From @glxyresearch's 2025 cryptocurrency forecast, covering the price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the ETHBTC ratio, Dogecoin and D.O.G.E., stablecoins, DeFi, L2 solutions, policies, venture capital, and more. Here is the forecast content we just shared with @galaxyhq clients and partners:
Bitcoin price is expected to break through $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and reach or exceed $185,000 in the fourth quarter
Adoption by institutions, enterprises, and nations will be the main driver of Bitcoin's price reaching new highs in 2025. Since its inception, Bitcoin's appreciation rate has been faster than all other asset classes, especially the S&P 500 and gold, and this trend will continue in 2025. Bitcoin's market capitalization is expected to reach 20% of the total gold market value.
- @intangiblecoins
The total assets under management (AUM) of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs will surpass $250 billion in 2025
In 2024, Bitcoin ETPs attracted over $36 billion in net inflows, becoming the best-performing ETP portfolio in history. Many top global hedge funds (such as Millennium, Tudor, and D.E. Shaw) have chosen Bitcoin ETPs, and according to 13F filings, the State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) also holds relevant positions. Within a single year, the AUM of Bitcoin ETPs is only $24 billion (19%) away from surpassing the total size of all physical gold ETPs in the U.S.
- @intangiblecoins
Bitcoin will once again be one of the best-performing assets globally on a risk-adjusted basis in 2025
Bitcoin's outstanding performance is not only due to record-breaking capital inflows, but also driven by the price increase in 2024. According to risk-adjusted return metrics, Bitcoin ranks third among global assets, behind only a few top-tier assets. MicroStrategy, the self-proclaimed "Bitcoin Treasury," has particularly outstanding Sharpe ratio performance.
- @intangiblecoins
At least one top wealth management platform will recommend clients allocate 2% or more of their portfolio to Bitcoin in 2025
Due to factors such as investment familiarization, internal education, and compliance requirements, no major wealth management firm has officially included Bitcoin allocation in their investment recommendation portfolios. But this situation will change in 2025, further driving capital inflows and AUM growth for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs.
- @intangiblecoins
Five Nasdaq 100 companies and five countries will announce the inclusion of Bitcoin on their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds
Whether for strategic needs, portfolio diversification, or trade settlement considerations, Bitcoin will gradually enter the balance sheets of major corporations and national-level investors. Especially non-aligned countries, countries with large sovereign wealth funds, and even countries at odds with the U.S. will actively acquire Bitcoin through mining or other means.
- JW
Bitcoin developers will reach consensus on the next protocol upgrade in 2025
Since 2020, Bitcoin core developers have been discussing how to enhance the programmability of transactions by introducing new opcodes. By the end of 2024, the most supported opcodes include OP_CTV (BIP 119) and OP_CAT (BIP 347). Although Bitcoin's soft fork consensus is extremely rare and time-consuming, it is expected that consensus will be reached in 2025 to jointly promote the introduction of OP_CTV, OP_CSFS, and/or OP_CAT. However, this upgrade will not be activated in 2025.
- @hiroto_btc
More than half of the top 20 market cap listed Bitcoin mining companies will announce transformations or partnerships with hyperscalers, AI, or high-performance computing (HPC) companies in 2025
As AI's demand for computing power increases, Bitcoin miners will gradually retrofit existing facilities, build new infrastructure, or co-deploy mining farms with HPC companies. This trend will limit the annual growth rate of global computing power, which is expected to reach 1.1 zetahash by the end of 2025.
These forecasts outline a potential blueprint for the cryptocurrency market in 2025, filled with both opportunities and challenges.
- @intangiblecoins, @SimritDhinsa
The size of the Bitcoin DeFi market is expected to double in 2025
As of the end of 2024, over $11 billion in wrapped Bitcoin (such as WBTC) has been locked in DeFi smart contracts. Over 70% of the locked Bitcoin is used as collateral for lending protocols. Additionally, there are around $4.2 billion in deposits through the largest Bitcoin staking protocol, Babylon. The current total valuation of the Bitcoin DeFi market is $15.4 billion, and it is expected to see significant growth by 2025. This growth will come from multiple directions, including existing DeFi protocols on Ethereum L1/L2, new DeFi protocols on Bitcoin L2, and staking platforms like Babylon. Key drivers for the doubling of the market include: 150% year-over-year growth in cbBTC supply, 30% increase in WBTC supply, Babylon reaching $8 billion in TVL, and $4 billion in DeFi TVL on new Bitcoin L2 networks.
