Pure dry goods, no false hope.
Before you start reading, I hope you can temporarily put aside your existing prejudices and take a few minutes to carefully look at the content I'm about to share.
From a macro perspective, the investment themes of Web3 can be divided into two major categories: underlying infrastructure (infra) and application scenarios (apps).
Investments can be divided into two types: one is an investment that may seem mundane in the short term but could bring substantial returns in the long run; the other is an investment that is exciting in the short term but may ultimately be worthless.
Most cryptocurrency investors enter this market to pursue rapid and substantial gains, and they are willing to take on the corresponding risks.
Therefore, people are more inclined to choose cyclical investments - this type of investment is usually short-term and only effective during specific bull market cycles.
2025 will be the "year of regulation" in the cryptocurrency field.
The United States and some other major economies plan to introduce relevant regulations within their borders. The introduction of these regulations will not only enhance the trust of traditional investors (especially the older generation), but will also screen out a few truly promising cryptocurrencies - only those projects with solid fundamentals and stable cash flow support can stand out.
We can foresee that the market will welcome a new wave of traditional investors. These investors have "old money" and will be entering the cryptocurrency field for the first time.
They will not blindly invest just because of market hype, but will carefully study the projects, read the reports and data, and only make investment decisions if they make logical sense.
Against this backdrop, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) will become an investment theme that is favored by traditional investors, and another will be the first-layer protocols (L1) of the blockchain.
However, since the market capitalization ceiling of DeFi projects is relatively low, their growth potential is greater, and they are highly aligned with fundamentals and data. This year, some DeFi projects have already generated over $100 million in revenue, which will undoubtedly attract the attention of traditional investors.
The capital volume of traditional investors is huge, and sufficient capital is the key to the healthy growth of the market. Don't forget that many institutional investors are also dominated by traditional investors.
It can be foreseen that DeFi will ultimately become one of the important deployment directions for top-tier institutional investors.
BlackRock has already started collaborating with DeFi projects, and this trend is gradually taking shape.
DeFi is not a cyclical investment; it is more like a long-term investment, just like how investors have viewed BTC and ETH in the past.
The long-term potential of AAVE may be seen as comparable to ETH.
When you invest in blue-chip DeFi projects, you can focus on long-term development;
And when you choose to invest in a brand new DeFi native project, you can consider short-term gains, as these projects may also bring returns of multiple times or even higher.
In a DeFi-dominated cryptocurrency market, many emerging projects will emerge, and some established projects will also regain attention. You will see price surge waves around these projects.
In the DeFi field, many blue-chip applications (such as Uniswap) are planning to transform into underlying infrastructure projects. This transformation will further enhance the value potential of the Token, and there may be some projects next year that announce adjustments to their fee mechanisms, for which you need to be prepared.
These changes will inject strong momentum into the development narrative of DeFi.
I expect DeFi to dominate at least two quarters of next year, just like how AI performed this year.
As for AI, I believe 2025 will be the year when AI will be widely criticized in popular culture due to its rapid and uncontrolled expansion.
The discussion of "responsible AI" will become a focus.
Market activities around crypto AI infrastructure, AI agents, and Initial Agentic Offerings may enter an adjustment period due to the narrative of "responsible AI".
But before that, I expect AI agents to experience a bubble-like growth.
There are currently 13,000 agents in the market, and I expect this number to grow to at least 100,000.
Subsequently, we may enter a bubble phase and burst the following year.
The specific quarter in which this will occur will depend on the timing of AI regulatory-related events.
Regulation will also stimulate interest in privacy infrastructure, so some major projects involving confidential DeFi, privacy computing, privacy storage, and privacy reasoning will receive more attention, and this attention will also be reflected in their asset performance (PA).
The MEME market will remain active.
Although regulatory authorities may not support it, people will always find ways to get in, as it is impossible to completely prevent it.
Speculators will continue to seek opportunities among the 100,000 new coins added every day.
However, some established MEME, such as DOGE and PEPE, may attract more serious investor attention.
Even if you don't like MEME, you should consider allocating a portion of your investment position to them.
2025 will also be the year when mobile Web3 wallets and super apps begin to emerge.
Recently, a Web3 wallet company called Exodus went public on NASDAQ with a valuation of $1.2 billion, which may drive a speculative frenzy next year related to Tokens of Web3 wallets with strong revenue performance.
AI and DeFi will become the two core narratives next year:
- DeFi is expected to dominate;
- AI intelligences may enter a bubble stage;
- MEME speculation will attract more participation;
- Privacy and DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure network) will emerge in a certain quarter;
Web3 wallets will receive more attention and drive mainstream adoption through more user-friendly onboarding and better experiences.
That's all I have to share.
Please note that I am neither an astrologer nor an expert in the cryptocurrency field. I'm just an ordinary person with some random thoughts about the market, so don't take my views too seriously.
