effort to push the US crypto industry overseas", and stated it will take action to fight it. Previous reports indicated that the IRS is requiring "DeFi brokers" to collect user transaction information.
▌CryptoQuant founder: Trump's Bitcoin policy depends on the US's economic position
Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as instructed:Jinse Finance CEO and founder Ki Young Ju said that the Bitcoin policy of President-elect Donald Trump may depend on the global investment community's view of the strength of the US economy and the US dollar. Ju believes that when investors perceive a threat to US economic hegemony, the prices of value-storing assets like gold and BTC will soar. However, if investors continue to express confidence in the US economy and view the US dollar as a safe-haven currency, this advantageous position is likely to make the Trump administration less inclined to adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve to protect the dollar's dominance, and may lead the President-elect to backtrack on policies supporting Bitcoin.
Blockchain Applications
▌World Network Surpasses 20 Million Global Participants
According to an official post from World, as of December, the World Network has over 20 million global participants, of which about 9.5 million are verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. The network adds 800,000 new users per week, with 355,000 new verified users, and over 8 million monthly active World App users, equivalent to a new user joining every 0.75 seconds. As AI technology develops rapidly, "Proof of Human" is becoming a key technology to address the crisis of online identity trust. According to the Stanford University 2024 AI Index Report, 52% of Americans are concerned about AI products, and 66% believe AI will have a major impact on their lives within 3-5 years.
▌Lido Releases Ethereum Staking SDK, Supports Cross-Chain Staking Functionality Integration
Lido has announced the launch of an Ethereum staking SDK, a TypeScript utility library for building off-chain integrations. The SDK allows developers to seamlessly integrate Lido staking functionality into off-chain applications, providing core functions like staking, reward tracking, withdrawal, and wrapping. The newly released SDK has multi-chain support, allowing staking/unstaking operations on networks like OP Mainnet without the need for cross-chain. The toolkit includes pre-built methods and comprehensive documentation for developing DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.
▌Bio Protocol Releases 2025 Roadmap, to Launch New BIO Launchpad
The decentralized science (DeSci) governance and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol has released its 2025 roadmap, including: BIO token TGE on Ethereum mainnet on January 3; BIO token to be launched on Solana and Base networks; new BioDAO launch; BIO/BioDAO liquidity pool; new BIO Launchpad to be officially launched.
▌Forbes Predicts 7 Crypto Industry Trends for 2025
Forbes has published an article predicting 7 major crypto industry trends for 2025: 1. G7 or BRICS countries will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves; 2. Stablecoin market cap will double to $400 billion; 3. Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will see rapid growth leveraging L2 networks (like Stacks, BOB, Babylon), with locked value potentially exceeding the current $24 billion of cross-chain wrapped Bitcoin; 4. Crypto ETF products will expand into Ethereum staking and Solana; 5. Tech giants like Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla in accumulating Bitcoin; 6. Crypto market cap will surpass $8 trillion; 7. Improved US regulatory environment will drive a crypto startup renaissance.
▌Crypto Miner HIVE Digital Invests $30 Million to Deploy NVIDIA Chip Cluster
Crypto miner HIVE Digital Technologies (Nasdaq: HIVE) has announced the deployment of a new NVIDIA GPU cluster in Quebec. The $30 million project includes 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster will be operational by the end of 2024, expected to generate $15 million in annualized HPC revenue next quarter; the H200 cluster will arrive in January 2025 and is planned to be deployed in Q2 2025, with expected annualized revenue exceeding $20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes stated that the $10 million HPC NVIDIA chip service for AI demand has revenue potential equivalent to $100 million in Bitcoin mining.
Cryptocurrencies
▌Ethereum NFT Trading Volume Surges to $186 Million Last Week, Hitting 3-Month High
According to data from The Block, Ethereum NFT trading volume surged to $186 million last week, reaching a 3-month high, up 67% from the previous week's $111 million. The Pudgy Penguins collection was a major catalyst for this trend after the launch of its PENGU token, generating $108 million in trading volume, with individual Pudgy Penguins briefly trading above 29 ETH before quickly declining after the token launch. Bitcoin is the second-largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of only $33 million.
▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many Regulated US Banks Cannot Touch Crypto, Regulatory Framework Remains Unclear
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated at a recent Reuters event that many regulated US banks still cannot engage with cryptocurrencies. Solomon added, "Everyone is speculating on how the regulatory framework will evolve, but it's still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve." Currently, people are still guessing how long it will take for the first crypto bill to pass through the House, Senate, and in front of Trump.
▌Telegram Founder: 2023 Revenue to Exceed $1 Billion
Telegram founder Pavel Durov posted on his personal Telegram channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has doubled this year, exceeding 12 million, and advertising revenue has also increased several-fold. Additionally, Telegram's total revenue is expected to exceed $1 billion in 2024, with a cash reserve of over $500 million at the end of the year, excluding crypto assets. Over the past four years, Telegram has issued around $2 billion in debt.
▌Coinbase Report: Stablecoin Total Market Cap Grew 48% Since Early 2024
A Coinbase report shows that the total stablecoin market cap has grown 48% since early 2024.
▌2 Whales Accumulate 4.47 Million ai16z
According to Lookonchain monitoring, 2 whales are hoarding ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC today to purchase 2.96 million ai16z at around $1.253 per token. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($188 million) today to purchase 1.51 million ai16z at around $1.247 per token.
Key Economic Dynamics
▌87.2% Probability of Fed Keeping Rates Unchanged in January 2024
According to the CME "Fed Watch", there is an 87.2% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in January 2024, and a 12.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. By March 2024, the probability of keeping the current rate unchanged is 50.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.
▌VanEck: Bitcoin Reserve Strategy Could Reduce US Debt by 35%, Offsetting $42 Trillion in Liabilities
Asset manager VanEck stated that if the US establishes a 1 million Bitcoin reserve as proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the national debt could be reduced by 35% over the next 24 years. VanEck's estimate assumes Bitcoin will grow at a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to $423,000 by 2049, while US debt will rise at a 5% CAGR from $37 trillion in early 2025 to $119.3 trillion by the same period. VanEck's Digital Asset Research Head Matthew Sigel and Investment Analyst Nathan Frankovitz said in a December 20 report: "By 2049, the reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities."
▌Wall Street: Forecasts 2-Year US Treasury Yield to Drop 50 Basis Points Next Year
Despite the looming threat of President-elect Trump's trade and tax policies to the bond market, Wall Street is still inspired by the Federal Reserve, predicting that the yield on US short-term government bonds will decline by 2025. Most strategists' forecasts are consistent, believing that the yield on 2-year Treasuries, which are more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, will decline. They believe that within 12 months from now, the yield will drop by at least 50 basis points from the current level. The median forecast of 12 strategists is that the yield on 2-year US Treasuries will decline by about 50 basis points to 3.75% in a year. For the longer-term 10-year US Treasuries, strategists believe that the yield of around 4.52% last Friday will reach 4.25% by the end of 2025, about 25 basis points lower than the current level.
▌The Korean won exchange rate fell below 1480 won per US dollar, the lowest since 2009
On December 27, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market broke through 1480 won per US dollar. Previously, political turmoil in South Korea had led to a continuous decline in the Korean won. On December 19, in the Seoul foreign exchange market, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar opened at 1453.0 won per US dollar, the lowest level of the Korean won against the US dollar since March 2009.
▌The US dollar index has risen more than 7% so far this year, the best performance since 2015
The US dollar is heading for its best annual performance in nearly a decade, as the strength of the US economy has dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and the threat of tariffs imposed by President-elect Donald Trump has supported US dollar bulls. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index has risen more than 7% so far this year, the best performance since 2015. As other central banks have had to intervene to support their domestic economies, all major developed market currencies have weakened against the US dollar.