- @hiroto_btc
Ethereum price is expected to break through $5,500 in 2025
With the easing of regulatory pressure on DeFi and staking, Ethereum will reach a new all-time high in 2025. Collaboration between DeFi and traditional finance may unfold in a new regulatory sandbox environment, allowing traditional capital markets to delve deeper into public blockchains, with Ethereum and its ecosystem being the primary beneficiary. Meanwhile, enterprises will gradually experiment with Ethereum-based Layer 2 networks. Some public blockchain-based games may find product-market fit, and NFT trading volume will also see a significant rebound.
Ethereum staking rate is expected to exceed 50% in 2025
The U.S. government may provide clearer regulatory guidance for the crypto industry, such as allowing spot ETH ETPs to stake a portion of their held ETH. Demand for staking will continue to grow next year, and by the end of 2025, the amount of Ethereum staked may exceed half of its circulating supply. This will compel Ethereum developers to more seriously consider adjusting the network's monetary policy. Additionally, the rise in staking rate will further drive demand and value inflows for staking pools (such as Lido and Coinbase) and restaking protocols (such as EigenLayer and Symbiotic).
-@christine_dkim
The ETH/BTC ratio will drop below 0.03 in 2025 but rebound to above 0.06 by the end of the year
The ETH/BTC ratio is one of the most closely watched trading pairs in the crypto market. Since Ethereum completed the "Merge" upgrade and transitioned to Proof-of-Stake in 2022, this ratio has continued to decline. However, the expected changes in the regulatory environment are expected to particularly support Ethereum and its application layer, especially DeFi, reigniting investors' interest in the world's second-largest blockchain.
- @intangiblecoins
Layer 2 economic activity is expected to surpass other Alt L1 networks by 2025
The share of Layer 2 network fees (currently in the single digits) is expected to exceed 25% of the total fees of Alt L1 networks by the end of the year. As Layer 2 networks approach their expansion limits in early 2025, transaction fees may spike frequently, forcing the networks to adjust gas limits and blob market parameters. However, technical solutions (such as Reth clients or alternative virtual machines like Arbitrum Stylus) will improve the efficiency of Rollups, keeping transaction costs within acceptable ranges.
- @FullNodeChuck
DeFi may enter the "dividend era" in 2025, with on-chain applications expected to distribute at least $1 billion in value to users and token holders
As DeFi regulation becomes clearer, the value-sharing mechanisms of on-chain applications will be expanded. Projects like Ethena and Aave have already started discussing or implementing fee mechanisms through proposals, which will allow users to benefit directly. Other protocols that previously opposed such mechanisms, such as Uniswap and Lido, may re-evaluate their positions due to regulatory clarity and competitive pressure. A more permissive regulatory environment and increased on-chain activity suggest that protocols may conduct buybacks and direct income distributions more frequently.
- @ZackPokorny_
On-chain governance may be revitalized in 2025, with applications experimenting with futurist governance models
The total number of active voters in on-chain governance is expected to grow by at least 20%. On-chain governance has long faced two main issues: low participation and lack of voting diversity (most proposals pass with overwhelming majorities). However, with the easing of regulatory pressure and the success of Polymarket, these two issues are expected to improve by 2025. By then, more applications will transition from traditional governance models to futurist governance models, which will increase voting diversity and optimize governance outcomes.
- @ZackPokorny_
- @FullNodeChuck
- @hiroto_btc
The world's four largest custodian banks are expected to start offering digital asset custody services by 2025
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) plans to provide a policy path for national banks to custody digital assets, which will drive the world's four largest custodian banks - BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, and Citibank - to launch digital asset custody services by 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
At least ten traditional finance-backed stablecoins are expected to be launched by 2025
From 2021 to 2024, the stablecoin market has grown rapidly, with 202 projects currently, some of which have established close ties with traditional finance (TradFi). Not only is the number of projects increasing, but the growth rate of their trading volume also far exceeds traditional payment networks, such as ACH (about 1% annual growth) and Visa (about 7% annual growth). By 2024, stablecoins are gradually being integrated into the global financial system. For example, the OCC-licensed FV Bank already supports direct stablecoin deposits, while Japan's three major banks are collaborating with the Pax project on SWIFT to enable faster and lower-cost cross-border fund transfers. Payment platforms are also actively building stablecoin infrastructure, such as PayPal launching the PYUSD stablecoin on the Solana blockchain, and Stripe acquiring Bridge to natively support stablecoins. Furthermore, asset management giants like VanEck and BlackRock are also partnering with stablecoin projects and actively positioning themselves in this field. As the regulatory environment becomes clearer, traditional financial institutions will further integrate stablecoins into their businesses to seize market opportunities and lay the foundation for future development.
