At the end of the article on December 25, a reader left the following comment:
"I have been following you for a long time, ...the meme you once hyped turned out to be a complete failure. The magic I supported is almost back to zero, while the CRV I cleared out has surged strongly."
Every point mentioned by this reader is related to the logic of the investment process.
If I were to follow my own logic, this reader has deviations in the understanding of each point.
One or the other of these deviations can occasionally be seen in the comments of other investors.
However, the fact that these deviations are systematically concentrated in a single comment is not common, so I feel it is necessary to borrow this comment to systematically sort out and share the logic I have shared before.
I cannot judge how long this reader has been following me, but as long as you start from my articles in 2022, the issues mentioned in the comment have all been discussed in my previous articles with the underlying logic.
From this comment, I can clearly see that the standard by which this reader judges the current value of these tokens is only one: the current price.
Because he did not analyze the track these projects are in, did not mention the fundamentals of these projects, and did not talk about the teams of these projects - these are the core factors I use to evaluate the value of projects.
Is the price important? Of course it is, the price of the investment target is the ultimate standard for judging our investment returns.
But I have made a clear classification of the perspective and method of evaluating the price: it depends on the stage of the market.
In a bear market, what should we focus on when looking at the price?
It is whether it is low enough and worth buying.
More specifically, in a bear market, if we hold a target, we are optimistic about its fundamentals and believe in its team, our preference for the price should be the lower the better - because this way we can buy the target we are optimistic about at a lower price if we still want to continue buying.
Of course, there is an exception here that needs to be noted: if the price of a token is absurdly high, even in a bear market, I will also consider selling or staying out.
But this situation is quite rare. In my experience over the years, it only happened once when CRV was just listed in 2020 and the price was inflated.
So I won't go into detail about this exception in this article.
Next, in a bull market, what should we focus on when looking at the price?
At that time, we need to focus on whether it is too high and whether we should sell.
So the stage of the market is different, our perspective on the price is completely different.
So, are we in a bull market or a bear market now?
My judgment criteria have been repeatedly shared with everyone: I think a bull market is only when Bitcoin and Ethereum both hit new highs.
By my standards, it is certainly not a bull market now. Since it is not a bull market, I will categorize it as a bear market across the board.
Since it is a bear market, for a target that I am optimistic about, when its price is lower, according to my consistent logic, investors should be happier.
However, if any of the three elements of the track, fundamentals, and team of a project undergo extremely unfavorable changes, at this time, according to my logic, I will not care whether the price is high or low, and will unhesitatingly sell it.
So, going back to the several tokens mentioned by the above reader, if he is optimistic about their tracks, if he believes in their fundamentals, and if he thinks their teams are fine, then he should not be depressed just because the prices are lower.
Conversely, if the investor is depressed about the above tokens, the reason can only be that one or more of the track, fundamentals, and team have problems, not the price.
I cleared out CRV because its team was unbearable to me.
In the article where I shared the clearance of CRV, I clearly wrote: I estimate that when the bull market comes and the sector rotation comes to DeFi, CRV will likely surge again.
But that price increase was not the reason I considered selling or not selling CRV at the time.
Later, in a live Twitter sharing, an audience asked a similar question, and I answered more bluntly:
I hope the projects I hold are the ones I don't have to worry about their teams getting into trouble even when I'm asleep. I couldn't stand the antics of the CRV team, so I didn't participate in it anymore.
As for Magic, my judgment criteria are the same as above.
At least so far, I am still optimistic about the gaming track it is in, I still believe its fundamentals have not changed much (although there has been no major progress, but there have been no major problems either), I think the team's performance is not good, but not bad either, and they have persisted through the bear market, which is not easy.
So I'm still holding it.
Of course, if the bull market comes next year and the project still doesn't show much improvement in the track, construction, and team, resulting in no highlights even in the bull market, then this investment will be a failure and I'll accept it, and I'll carefully find the reasons behind it.
But that will be a matter for the bull market next year, at least for now I don't care about its price at all.
If I care, I will only care about how the gaming track is now, how the team is now, and whether there are any new developments in the project.
As for Meme, I have always believed that it is the greatest invention in the Bitcoin ecosystem in this cycle and the technology most likely to create new miracles for Bitcoin.
As a reader, you can choose not to pay attention to such frontier technology, but as an author, from the perspective of sharing knowledge, not sharing it would be too disrespectful to this historical moment. Because regardless of whether this technology and ecosystem will succeed in the future, it will leave a deep mark in the history of Bitcoin's development.
However, as an investor wanting to participate in this ecosystem, one must have the courage to accept a highly likely consequence - the project going to zero.
If you are not prepared for this, and think that as long as there is a new technology, participating in it will definitely make a profit, this cognition is problematic - history has too many brilliant technologies that were eventually submerged in the historical process due to various reasons, and they left behind not only the fruits of victory, but also valuable lessons.
Moreover, the final state of Meme is not something I can judge now according to my logic, I have already written in my articles: I will give it some more time, and see how its ecosystem develops when the bull market comes next year.
So every point in this comment deviates greatly from the logic I have shared, but I have detailed all these logics in my articles not long ago.
My writing is different from many other authors, my core is not to share investment targets, but to share the interesting new scenarios and new technologies in the ecosystem, and to share the logic and thinking behind the investment.
Even if I solemnly recommend investment targets, I have only recommended two, which are Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If you don't pay attention to the logic and only focus on the targets, even if Mr. Buffett himself points the way, you won't be able to gain anything - wave after wave of Wall Street investors have been imitating the old man's holdings, but how many of them have made a profit?
Why? Because they don't understand the logic behind the old man's buying those stocks, so the end result can only be a vague loss.
So I believe that sharing investment logic is the key to recording and sharing investments. If the logic is right, readers can learn from the experience; if the logic is wrong, readers can learn from the lessons. Both positive and negative aspects are valuable.
Understanding the logic I share is the key to reading my articles, and also the key to reading any other author's articles.
In addition, I always believe that for most ordinary people, their ultimate wealth is the grace of God. And to obtain this grace requires a certain level of cognition and cultivation. Without a certain level of cognition and cultivation, wealth will not visit.
Our Twitter account was recently banned again, this is the second time we have been banned.
We are very helpless and puzzled about this: we have never posted any inappropriate comments on Twitter, we rarely interact with other accounts, and we have no commercial activities at all, we don't understand which rule we have violated?
But we have registered a new Twitter account again, purely to leave a backup for the articles, and also to leave an open space for us to freely communicate with readers.
Our new Twitter account is @xiaoyan3171
This Saturday (January 4, 2025), we will have our first online exchange on this new Twitter account, and you can post your questions in the link below.
https://x.com/xiaoyan3171/status/1873556087359836200