- JW
The total supply of stablecoins is expected to double by 2025, exceeding $400 billion
The application of stablecoins in the areas of payments, remittances, and settlements is growing rapidly. With the gradual clarification of regulations on existing stablecoin issuers as well as traditional banks, trusts, and custodians, the supply of stablecoins is expected to experience explosive growth by 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
Tether's market share is expected to fall below 50% by 2025, challenged by yield-bearing stablecoins
Tether uses the income from its USDT reserves to fund its investment portfolio, but other stablecoin issuers and protocols are attracting users through revenue-sharing models, which will cause existing users to shift from Tether to yield-bearing solutions. For example, the USDC rewards paid by Coinbase on its exchange and wallet balances will become a powerful draw, driving the entire DeFi ecosystem and potentially being integrated by fintech companies to enable new business models. As a response, Tether may start distributing the yields on its collateral assets to USDT holders, or even launch a competitive yield-bearing product, such as a market-neutral stablecoin.
- @FullNodeChuck
Crypto venture capital (VC) total capital investment is expected to exceed $150 billion by 2025, a year-over-year increase of over 50%
With declining interest rates and an improving crypto regulatory environment, investor interest in venture capital will significantly increase, driving a surge in venture capital activity. Crypto venture capital fundraising has historically lagged behind broader crypto market trends, and a "catch-up" phenomenon may occur in the next four quarters.
- @hiroto_btc, @intangiblecoins
Stablecoin legislation is expected to be passed by the U.S. Congress and signed by President Trump by 2025, but market structure legislation may not pass
Legislation establishing a registration and regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers is expected to pass with bipartisan support and be signed into law before the end of 2025. The growth in the supply of U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins will consolidate the global dominance of the U.S. dollar and further drive the development of the U.S. Treasury market. Combined with the relaxation of restrictions on banks, trusts, and custodians, the adoption of stablecoins is expected to grow significantly. However, market structure legislation (such as registration, disclosure, and regulatory requirements for token issuers and exchanges, or adjusting existing SEC and CFTC rules to cover these entities) is expected not to be completed and signed into law by 2025 due to its complexity.
- @intangiblecoins
The U.S. government is not expected to purchase Bitcoin in 2025, but may establish holdings using existing reserves and promote discussions on expanding Bitcoin reserve policies across government departments and agencies
- @intangiblecoins
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to investigate Prometheum, the first "special purpose broker-dealer"
Prometheum, a previously obscure broker-dealer, suddenly obtained a novel broker-dealer license in 2023 and publicly supported SEC Chairman Gensler's views on the status of digital asset securities, raising widespread questions. Its CEO was questioned by Republican lawmakers at a congressional hearing, and according to FINRA records, Prometheum's alternative trading system (ATS) has not yet executed any trades. Republicans have called for the Department of Justice and SEC to investigate whether Prometheum has "ties to China", and there are also allegations of irregularities in its fundraising and financial reporting. Regardless of whether an investigation is launched, the "special purpose broker-dealer" license is expected to be abolished by 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
Dogecoin may break $1 for the first time in 2025, with a market cap expected to reach $100 billion
As the world's most famous and longest-running meme coin (memecoin), Dogecoin's market performance is expected to reach new heights in 2025. However, its peak market value may be surpassed by the budget cuts of the "Government Efficiency Department". The department is expected to identify and successfully implement measures to reduce Dogecoin's market value peak in 2025.
- @intangiblecoins
Disclaimer: Members of Galaxy and/or Galaxy Research hold Bit, Bit, and Dogecoin. Many forecasts have not been shared, and there are more forecasts that can be made. These forecasts are not investment advice and do not constitute an offer, recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any securities (including Galaxy securities). These forecasts represent the views of the Galaxy Research team as of December 2024 and do not necessarily reflect the position of Galaxy or any of its affiliates. These forecasts will not be updated.
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